Here's a hand I had trouble with at a crazy loose $5/5 game. The game is built around a massive fish who lost $3k in the first orbit and is down $10k so far. Villain is a mediocre LAG who loves to put people to the test. He plays almost every hand. I'm a LAG but compared to him I look like a nit.

I'm effective stack with $3k, dealt JcJd.

Fish is UTG opens to his standard $75 (yes, his standard open is 15x).

V calls in MP.

I raise to $300 from the CO.

This raise seems pretty large but not out of character with the way the game is playing, especially since if I called the flop would be $225. I figure I want to isolate the fish with this hand and am fine with picking up $150 uncontested.

Very surprisingly, fish folds and V calls.

Flop ($675): Th7d4c

V checks, I bet $500. V calls.

This seems like a great flop for my hand and I can definitely get value from straight draws and overcards. Should I have sized down here?

Turn ($1675): 8d

V checks, I check it back.

This seems like the biggest mistake in the hand. I didn't think I could get 3 streets of value here and was concerned about what V might have been calling me down with. Plus, straight got there. Plan was to bet the river if checked to.

River ($1675): Qh

V leads out for $1400

Hero???

I don't think he could have worse value unless he somehow hopes for me to call down with AK. Plus, his preflop action feels a lot like set-mining to me. Thoughts?

You think this guy called $300 preflop with 98 or 56? Why are you worried (trying to get value from) about straight draws?

The flop bet is way too big.

Pre is fine
prefer smaller sizing on flop.$350

As played

Turn I am clueless. Because no idea what his range would look like. In vacuum vs lag. I think I check. Whale at table I am likely not looking to get in tough spot vs lag.

River: Sucks, queen has to be better for our range. Board is better for his. But I am station vs Lags. So doubt I find fold.

Preflop is good. Size down on flop to something like $200. Turn is fine to check. River is a call as played.

Yes, he might have a set here, but he might also have AT or 99 or 98s.

500 is way too much on flop.

I'm folding river because it's difficult to see what his bluffing hands are.

AT or 99 he'd just show down, turning them into a bluff seems absurd, what are you targeting? Exactly JJ, which most people are going to crying call anyway? And 98s he essentially cannot have because he'd 100% x/r flop with it.

The problem with this spot is that hero's range is super-polarized, like he rarely just has something like a T. Usually he'll either have no pairs or else something like AQ/JJ+. V's sizing doesn't make sense as a bluff against a polarized range. If he wants to make H fold like AK then $800 will do the job. $1,400 looks like greed with a value hand.

You say he's a play every hand LAG, but so far all he's done is check and call. Without knowing his tendencies, it's hard to know exactly how to maximize value here without owning ourselves. Going for the promised land with a massive flop bet seems fine against a whale, but against a more sane player, which maybe this guy is, you'll want to size down to keep his range wider.

You could have bet $200 on the flop and $300 on the turn, and been able to fold a lot more comfortably, or have bought yourself a showdown for the same price as your $500 flop bet. The problem with hands like JJ/TT is that there are no great non-set boards for them when big money starts going in. So we really don't want to put too much money in this pot after the flop.

So far in this hand, he's called a crap ton preflop, then a massive flop bet. I'm giving him credit for a set or something on the river and folding.

He's very capable of calling preflop with 98s, since he loves making big draws he can barrel with.

Note: I didn't say I'm worried about it, just that it's a hand I could get value from.

Agreed that I made it too much on the flop. In retrospect, a wish I'd sized down to $350 or so.

One interesting meta: a few hands previously, I made a massive overbet ($600 into $300) with the nuts and he called me with AK high. In fact, there's been a fair amount of hero calls with Ace high in the game tonight (often correctly). He's potentially capable of playing something like JT hoping for a hero from AK (which I think my hand looks a lot like now).

Wtf game is this

I like the bet/bet/check line more than the bet/check/bet line here.
The former let’s us get value from pair+draws on the turn while the latter does not.
I prob just bet 1/2 pot OTF, 3/4 pot OTT, and check back most rivers

An insane game filled with degenerate gamblers. Often see people lose $5-10k in one night.

Agreed, in retrospect I think the huge flop bet really messed this up for me.

Honestly, I didn't ever expect him to call preflop after the fish folded so I wanted the hand to be over and spazzed.

Don't buy him looking for you to hero with AK, it's just kind of outright far-fetched but also if that was his plan, he shouldn't bet so much.

It's possible I'm giving him too much credit here and he made a giant bet because that's what he likes to do.

How loose is his utg opening range? 3b pre is obv fine but im just wondering.... he's a very special player.

flop i'd 2/3 or check, your bet is way too big.

turn is nice, i'm checking here to look to bluff-catch some rivers and i dont think we should go for 3 streets for 1200BB.

river i'd sigh call i guess, not really thinking about folding. i think with this sizing he's polarizing himself as well, he's not merging with 10x. If he had like KQs with bdfd otf, i dont think he just bombs the river like this at a high frequency (possibly but unlikely).

ATC. He literally opens ~50% of hands to $75, without any regard for position.

Earlier he opened and called down an AQJ53 board with J4o. Like I said, game is built around him. TT is way up in my 3-bet range against this whale.

On flop, never checking. I can't let him catch up with overcards or a random hand for free.

Agreed I should have sized down, I think that's the biggest mistake here.

My plan was to call on most rivers, but this sizing seemed quite strong. Agreed he doesn't have many Qx here, I think it was either a set or air but I was having trouble finding bluffs. Given the preflop action, I think he has a decent number of sets here (not 3-betting 77, but willing to call and set-mine).

You really think folding is out of the question here? It's a pretty massive pot for TT.

Don't underestimate the potential for people to spazz at this table. Heck, he called a massive 3-bet with a hand that he didn't even *think* about 3-betting himself.

Ok yeah if he's that wild, pre is a snap 3b.

I dont like checking otf either, but if I had to choose between bombing it for this huge or checking, i'd probably check. When we bet this big, we're condensing ranges and let him play a lot more perfectly than he should vs us. E.g. if you go all-in here, it lets him play more perfectly than if we bet 2/3, 1/3, or check.

I don't think folding is out of the question. When it comes to close river decisions like this, folding isn't really a huge mistake since it doesn't cut that much into your winrate if you're wrong this time. I just don't really like folding here vs a whale who's massively polarizing himself, playing 50% of hands, is tilted from dropping 10k, etc. In-game I might fold if I thought losing 3 buy-ins and being wrong might tilt me.

Blocking J9 is a little nice, and we are pretty high up in our range

I think if we bet flop a little smaller river is a much easier call since if we bet small he floats a lot wider and arrives to river with a wider range and more bluffs/weak hands, i dont hate a fold here

You misread the action, the big whale folded pre. It's the somewhat more competent LAG who ended up calling. This would've been a trivial call against the whale who has a million bluffs *and* worse value (ex. AT).

Really don't see any reason to check flop. Instead of just stating it, can you provide any evidence? I think it's very critical to deny equity for his overcards.

I think the optimal line here is probably:

$300 flop, $500 turn, x river

Anyways, results were I folded and he showed a 7. Claims he had Q7, I'm guessing set of 7s is more likely.

Ah okay, got confused with all the comments.

You’re saying LAG plays almost every hand, so he should have a pretty wide range otf and otr. As I said, I dont like checking at all and just prefer a 1/2-2/3 bet. Betting 75% is pretty too big, if you want to deny equity to overcards 1/3-2/3 is plenty enough.

You say he likes to put people to the test. So if you check here it looks like AK and im sure he’s going to try to fire at least one street with his air, whereas if you bet 3/4 pot he folds all his air and continues with hands that have defent equity vs JJ. I cant give you concrete evidence bc all the caluclations would be based off subjective probability and EV, but I can give reasons why I like a check better than 3/4 pot (tho i dont like either). I think AA is a good check as a mix, but we cant always have AA

Ott we are most likely WA/WB so checking to keep his range weaker and induce bluffs imo makes sense, but I dont doubt that 1/2 psb flop and barreling turn is +EV. It sucks to get jammed on and fold our gutter + 2-outer set, and if we river a straight our hand is super disguised and we could just bet huge or all-in and it’ll look like we have AK. 8 is a pretty good card for his range and completes a lot of two pair, straights. If he has two pair and jams on us that sucks too bc we had a lot of outs vs two pair

Basically if he continues vs your dbl barrel ott you can be almost sure you’re drawing super thin.

If he showed a 7, you can be sure he had 77. Bad players love to show one card that looks like they were bluffing. When they do that the other card had you beat every time.