Quote:
Originally Posted by Ddebaggi
I don’t really agree with this. not many people are calling 35 preflop with 65s and 44 33. KK and AA would have 3bet me pre most likely, or raised themselves. As for as nut advantage I think I have all the AA KK and QQ maybe even 77, I’m beating 88 through JJ with 1 diamond and block KQ of diamonds only hand I should be afraid of is Ax of diamond but the ace of diamond hits on the turn. Unless he has exactly j10, k10 kJ of diamond right ? Plenty worse hands will call imo.
Once people have limped $6, they are incredibly likely to call the $35 raise, especially as more and more people call in front of them. I wouldn't even be surprised to see hands like K5s etc. Hands like 65s and 33/44/77 are well in play here. I agree no one has AA/KK here. Nobody has TT/JJ here either or we would have seen a raise preflop, 88/99 at best.
I am fine with checking the flop or betting the flop. Not only hands that are beating will call you, there are plenty of hands that will call that are behind. I would definitely bet on the larger side though, .75% pot or more. This board is so wet that I am going to make any draw pay a hefty price to continue. Taking the pot down now is plenty fine. I'd probably bet something around $100 - $110 on this flop.
A lot of the hands that call the turn are pair+ straight draw, flush draws, or some sort of hybrid flush/straight draw. When the diamond hits the turn, you should check. Pretty bad card to continue on, even with it being an Ace. Betting this turn, you will now get folds from almost all hands that you are currently beating and will get called by every hands that you are behind. Any random two pair hands, flushes, straights, they are all calling this bet. Hands like pair+gutshot, they'll most likely fold now and the amount of times they fold doesn't outweigh enough the times they call and have you crushed.
Also, you now have the Queen high flush draw and you want to realize your equity as much as you can here for as cheap as possible. No reason to bet as you are behind if called and increasing your losses. Betting also makes it likely that you get shipped on which is very unfortunate.
Check/Evaluate the turn is far and away more profitable.