I think V has very few bluffs here since:

1) A high and K high have showdown value against counterfeited 55-22
2) The bet/check/bet line is just way too often for value in my experience


Having said that, hard to say what V's value betting range would be without reads on him. If he has a bluffy image and he's good he could be as light as JJ-AA. The hands that make the most sense are TT, 66, 77, 6x. I think this would be a poor line with Tx but it's definitely within the realm of possibility for other people to play it this way.

I wouldn't think Tx is in Hero's range because of the river check, since I don't think you would let it check through two streets with top boat. Since I don't believe hero has any Tx or 6x, a big bet here seems like he wants to blow you off of Ax or PP's. If villain is taking this line correctly, then he does need to turn up with a boat sometimes, but I'm not buying it here. Of course, if he has river'd a boat with 77 that would suck.

Let's go mike cough up those results


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I had an under repped hand which made it tougher. I had JJ. I flopped a coin and lost and had to fold.

Why not b/f or x/c river?

5/10 is way over the stakes I play, so I'm just curious on your interpretation of villain's line.

I really really wish I had bet the river. I dont think hes ever bluff raising me when he has to be afraid I have a T so its an easy fold if he raises. I wasnt expecting him to bet that much when I checked. I wouldve def called if he bet less. So he either made a good bluff or a bad value bet.

From the safety of my keyboard, I think I call here a pretty high percentage of the time. A big part of this is that you've called pre, x/c OTF, checked turn, and checked river. I don't think there is any reason for the villain to think you have a hand that can call this bet, which makes the bet more bluffy to me. To me this bet looks an awful lot like he is trying to blow you off of a chop with Ax. 7x I would think would pretty much always check back and Tx would size smaller to try to get a call. Alas, we shall never know.

I agree with all of that, but he could also have AA-QQ and be hoping I call with Ax or something like 99.

True, I didn't consider that.

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What’s the point of including the fact that you’ve 3! four times in an hour if you’re going to flat JJ from the SB. Why even keep your hand hidden in the first place?

If you decided to play JJ super unconventional than you can’t chicken out on the river when your hand is super under repped.

To give you an idea of what villain might be putting me on. I doubt hes putting me on a hand this strong which will affect how he plays his hand.

The main thing I was trying to figure out though is what does villains line mean. He raised the button which may or not mean a lot. He Cbet HU which doesnt mean much at all. Then he checks turn but bets full pot on the river.

Ive seen people take this line before and it almost never gets called probably because just about nobody on the other side would play a strong hand that way.

Normally a hand goes more like this...

Player A raises
Player B calls from the blind...or maybe he limp/called. Either way hes OOP.

Flop is something like K74. Player B checks to the raiser. Player A Cbets. Player B calls if he has a K or maybe 76 or 88. Turn goes X/X a lot of the time. Player B now bets the river and player A folds.

But what if Player B checks the river again? This is when I see Player A pound the river for full pot sometimes. What does that mean? Nobody will believe that player B checked the turn AND river with a real hand. Sometimes player A still gives up but once in a while I see them bet full pot and never get called.

Intuitively it means Player B has SDV and thinks it's more profitable to x/c than to lead out because he doesn't think Player A has much of a hand. Player A can also have laid a trap by checking back Kx on the turn. B/X/B is a really good line to take by Player A with Kx on this dry flop.

The more important question is why you didn't 3! JJ pre. After 3! four times in an hour and then having JJ in the SB facing a BTN raise over a few limps is a dream scenario. This is like a once-in-a-session opportunity to really make some $$$. Complete waste of a hand and your image to flat JJ there.

Mike I remember Tom Dwan saying that 5/10 was harder than 50/100 in an interview. Take it into consideration I believe he was genuine. Highest I ever played was 2/5 cash and that was a super aggressive tough game for me.

I just don't see what hand in your range villain is targeting you with his range that has you beat. I don't think Tx or 6x bets in this manner. I gave QQ+ some thought but even that I think is going to bet smaller. You haven't shown any aggression, so 6x, Tx and overpairs are not what I think he has ranged you with. Your range looks like Ax overcards or PPs of 99 and lower. Maybe villain had QQ+ and is targeting 99/88 specifically. Ranging one villain that narrow is tough; outleveling him and figuring out his range for you to 12 combos is even tougher.

I think what makes the most sense is villain is trying to blow you off of Ax, blow you off 88/99, or villain has 88/99 and is value betting. Certainly not a simple spot though.

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I would never try to argue against that. My 3 bets so far had been AA, AJs, JTs and AQs. The hand just before this one I 3 bet AJs and Cbet a KKQ flop and took it down. This hand I was just mixing up my play which I thought worked perfectly until he bet full pot on the river and confused me. I dont post many hands anymore but posted this one because its nagging at me. I will never know if I cost myself or saved myself money.

Villain busted out QQ vs AK all in preflop and left not too long after this hand.

I would agree that JJ should be a value bet on the river first to act but I don't think being underrepped matters here when deciding to call the river bet. Realistically it only matters if he's value betting a worse hand which would be 99-88 and the chances of that with this bet sizing are slim to none. Theoretically I suppose it could matter from a game theory point of view because of being "too high up in our range" but 1) You said there are some Tx in your range, and 2) Generally players don't look to exploit here because they don't expect other players to fold often enough in these spots.

Maybe this specific player in this specific spot bluffed you but I think in the long run against the general player pool folding is the best play.

Idk about this, I make polarized river bets and I play considerably smaller stakes than 5/10.

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It feels like 76s 65s, 77, 88, 99. He doesn't have AA, KK, or QQ based on what you've said, and only one combo of JJ left.

I guess your hand looks like A-high the way you've played it, so it's possible he's trying to blow you off a hand that got counterfeited (44, 33?) or off a chop (as he has A-high himself).

I think you folded the best hand. But I'm a recfish so YMMV.

Why can't V have AA/KK/QQ? His line through the turn seems consistent with these holdings.

V certainly can have these holdings. He can also have a ton of Ax and 88 or 99. The question is what is more likely to bet full pot here?

1.) all the Ax bluffs can/will go full pot to blow hero off of a chop or 88/99
2.) 88/99 that villain might think is good because H has underrepped his hand
3.) QQ+ that is targeting 88/99 or believes Hero will call with Ax.

On top of this their is always the possibility that villain has Tx or 6x and is playing it... strangely.

Tough spot.

Line seems consistent with 22-99, excluding 66 and 77.

I know you are kicking yourself for not betting the river, but that is just because he bombed it after you checked. Since we have SDV, I would hate to b/f the river vs a decent player. That being said, you have to check the river with the idea that you will call almost all bets, including PSB.

As an aside, there is close to 0 chance V has a Ten as the check turn/bomb river with the literal nuts makes no sense as a value line UNLESS he had seen you make some ridic hero calls earlier (which I doubt he had seen).

JJ is an easy call on the river, no reason to bet.

I take villains line for value a lot with this sizing id have 10x alot. The huge sizing is meant to look like a missed FD, counterfeit two pair etc...But Id also bomb 6x, overpairs, straights and straights vs good villains and calling stations. In the end most lines that make no sense from fish are bluffs and from good regs are for value.

This looks so valuey.

I'm putting villain mostly on Tx here with some overpairs and some bluffs.

I think that pocket pairs will sometimes bet/fold the turn (particularly weak pairs like 88/99/JJ) and I think that bluffs will often do the same. When he checks back turn and pots river, I think he has Tx about 50% of the time here and we can safely fold our entire range below boats.

Polarizing bet on River. I think it’s more likely it’s value than a bluff. I agree with some of the other posters that we should also add QQ-AA in to villains range. I’ve seen this line with Aces and Kings on similar board texture. Villian is basically betting enough on the river so only a 10 or a boat raises, and then he can confidently fold to a jam. He believes that No one is bluff raising a pot sized bet on that river without having him beat. I think you made a good fold.