Here's what I thought was an interesting hand from last night's 1/2/2 game at our small local club. All players are regs with substantial history

Hero is known as a tightish player in what is typically a very loose field, recognized as one of, if not the biggest winning reg in the game.

V1 is an Asian lady with a huge diamond wedding set who isn't a complete ******, but calls too much pre-flop and is pretty sticky post. She will try to trap with huge hands and has a tendency to randomly go for a spazz bluff in horrible spots.

V2 is a 60ish gentleman who is also super loose preflop and really doesn't like to fold once he puts money in the pot. For example he won a decent pot a few orbits earlier when he limped in EP, then MP raised to $12, CO called and button 3 bet to 50, V2 overcalled and everyone else called behind with CO being All in. Board ran out something like 88236 with no more money going in and V2 scooped with J6s.

In this spot, spazzy UTG (60) makes it 7, V2 (500) calls UTG+1, Hero (600) in hijack makes it 30 for value with JcJs, folds to V1 (275) in sb who cold calls, UTG folds, V2 calls.

95 in pot

Flop comes 5h6h7d

V1 donks for 70, V2 calls relatively quickly. Hero calls time and scratches his head.

He is ahead here the vast majority of the time, but considers all options as valid. Both villains are usually on some combination of pair/pocket pair with straight draw or a flush draw which will have at least one overcard.

What to do?

If your read on V1 is correct she has a ton of draws here...not always good ones either, she will have some naked 8's here.

V2 overcalls 25BB with J6 sooted, I think it's safe to say he could have a draw, overs, 2 pair+, etc.

I can't see folding here for 70 into 235...I don't think calling is terrible but what turn cards are you hoping to see? You're probably only happy to see a non 2 or 10.

I'm clicking back for ~220.

with given reads.. raising for value here... 200~220. not calling this flop multiway and def not folding

Im raising here and being quite happy about it

based on your reads and the probability of turn cards that can kill your action....

vs these players as described in the OP...

MONKEY SHOVE ALL-IN.

I know, 98% of the time, that would be overplaying our hand. But against these spewtards, we are likely ahead and more importantly they will call with worse. They can also think we are on a draw and call down light. They will call on their draws or crappy TPMK type hands. And we have outs vs 2p hands. Obviously, straights kill us. But add up their tendencies and ranges and I'm 100% fine shoving here.

Its a high variance +EV spot and I rarely overshove so thin, but against the described villains, this is one of those rare occasions where I shove pretty thin in a spot where typically it would be overplaying our hand.

I'm having trouble coming up with a set of ranges for Villains where we are fistpump shoveling money in here on the flop (assuming that V1 is going with her hand and not completely FOS.)


Board: 5d7h6h

Hero { JsJc }

V1 { 44, QdQh, QhQs, QhQc, JdJh, JhJs, JhJc, TdTh, ThTs, ThTc, 9d9h, 9h9s, 9h9c, 8d8h, 8h8s, 8h8c, 7d7h, 7h7s, 7h7c, 6d6h, 6h6s, 6h6c, 5d5h, 5h5s, 5h5c, AhKh, AhQh, KhQh, AhJh, KhJh, AhTh }

V2 { JJ-88, 44, K8s-K5s, QTs, J9s+, T9s, T7s, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, 43s, AhKh, AhQh, KhQh, AhJh, KhJh, QhJh, AhTh, KhTh, Ah9h, Ad8d, As8s, Ac8c, Ad7d, As7s, Ac7c, Ad6d, As6s, Ac6c, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, 98o, 87o, 76o, 65o }

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 5d7h6h

Equity Win Tie
Hero 28.57% 26.83% 1.74%
V1 34.56% 32.56% 2.00%
V2 36.87% 35.54% 1.32%

based on your descriptions

I would say any combo draw, any FD, any OESD, and TPMK+

In spots like this, villains are 100% unable to fold their combo draws.

If villains have 87 or 86 or 54 type hands, they just aren't going to fold once they put money into the pot. They are going to call.

Of course, it sucks if they flopped gin, but on the flip side, there are so many draws that aren't folding here that we should be fine just getting it in vs these particular villain types.

Also look at stack sizes, V1 only had around 270ish right??? So he will call. V2 has us covered and based on OP description is stickier/fishier....

this is the exact spot to really take advantage of their leaks.

or put another way. If V2 has 87 or 86 or 54 or QT or A3 type hands is he ever folding here??? Based on your description the answer is no, he will call it off.

which is why we can shove here, V has more than enough lessor hands in his range that will call us.

When I shove in spots like this vs these types of villains, I'm often surprised by what calls me. I wouldn't even be surprised if we were called by pair + gutter balls combos....

hmmmm maybe Im' wrong and overzealous here.

I constructed a range and came up with similar numbers

So....

I think optimal line is to flat flop and then shove all bricked turns????

Assuming we get a brick turn lets see what our equity looks like

Okay, I guess that is the more optimal +EV line and that raising or shoving flop is a mistake even with the villain descriptions....

There are a ton of combinations where if we get it in 3 ways we are in 3rd place equity wise even if we are ahead on the flop. Now we may make some of that back in the side pot, especially since V2's range is weaker, but I just don't see how we are making a ton of money getting it in here.

Now the question is how many blank turns will we see? How profitable is calling the flop with the intention of only realizing our equity on a combo of blank turn and river? I saw this a lot when I played PLO full time, where often times what looks like a made hand is actually a hand drawing to two blanks.

Thinking it through we have some more variables to consider when shoving.

Percent of time both Villains fold or V1 folds but V2 calls (not very often but not 0)
Percent of time V1 calls and V2 folds (maybe 50%?)
Sidepot equity vs V2's weaker range when both Villains call

Will try to do the math later.

what's V1's range for cold calling pre?
you say she calls too much pre, what does that mean her range is for cold calling a 3-bet/utg raise?
if she has any clue what she's doing it still has to be a somewhat tight range, no? PPs and SC's. And she gets tricky when nutted, so yeah I probably just ship it. I don't see any point in raising smaller, all it will do is create the chance of an ugly spot OTT.

She's probably calling with the range as described upthread. Certainly hands like ATs and KQs are in her 3 bet cold calling range as are all pairs, but I would not expect to see 89s type hands very often if at all and I would expect her donking range multi-way to have almost no pure air and even very little bet/fold in it.

OK after running the numbers it looks like our most profitable move is a flop jam if V2 folds with any frequency at all, and calling for a blank turn is pretty meh since there are only 13 cards that let us realize our equity. Ironically the biggest mistake Villains can make in this hand is folding their marginal made hands and K/Q high flush draws too often.

Either fold or close your eyes and shove. There are not really any good turn cards other than an offsuit 2, T, or J

Wait for a better spot against these terrible players.

Nice work DE

so, if I'm reading this right our best option is to jam flop and this becomes a fold or jam spot on flop???

What do you mean you called time?

I am probably raising, too many draws V can have that you are ahead of too fold in this spot.

Jam>>call=fold if V2 folds >0% of the time.

I called time because it wasn't immediately obvious which of my four options were best as the math upthread has confirmed.

Grunching. I don't think V1s bet is one trying to shut V2 and H out. Seems more like a bet building a pot that combined with V1s raise preflop would weight V1s range to big flush draw of some sort. V2 has hit the flop somehow but doesn't have a complete hand yet. I'd peel one here.

Interesting that this is the only response mentioning folding as an option, which I definitely considered in real time.

The alarm bells start going off when someone flats a 3/4 pot donk bet with the original raiser still to act on a pretty wet board when there's a strong possibility that you will put in a big raise to protect your hand against draws.

I read his flat as weakish as the only had that wouldn't be nervous about this board is 89hh, and I would expect sets/two pair and most straights to raise for protection. That said even the weakest part of his range has a substantial amount of equity vs. our hand.

Can you elaborate more why a raise to ~220 is worse than a shove? The 220 raise probably gets more calls from FD, OSED, and pair+SD, and they are not getting the right odds. Anything that calls a flop AI probably calls a turn shove for less. True, a flop shove means you don't have any hard decisions later but a smaller raise gets called wider, and with these stationy villains they will call with the wrong odds anyway. If you think 220 is too small, say 350.

Even if there are only 13 cards you want to see on the turn, villains probably play pretty straightforward on the turn. Either they are pretty honest and usually have it, or they spazz too much and turn is an easy call. In practice I rarely see villains that are well balanced on this turn that my decision is tough.