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Weird 1/2 hand. Bad fold? Weird 1/2 hand. Bad fold?

09-08-2015 , 01:09 PM
I won't say how this hand eventually played out yet cause I don't want to bias peoples opinions. Personally I'm on the fence about whether I made a good decision with the information I had. There's 2 villains in this hand, I'll call them maniac villain and main villain.

Main Villain: Young asian kid in his early mid 20s. Seemed quiet dressed normally and bought in for the max $300. Didn't strike me as the crazy gambler type and in the 20-30 minutes I played him before this hand he played a reasonable percentage of hands, never straddled or did any dumb **** so I pegged him as someone who was reasonably tight and was there to win not gamble it up. Had 1 previous hand with main villain where I had raised preflop and he flat called with AA.

My Image: I was getting a run of good starting hands so I might have had a slightly loose image even though I play pretty tight. Had a previous hand right before this hand where maniac villain and another maniac at the table decided to both blind raise and I had 3 bet them preflop and taken down the pot on the flop.

The Hand: 6 people at the table. Hand had a straddle UTG. Next to act would have been manic villain who decides to go all in blind for $54. I'm next to act with 99 so I decide to min raise to $104 to isolate the maniac villain with $185 behind. Main villain is next to act and reraises me all in and has me covered. Everyone else folds accept maniac villain who is all in. I figured he had JJ+ or AK and after really agonizing over it because of the pot odds decided to fold. Good decision? Would you have played it differently? Thanks in advance for your opinions.
Weird 1/2 hand. Bad fold? Quote
09-08-2015 , 01:54 PM
With $158 in dead money and $185 behind, this is borderline, but I like the fold. His range is basically AK and overpairs.

Based on your read, he never has a smaller pair here. Based on your previous hand history, he's a bit weighted toward AK rather than AA/KK, but I wouldn't rule those hands out in a 3-bet, protected pot. You've basically shouted "big pair," so he may see no reason to play tricky preflop this time.

You're flipping against over pairs, you're a 4-to-1 dog against bigger pairs, and the pot is $448-to-$185, roughly 2.5-to-1. He needs a LOT of AK in his range (or a bunch of AQ, AJ, KQ) to make that a +EV call.
Weird 1/2 hand. Bad fold? Quote
09-08-2015 , 02:10 PM
If your range is accurate, you're a bit less than a 2:1 dog vs his range and you're getting 2.43:1 (call 185 into 450). That's +EV (all of this assumes the blind raiser folds.)

Call.
Weird 1/2 hand. Bad fold? Quote
09-08-2015 , 02:25 PM
I think because we are 6 handed, I like the play. 9 handed, I probably just flat because there is a better chance someone will 3bet us.

Unfortunately, Villain either wakes up with a better hand or is trying to outplay us. If he wakes up with AK and 4bets us, well good for him.

How much do we have again? Do we have main villain covered?
Weird 1/2 hand. Bad fold? Quote
09-08-2015 , 03:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kansaisupra
I think because we are 6 handed, I like the play. 9 handed, I probably just flat because there is a better chance someone will 3bet us.

Unfortunately, Villain either wakes up with a better hand or is trying to outplay us. If he wakes up with AK and 4bets us, well good for him.

How much do we have again? Do we have main villain covered?
Hero's stack is the effective stack. he has to call $185 into a pot of $450.
Weird 1/2 hand. Bad fold? Quote
09-08-2015 , 03:09 PM
Anyone thinking of just calling the $54 here over min raising? We could leave ourselves open to a squeeze but min raising here pot commits us.

As played you call and pray for him to have some form of AK.
Weird 1/2 hand. Bad fold? Quote
09-08-2015 , 04:53 PM
Shove the first time; now call.
Weird 1/2 hand. Bad fold? Quote

      
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