First post on 2p2!

I had a weird spot in a session today at $1/$3 nlhe, thought I'd get your guys' perspectives. The table has been very loose - a lot of limp/folding, calling with any A or K, etc. Villain is bb in this hand and had been at the table for about 2 hours, he's been pretty tight (but solid - aggressive when he has a hand), so I figured I could lean on his blind fairly easily. I've been playing pretty ultra aggressive, simply because there were so many people limp/folding to larger bets. Haven't been spewy, just playing suited one-gappers and the like because the table was easy.

Both of us have fairly large stacks at about $550 each.

Hero is dealt Tc9c in the cutoff.

2 limpers, Hero raises to $16. Only caller is villain.

Flop - 8cJcTd

Villain checks, hero bets $25, villain calls.

Turn - 5s

Villain checks, hero bets $60, villain raises to $130, hero calls.

River - Qh

Villain checks, hero bets $155, villain tanks for 2-3 minutes and raises all in, hero???

So, it seems pretty straightforward until the river. It's either a huge bet because he whiffed a flush and wants to get me off my hand, or I'm getting baited hard into calling against a better straight. I had seen him pull a few moves, but not any for his whole stack yet.

I figured initially he was calling with things like QJ+, or honestly even any J and just not giving me credit for a hand. I took sets and big aces out of his range, he simply wasn't playing aggressive enough for that. Nut flush draws were certainly in his range.

When he check/raised the turn, it looked like he had a strong pair, or maybe even two pair. No extra cards to the straight came in, no flush, seems like a good place to get value from a whiffed hand.

After the check/raise all in, I figure he's either shoving a busted flush draw to attempt to get me off a hand, or he sucked out on me with K9 or a super disguised AK.

I'm pretty sure I can't find a fold here pretty much ever. Thoughts?

I'm snap calling. If he has AKcc, or K9 then oh well, but there's so much we beat

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I have 0 idea what he would be raising on the turn with, such a weird line for him to take x/r turn and x/r river seems like a set or a chop, so i think its a call. GG if he has AK but wtf is he doing not 3betting AK and suddenly x/r the turn.

Check back the turn. Yeah, your draw is pretty big, but you're behind any jack. There's probably a little value to be had from draws and such but I'd rather allow my opponent space to bluff the river.

River is really gross. I'm not sure he ever actually bluffs in this spot. I'd probably toss the money in because it's so hard for us to be beaten. I'm hoping the tank is that he wasn't sure whether to raise a bare 9 or not.

Check turn

River was super gross. I ended up calling and was beaten by AKo. Still would play the same way, except possibly checking the turn, I just figured if my draw hit I was preparing the pot to get stacks in. I just never figured AK was a part of his range here and I was mistaken.

Why do you think AK isn't part of his range here? Seems pretty standard to me.

Not everyone 3-bets AK 100 percent of the time. He's heads up against you and he has you figured as aggro and trying to steal his BB all the time.

He flops a gutshot and two overs and calls. Then he hits and you pay him off.

BBV is thataway.

I completely disagree with that. there are sooo many more threads deserving of sneaky remarks like this, but this one actually had the potential to be a very good one.
it contains everything imo, preflop discussion whether or not to raise T9ss, turn discussion on whether or not to bet which would do wonders for many players wr imo, and river discussion in a pretty weird spot.

imo you played the hand perfectly fine up until river, which is a pretty sick spot then. you´re very rarely winning in this spot, most likely chopping and sometimes losing.

this could have been a pretty great thread.

With 2 limpers, I'd either overlimp or raise bigger to $21 pre.

Flop is standard.

Turn could go either way, but with an OESFD and given Vs passive line so far, I think it's fairly okay to bet again to get him off weak Jx, charge worse hands and build a pot incase we hit. Were you planning to triple barrel incase you whiffed though?

Easy call vs the turn c/r and snapcalling the river obv expecting to chop often. There's just no way you can put him on K9/AK after the turn c/r. Just unlucky.

Yeah - pretty standard to c/r AKo on a JT8cc5s board after facing flop/turn aggression from the PFR, lol.

+1. Villain's c/r on turn with AKo makes absolutely no sense at all

Raise more preflop. Maybe 20.

Flop is fine. Turn bet is fine. Honestly I'm probably jamming turn. Flat call flop and turn minraise is a really odd way to play a set here. I think villain is on a flush draw / straight draw or just FOS pretty often and you have 21 outs against overpairs and Js.

Bet/call river. Villain should rarely have AK or K9 here. Seems more like QJ or something.

For future reference don't post results so soon. It shades future discussion of the hand. I think this would be my analysis regardless but hard to tell once I've seen villain has AK.

This is a really strange line with AK. If villain is a reg just note he bluffs with weak draws, can flat AK, and is capable of Hollywooding with the nuts. He gave away a ton of information here.



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I, too, totally disagree. Tons of BBV in LLNL, but not this one. V's having AK is a weird cooler, not a bad beat.

OP, agree with waiting at least a day to post results, and please put pot sizes on all streets.

Sorry about that, I was heading to bed and felt like there wouldn't be much more discussion.

I ended up making the call simply because it didn't make sense to me. I couldn't put him on any hand that would flat pre and have me absolutely crushed. Check/raise on the turn was a pretty easy call for me, and I still think I'd bet there.

Someone said the bet sizing was off pre - is $16 not right here? Generally I triple the bb, +1 bb for every limper. It's an odd habit, probably, not sure how I got it but I'm open to critique there, as well.

Sorry about that - I didn't know how much more discussion would be had. I'll keep it in mind for the future. Pot sizes too!

Preflop and flop are good. I might raise more pre but with this hand I don't think we care so much if we don't happen to get many folds.

I would overpot the turn to something like 120 or check. Villain has tons of high equity hands and would have raised the flop with a lot of his strongest hands. As played his line and sizing are a little FOS, so I'd just jam turn. It's hard to believe a nutted hand would just call flop and then check raise turn small with deep stacks behind.

River bet is obvious. There is an axiom that says no matter how little sense a LLSNL villain's line makes, he has what he's repping, and he's repping that he can beat a 9. However, the raise is small relative to pot, and it's a lot easier for him to show up with 9x on the river than specifically K9/AK, so I'd call hoping to chop.

Yeah, I really didn't care much if other people called. T9s plays pretty well in multiway pots.

Also pretty much where I ended up. I felt like I had to call because it's so easy for him to show up with random 9s there.

grunch;

I am stacking off every time here with these stack sizes. Sucks if you run into like AK but the fact you had the lead throughout and your image villain can easily think a set or even 2 pair (less likely) may be good.

If he lucked into beating you on the river I think a ton of the time he is going to lead out since he C/R the river.

I call and don't think about it long...


After
After reading results I still think the same;

The odds that villain
A) doesn't 3b AK
B) chooses to C/R the turn instead of the flop with just pair + gutter
C) Doesn't lead the river when he hits his miracle card

Is super rare, and IMO bad play throughout. Without a sick read you don't want to adjust your game around the above circumstance...

I guess you know your table if everyone is limp/folding to $16 preflop, but after two limpers at my table and a call in the BB, especially deep, we'd be seeing a flop here 4ways 100% of the time at my table. But you know your table, so good result: HU, in position, with initiative, with a disguised hand, with a big SPR that gives us lots of postflop options; nice result if expected.

Next time put pot size on each street.

I'd also bet the flop. We have decent equity against almost all hands so this bet is just for pure value.

I would typically check back the turn. We have showdown value, but UI we'll end up with a fairly small hand that doesn't want to build a pot. We have lots of outs if check/raised, but we'd rather not put in money for our draws if need be. Basically, our hand is almost too good to semi-bluff with here, but not good enough to bet for value / build a big pot, imo. Will all our outs and getting 4:1 we should easily have enough equity to make a call in position and try to hit our hand. I probably wouldn't get too tricky by pushing the issue against a min check/raiser who looks like he wants the action.

I also bet the river when checked to.

Calling the big raise is a little tough because very few people shove for this amount on bluffs, but I think (???) we have to call it off here (although we're often calling to chop). His check/raise on the turn also typically indicates a good made hand (FWIW, this is rarely one pair, imo), so perhaps he's just overplaying a hand that he thinks is good against our range (such as we probably shouldn't have 9x in our range, although AK is within our range, so this raise is still very scary).

ETA: The one thing OP might want to do is take into account how often someone gets in stacks of almost 200bb by the river at a table where people are folding to lol $16 raises preflop. My game plays insanely loose preflop, and yet postflop 200bb stacks go in almost never. River is a really gross spot, imo, unless your opponents are capable of this (and maybe they are given villain's turn play). River is at the very most a crying call (and usually to chop at most, which is so gross), imo, and I'm guessing someone could maybe even convince me it's a fold.

GcluelessNLnoobG

It seems like checking back on the turn is the option most people would have gone with, I'll take that into consideration in the future.

I am never checking back this turn, and I might just shove over him.

+1

His play does not look like a set. On a board this wet a set would almost certainly raise the flop. It looks like he's semibluffing with a straight draw and/or flush draw. I would tend to jam because we have a made hand so even if he has a bigger flush draw or straight draw we're way ahead. And we have 21 outs to 2p+.

snap call river. This is going to be Q9, 79 that got counterfeited a lot for a chop, but also some random spazz with sets/2-pairs. If he has K9 or AK he gets my money.

well if you skip over the part where he check/raises the blank turn, then checks his gin card on the river then sure.

Villain just awful play on every street except the flop. Checking river is especially bad, you would check back that river a large % of the time.

You played well every street imo. Not a fan of checking turn here, you check turn and bet river on a club & you're much less likely to get called. If you bet and he folds turn like he should have, it's just fine.