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Old 10-09-2013, 12:16 AM   #1
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: CT
Posts: 353
What to do with Straight Flush Draw?

The current bad beat jackpot is about $200,000.
The winner gets 25% and the loser gets 50%

Villain 1 MP ($200): OMC, ABC, just sat down

Villain 2 SB ($300): ABC, break-even reg, has been playing straightforward

Hero UTG (300): image is tight and passive due to being card dead

Hero has 109

Preflop: hero limps and it limps around 6 handed

Flop(12): 8J2
-Villain 2 bets 15, hero calls 15, Villain 1 raises to 50, Villain 2 calls, Hero calls
-Thoughts: My plan was to fold if Villain 2 folds due to bad pot and implied odds but once villain 2 calls I feel I am close to break-even to slight +EV

Turn (172): 8J28
-Villain 2 checks, hero bets 85, and Villain 1 snap shoves, hero calls
-thoughts: the decision to bet was because I didn't want to be priced out of drawing to a straight flush in case villain 1 had quads and in which case I would've made $50,000

After thinking about this, I came to the conclusion that there is almost zero chance that villain bombs the turn with quads and most likely would've checked due to the fact that everyone is drawing dead. Villain's most likely actions would be check or bet (<$50). If villain bombs the turn it is most likely with a hand that could've been drawn out on.

What to do?
Looking back on this hand I would've checked hoping to get a cheap showdown. I would've folded to a shove or any large bet. Does anyone call the shove on the very unlikely chance that villain actually has quads?
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Old 10-09-2013, 01:26 AM   #2
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Paratrooper1999 on Twitch
Posts: 2,032
Re: What to do with Straight Flush Draw?

Never let a bad beat Jackpot dictate your decision making. It will likely get checked to the river and Jam Jam there.
As for the hand, you have odds on the flop to continue. You add equity on the turn but could be drawing to 2 outs against the boat or quads. A full house would likely not jam here. J8 is more likely or maybe JJ/22. If he has those combos, he is likely checking or betting small on the turn. If you check, you probably get to the river very inexpensively.
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Old 10-09-2013, 01:32 AM   #3
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: The Desert
Posts: 13,365
Re: What to do with Straight Flush Draw?

fold flop

youre not getting the odds to draw, youre out of position, and youre 2nd to act in a 6-way pot that was led out by first to act. unless youre positive that its going to call around, its a fold.
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Old 10-09-2013, 01:41 AM   #4
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Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 238
Re: What to do with Straight Flush Draw?

I don't understand. You're worried about getting priced out of a supposed $50K pot, and so you bet so that you have to call less (but still putting in the same total amount)? This reasoning makes no sense. A lot of the time you're donating to a full house here on the turn, so just check-fold and definitely do not bet.

The bad beat jackpot possibility is so astronomically unlikely that it shouldn't even factor into your decision.
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Old 10-09-2013, 02:24 PM   #5
Sebastes Pinneger
Join Date: Jun 2010
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Posts: 721
Re: What to do with Straight Flush Draw?

Should have bought 85 lottery tickets.
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Old 10-09-2013, 04:40 PM   #6
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Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: CA and Vegas
Posts: 12,294
Re: What to do with Straight Flush Draw?

Flop call is fine, you have the odds (direct + implied) to draw to one street so if you bink on turn and shove and get a call it works out to +EV.

Your turn bet is absolutely horrendous. Either shove or fold, but betting $85 is just the absolute worst thing you could bet.

As played, turn is a puke c/f unless we somehow get around 3:1 on a call.

Lastly, NEVER let your play be dictated by a bad beat jack pot... Just ignore it and play your game.

If a villain had quads, he is NEVER betting and hoping that the BBJP gets hit
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