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Old 01-07-2014, 10:59 AM   #1
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 225
What could the villain have?

Full ring, 5/10 at local casino. Been playing for a couple of hours.

Hero: active, playing a lot of hands in position. Started with 800 and have ~1800 when hand started

Villian 1: standard TAG regular. Not much history

Hand: dealt Q9s to hero on the button. Villian 2 raises to 35 $ from UTG+2, Villian 1calls from MP and Hero calls

Pot (120)
Flop: Q94 rainbow. V2 CBETS 80, V1 calls, Hero raises to 250 total, both calls

Pot: (870)
Turn: 2 completing rainbow. checked to Hero, Hero bets 615, V2 folds, V1 calls

Pot (2100)
River: Q, checked to Hero, Hero shoves 975, Villian folds after a long time

I cant put villian on a reasonable hand. Could he be on OESD? Thoughts?

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Old 01-07-2014, 11:09 AM   #2
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Been playing for a couple hours. How about some more information about the room/table/image so this isn't a mostly pointless guessing game?

As played in a vacuum: JTs is the only reasonable hand. No Q is folding OTR, no set is not raising OTF or OTT.

Edit: I discount KK+, AK since he didn't 3bet pre. I can't see most PPs calling down to the river with 1-2 overs on the board.
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Old 01-07-2014, 11:14 AM   #3
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Nh. Wp. My guess is AA. (Maybe JT)
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Old 01-07-2014, 11:44 AM   #4
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V can have AA KK and you are repping extreme strength (AQ KQ 99) so it was a relatively easy fold if he had AA KK imo
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Old 01-07-2014, 11:46 AM   #5
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Re: What could the villain have?

Villain is described as a standard TAG regular. I highly doubt he plays J10 this way. He's not getting the right price on the turn for a bare OESD (not even an over). Why would he tank fold the river unless it's pure hollywood.

I could see him folding a weak Q on the river. Say he's sitting there w/ Q10 or QJ, what exactly does he beat on the river? The only hand he could possibly beat is if hero got crazy with J10. Hero's range is heavily weighted towards a stronger Q (AQ, KQ, Q9) or a set (99 or 44 would fit perfectly to how hero played). I feel like villain's range has a lot of Q's in it so hero wouldn't bluff shove into that river.

Like some other people have suggested I think a weirdly played AA or KK could be in his range too. He tries to get tricky by not 3betting pre and then once he sees the flop, he is just in call down mode until he gets the worst river possibly in his eyes.

So I think he could have AA, KK, QJ, Q10, or maaaaaaybe J10.
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Old 01-07-2014, 11:55 AM   #6
Join Date: Jan 2014
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I would say AA or KK. I don't think he is likely to call a large re-raise OOP with a Q weak kicker or a draw. I wouldn't expect him to call such a high turn bet with a draw. His going into the tank on the river could just be him cursing himself for having to lay down the high pair. Nice hand for you OP!
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Old 01-07-2014, 12:01 PM   #7
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Re: What could the villain have?

JT could chase to river here, but would be very unlikely for a TAG villain. In any case, that is a trivial fold on river, villain has no showdown value at that point. Something like JJ/TT or A9 are possible but highly unlikely. They may have put a lot of draws in your range but when you shove this river villain may decide you have to have QX and fold. AA/KK are reasonable and more likely but are not beating anything but bluffs on river.

A QX is very likely if villain was really considering a call on river, something like QJ/QT/QK that is beating all of your bluffs but has to fear your having a better QX or a boat. A nitty or really good villain might even manage to fold AQ after the super powerful line you took here.
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Old 01-07-2014, 12:06 PM   #8
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Re: What could the villain have?

AA/KK/Qx ... wouldn't take a long time to fold OESD unless he was just trying to save face a little bit. Would play back at you with 99 on Turn IMO unless you are just so super tight that he could fold that on River. I have 2 opponents I could fold 99 to in this spot if I was V with how the hand played out.

I like bet sizing but could possibly put out 'only' $600 on River if I ever thought V could fold out here. V is putting you on 99/Q9/44 exactly to fold out Qx here, not so sure that AA/KK even think too long to fold this River after you have bet out on 3 streets. GL
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Old 01-07-2014, 12:14 PM   #9
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I don't follow all the bottom set talk. You're saying V would play a set the whole way, boats up, and be worried given the action that Hero has exclusively Q9, Q4, Q2?

I'm not buying it.
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