1/2 no limit live holdem. Villain is an ABC player. All the bluffs he has shown are weak plus I've floated a few and bet him off similar (semi) bluffs. We're both really deep, him $800 me $650. Villain raises under the gun to $11, folded to Hero who calls with 9c7s. Yes, terrible hand! I had outplayed him before and thought I could do it again.

Flop:
56Q

Villain checks I bet $15. I'm expecting him to call me. He won't shake that easily. But if he checks the turn I'm certain I can push him off of whatever he has. He looks down at his cards and calls.

Turn:
8

He bets $30. That surprised me a bit, but I get the sense this was a defensive bet but he may have also hit his flush. I called. My plan for the river is to call any smallish bet $30/40 and if he checks make a smallish bet of the same size, hoping he calls. If he makes a bigger bet on the river then I'd have to re-evaluate.

Turn
8

He bets $60. WTF? What did I walk into?!

As far as Villain's pf range, it's probably wide. He's an ABC player but not at all sophisticated; seems very new to the game. He's likely to raise with any suited ace, any suited connector (maybe even unsuited), any two broadway, 66+. He'd probably call with suited one gap connectors but I don't think he'd raise under the gun with them. There's also probably some weird suited kings, queens and jacks in his range.

Based on his style of play I'm certain this is a value bet and he's not trying to push me off of something better. I try to decide what he could be value betting that is worse than my straight.

Call? Raise? Fold?

What is your position preflop and the number of players at the table?

What are your reads on the players yet to act behind you?

As far as the hand goes as played does him checking his cards mean anything?

If there is extra value to be had in this hand it's on the turn, but since you indicated this particular fish can find the fold button I'd just call down.

Sent from my SCH-R760X using 2+2 Forums

I thought I mentioned I was on the button, but I see now that I didn't. That's some important missing information. Also, give the who were in the blinds I'd say there was a 75% chance we were going heads up. And if one blind did call they were very, very passive, so unlikely to mess things up too much - though just entering is a bit of a problem. But for this ENTIRE scenario I wouldn't have played this hand.

For an ABC player in this situation, as opposed to this player in particular, I would say a check here either means he's on the flush draw or hit a set. I find ABC players overprotect their hands and are only willing to take a chance if they have a set or maybe two pairs. I can't say that for sure for this player in particular, but he fits the mold.

I don't understand your "WTF? What did I walk into?!" thought process on the river.

From what I can tell, on the river the pot is $115 and he bets $60, so he is betting about 1/2 the pot. You are looking at a pot of $175 and $60 to call so you need slightly better than 25% equity to call.

The only question on the river IMO is do you call or do you raise/fold. Folding to the $60 bet is not an option. And I'd probably just call the river.

Raising the turn is also a consideration.



Have you seen him check flopped flush draws before as the pre-flop raiser (particularly in 2 or 3 handed pots)? Have you seen him c-bet flopped flush draws before? In general, how often does he seem to c-bet?

Since you said it surprised you, I am assuming that you have not seen him donk bet a street before like he did on the turn here ... ?

When he would donk bet with something weak, or a bluff, it was always a smallish one, <1/2 pot. I hadn't seen his cards when he was in a flush draw situation. I put him on a typical ABC player who usually over defends except when they have a big hand. I've never seen him c-bet flopped flush draws but I have seen enough of him to think he probably wouldn't lead out with a c-bet on a flush draw.

I know the math would be to call. Against 75% of players I'm snap calling, against 15% I'll tank a bit and probably still call. However, there are players where I can find a fold with this board.

Why does he donk bet the 8 instead of c-betting the flop? And with the turn and river there are so many good hands that have now connected, and he isn't scared of any of them. I mean, when the river card comes I'm not sure what he has but boy is he confident of his hand! No fear.

OP, you have not presented any sliver of evidence in either of your posts for why we should remotely consider a fold here. This is a trivial call at 1/2 Live with the information you have presented.