$2/4, 11.30pm.

H: $295, mid 20's, white, tag.
V: $450, mid 40's I'm guessing, asian. never seen him in the poker room before i can't really get a grasp on him. in about an hr and a half i've seen him limp/call/fold pf mainly and only raise once to $25 which found no callers.
two notable hands:
1) i raised pf with AK OOP and he flat me. flop was 3 diamonds and an A and i c/bet and he called, because he was seemingly playing so tight i slowed down and called his pot sized river bet to only see him turn over KdQd for the nuts.
2) he tried to pull off a weird bluff otr with 3rd pair against a station with a large pot size bet

Action:
Raised UTG+2 to $20, H flats with KQ. CO and BTN flat, V in BB calls. Pot: $102.

Flop - K27
utg+2 checks, H decided to go ahead here and bet with top pair on this pretty dry board and made it $75. CO and BTN fold, V raises all. H?

Just really confused here against this V and need help...

Given that V seemed to slow-play a flopped monster on a board where lots of cards can kill his action/hand, but bluffed for a large PSB, this weights his hand here much more towards a bluff.

Additionally, given that he made a weird unsuccessful bluff earlier, he's quite likely to be tilted/spazzy.

As such, I'm fairly happy to call here, and almost never expecting to be behind. Although there's literally no draws for V to be semi-bluffing here, given that he turned 3rd pair into a bluff earlier I wouldn't be surprised to see random 7x or 2x hands.

Regarding pre-flop, I'm folding to a $20 EP open with KQo almost every time unless UTG2 is opening wide and the players who have position on me are probably going to fold behind me. Otherwise we're setting ourselves up to play an often dominated hand without absolute position and the worst relative position. If UTG2 is a wide opener then I'm more apt to 3-bet as opposed to calling just to ensure I get heads-up or win the pot pre-flop, although with the current stack sizes this would leave us in a lot of awkward spots if he calls our 3B. If you could post your reads on UTG2 that'd be handy.

Flop bet sizing is OK if the Vs in the hand are the type to never fold TP to a single bet, but I'd consider going closer to half-pot to entice calls from 7x and 88-QQ (especially from the PFR).

Also, top-up pre, if you think you have an edge over your opponents, then there's no reason for you to be sitting below a full stack.

Btw, was this played at Crown Melbourne?

So he c/r from the big blind on the flop,
I think I am putting him on 22, 77, AK, KQ/KJ? (prob not KQ/KJ to be honest, but they could turn up here as he has a king and wants to take it now?).
I've found that middle aged Asian guys do not like to 3bet to be honest, so he could flat AK from the BB. I know this is really strange, but.... Can he turn up with KK here? Because thinking about some villains I have played against, they can somehow turn up with KK here.

You're not really beating anything besides a bluff and MAYBE KJ (which I doubt he ever shows up here with).

LOLLL, I was thinking exactly this :P

UTG2 is a pro lag, opens wide, heard the dealer call him "a famous online young poker player in australia". Treasury Brisbane.

If he's actually a pro LAG, then he's opening a much tighter range from EP than the other positions, and KQo will still be faring poorly against his EP range. The fact that other players behind us can also call makes our PF call even worse. Our stack size also gives us very little maneuverability post-flop which against a pro EP raiser is going to end badly for us more often than not.

Typical play with 2 pair. I would normally give it up here but you are playing short stacked poker.

With $200 behind and the pot is $275, how can HERO fold here? Because you are short stacked I would call here... Villains will typically jam lighter vs short stacks incorrectly but I wouldn't be surprised if he shows K7. If so, you have outs.

GL

Meh, as somebody said wouldnt be surprised to see AA or AK here, this is almost never a set given how he likes to slowplay the nuts.

Still calling because of spazz factor.

You need to win 30% of the time for the pot odds to be good here. (200$ into a 450$ pot). It's a way ahead/way behind situation so you don't have many outs if you are beatten already.

V might bluff sometimes here, but he's a TAG, so I wouldn't count on it. Maybe a 15% chance given that he showed a bluff recently and might be tilted a bit. But otherwise, I think he's almost never doing that move with a hand you beat (like 2nd, 3rd pair or a bad king, lets generously give that play 10%). So 10+15, wou'll be good 25% of the time. The rest of the time he as a set, two pairs or AK. (Also note that they were 5 post flop, so a bluff is even less likely).

You needed 30% odds to win and you only have 25%, so I think it's a -EV play, I would fold unless I have more information on the guy.

What you guys think?

I think that you're forgetting that Hero has outs if he's beat now. Not really commenting on this hand in particular, but let's look at the whole process for doing EV calcs.

If we take your assumptions and give him all the sets (which is silly as KK almost always re-raises pre and all the sets often flat flop given V's propensity to slowplay monsters) and all the two-pair combos (which is also unlikely as almost all of the 72 combos fold pre, and probably most of the K7 and K2 combos), we still have 16.8% equity when we're beaten.

According to your notion that we're ahead 25% of the time, he'll also have some outs, so let's figure our equity. 15% of the time he has air, and we have 92%ish equity. 10% of the time, he has a worse pair and is drawing to 2-pair, so we have 82%ish equity.

Now we put it all together. 75% of the time we have 16.8% equity. .75x16.8 = 12.6. .15x92 = 13.8. .10x82 = 8.2. So in your example when we are good 25% of the time, we actually only have 22% equity because sometime we'll get drawn out on, but when we're bad sometimes we'll draw out. When you add in the 12.6% equity from those times, we have 32.6% equity against the range you give him.

We are being asked to put $200 into a pot of $652 (total, if we call), so our call represents 30.8% of the pot. If we agree with your assumptions we are getting the right price to call, just barely.

All that said, fold pre. We are not deep enough (buy in full) to play KQo against a good player's EP opening range, esp not in MP. If we were button here with an MP and CO call, I could see it, but would still prefer to be deeper.

AP, why are we turning TP2ndK into a bluff on a super dry board? There are no draws to protect against. Are we trying to get value from worse Ks and PPs 88-QQ? If so, we don't need to bet 3/4 pot on a dry board with only 2.75xPot behind. Make it $50 max for value from worse, or check behind for pot control.

AP, I think CamNewton's range is way too wide, though it is as polarized as he thinks. V tends to play backwards, and there's nothing to protect against, so I think this is 22/77/K7s/K2s, a few combos of KT+ or air. You're 9.1% against the hands that beat you, but there aren't many combos available, so if we give him KTs+, we are already at 31.8% equity and should call. Throw in a couple of spazz hands and it's a clear call with near 50% equity.

I don't like the preflop call for the following reasons:
-KQo isn't strong enough to call a raise pre unless have ultimate position
-Calling lets players with position on us get a price to see a flop
-once this shapes up to be multiway, the blinds are getting a good price to continue wit a wide range.

It's the third point that applies most now, as K7s and K2s are very much in Vs range (72s maybe as well, but less likely). And I think V would check jam with a hand like K7 or K2 here. I'd also not rule out 77 or 22, though with the rainbow board, he might play a set differently.

Put it this way: with $66 in the pot, and needing to call only $16 more to see the flop, and closing the action, I'm calling with any suited king preflop. With a flop like this and four way action, I'm going for a check raise w all two pair hands post flop. If I flop just a K, I might donk bet, might check call, might check fold depending on the action and opponents. But with all 2 pair hands, I check raise here.

I wouldn't completely rule out KJ or AK but this feels like K7 or K2, and you're beat. With one pair, and ok kicker, fold.

Trouble here is preflop. Flat Calling preflop raises in middle position w KQo is a mistake.

Why? Not saying the V wouldn't, but you shouldn't. Board is silly dry, and a c/r shows a huge amount of strength. We don't have other Vs stack sizes, so we don't know for sure, but it should be easy to get stacks in with a b/b/b line in this large pot, instead of losing our customers with a c/r.

Also the original raiser has already checked. Can't hope to shove over a c bet now

Well, I'm checking and expecting someone to bet this flop. If someone bets big, as in this case, shoving might yield stacks, so it might be the play. Flat calling prob looks pretty suspicious on such a dry board bc the bet is so big so I'd think that it many cases, shoving > min raising > calling because opponent might shut down.

If we have K7s or K2s (and I realize that there aren't a lot of combos available given combinatorics) we can get paid on a shove. Just looking at posts here, folks are strongly believing KQ is good, so a shove has a strong chance to get paid.

If flop bet was smaller, I'd consider check flat with two pair. In this case, bc the flop bet is so big relative to pot and stacks, shove might be best play if we have two pair.

A b/b/b line should yield, but since pre flop raise came from early position and got many callers, we might make more money laying in the weeds and letting the preflop better c bet, then eval the action of the other players before showing that we have a hand.

No. Actually people believe that it is more often than not not good, but that the dead money in the pot (much of which we put there ourselves) makes this a call for pot odds.

Idk man, KQ-AK are the only hand you get value from. KT is folding easily and even KJ. That's why b/b/b is better.

I prefer a fold or 3bet preflop with KQo in MP. Very rarely a call. Don't think having 75BB changes that preference.

AP, it's a call of the allin. I can't get with the program of playing this hand in a manner that induces multi-way, hitting a good flop, getting a 1/3 of my stack in with a flop bet and then folding to a check-raise from a Villain with a creative or mysterious range. Might as well lay in the bed we've made.

Fair enough. So, if V has K2, H has 30% equity. If V has K7, H has 17.5% equity. Since V probably plays those two hands equally, splitting the difference is about 25% equity.

Preflop pot $100.
Bet $75, V jams, pot = $450 and H has to call $200. Getting 2.25 to 1, it's a little thin if we put V on exactly two pair.

If V's range is K7s, K2s, 77, 22, AK, then KQ is 12%. Fold.
Add KJ, and KQ goes to 35%. Call, but I don't think V jams KJ. So I fold.

And, to the counter point, if we were in Vs spot and had 2 pair, we might reasonably expect to get called if we check jam.

I'm not sure the right play here. A live read or feel would help a lot. If I'm H here, I fold pre. OTF, I bet smaller for pot control w Tp2k. As played, I fold to the raise.

If I'm V, I like b/b/b w 2 pair, and I like check, planning to see who bets and possibly GII. I don't like playing this slow bc I'm OOP and any A, Q, J, T or 9 could hit my opponent and freeze me. If I am V and opponent bets $75, he's usually committed and will stack off w one pair, so against typical fish, I prob shove.

Results:

H calls (mainly because of pot odds) and V shows KJ and H wins. Thanks for the feedback, especially pf where I realise I made an error as well as my flop size betting which was too large.