I don't have much of a read on my opponent, however, I have an aggressive image, and have made a play at the pot on the last 4 hands in a row (once a 3bet pre, and three times either raising or betting post flop), taking the pot away on all four occassions. Villain and I are about 180BB deep, while the third player that folds flop is 100BB deep.

I have AA, UTG, 6 handed, and raise up the pot and get two callers. The flop comes out Q85r. I cbet (obv my entire range) and the CO raises about 2.5 times pot, and the other opponenent folds. Turn and river cards are blanks. They don't complete any draws and are all undercards to the Q.

Facing a 2.5 raise on the flop, it feels like the villain does not have a set, since he would not want to blow out the thrid caller, and he probably figures that in light of my previous aggression, I am likely to barrel. He may only be thinking of his cards, this is true, but he struck me as capable of some level 2 thinking. Thus, I put him on a bluff or some kind of top pair "find out where I am at" raise. If we are calling here, which I definitely think is best by a large margin, then how do we play the turn and river?

I don't really like c/calling the turn, because then he is going to shut down a lot since my call represents a decent amount of strength (opening UTG, calling a raise multiway, etc), and I will lose money from his weak top pair stuff should he go into check mode. I also am not happy with c/folding since he may still have some bluffs, but it would be a disaster if he inadvertenly turns his TP type stuff into a bluff and I lose that type of pot. So I thought my best option was to barrel turn and river and hope to get calls with his TP stuff. However, I think I have to bet small to 'price' him in, so I bet like 40% of the pot on turn.

He calls, and I definitely feel like I have to bet the river since now I am most certain he has a top pair hand that will probably call a river bet but definitely won't bet it himself. Again, I go with a smaller sizing and bet about 1/3 the pot.

Of course, I would be folding to a turn or river raise.

Is this bad or okay? Please explain why, and give me some alternate lines if you don't like this one.

Also, could I bet more taking this line and still get roughly the same number of calls from his TP type range?

On that board, the only draw he could be raising is 67. Villain's range is a lot of Qx. If you think villain bets the turn with his whole range, then I like a flop call, and turn check/raise. If he happens to have exactly 67, and checks for the free card, it sucks, but is the best way to get the most money in the pot. You're likely way ahead here.

Up to your c-bet on the flop I like your line. Your hand is underrepped and you're getting money in the pot.

I say call that flop bet. He may sherriffing or have AQ. The only thing you have to fear is a set, and believe me, many people play sets fast, so don't discount that. You have little to fear from 2 pairs on this board.

So. Since we only have a pair, I like controlling the pot a little at this point. Check the turn and let him bet into you. If he does, call it and c/c the river. You've now played your overpair for a big pot and haven't lost control and had to fold against worse.

But let's say he checks behind on the turn. He is likely going into pot-control mode with AQ. If he checks behind, go ahead and lead the river. He will call you light since it looks like you just want the pot. Again, you will have a good-sized pot for your overpair. I personally wouldn't want to play a pot this big with just a pair, but you are an aggro player so you can get away with it more.

Now let's say you lead the river and he raises you. THIS is a really tricky situation, and I would want reads here, but unfortunately you don't have any. =( Ask yourself if he would really play this way with a hand you can beat...the board texture should also affect whether you call or not. Obviously if another queen comes we are toast and we should check/fold.

EDIT: but with all undercards to the queen, I like calling here. You will see queens alot.

How much of the time is this type of villain betting the turn with his entire range vs going into check mode to get to showdown with his TP type stuff? Remember, I did open UTG. Depending on your answer to that question, does the b/c flop- lead turn-lead river ever become a good line?

If he'll call down with AQ or KQ, I just take a bet+call/bet/bet line and fold if he does another raise or really just wants to get the money in. I wouldn't be betting too large, but definitly larger than half pot.

If he's nittier than that I would probably check/call the turn and then valuebet/fold the river. I would bet at least 2/3 pot on the river.

Also, you have a ton of posts, but please take the time to read some posts and format your HH correctly. It's still readable, but man, it took me a bit longer than it should have.

I'm assuming this is a 1/2 game - I don't recall seeing that posted anywhere.

Obviously the real disaster would be if he checks back the turn. From villain's perspective, you opened, c-bet the flop, then called his raise. What range does he put you on? You're pretty much looking like 99-JJ/AK in this spot. With your image, you'll most likely repop him with AQ/KK/AA. If that is your range from his eyes, then he is much more likely to bet for value. You can then raise, and if he calls you get extra value from him.

If you just bet the turn and river, you're earning two "bets". You have the potential to earn his stack with the turn check/raise, then push river. Yes, you may lose a "bet" there (stealing limit terminology), but it is worth it to try and get his stack.

If he happens to be bluffing, you're not getting any more money out of him anyway, whether you lead or not.

Sorry everyone. I was in a rush.

Good analysis. but is it really +ev to play for stacks by c/raising the turn?

Against a bad 1/2 player? Yes. That's where most of your profit at 1/2 comes from - players who can't lay down KQ in this spot.

Thanks everyone. Lots of good analysis