1-3 at Horseshoe Baltimore. $15 was a pretty standard raise and usually getting 1-2 callers.

Hero ($430) is a MAWG, and is probably seen as nitty by the table, since I've been card dead for the past 3 hours (and I am kinda nitty). V1 has probably seen me limp a couple of hands and fold on the flop, and raise 1 hand in about 2 hours.

Main Villian (V1) covers, he is a 50ish Middle Eastern man, who has been playing pretty loose, especially in position, but hasn't really shown down a lot of hands. Relevant to this hand, I have never seen him raise for anything more than the minimum, which I have seen him do about 3-4 times in 2 hours, but none of those hands went to showdown (either folded immediately or after he bet the next card).

V2 and V3 are both loose, older men who are willing to splash around on the flop, but tended to have the goods if they bet or called on the turn or river. Both have about $250 stacks.

Hand:

Hero is Dealt TT in MP. Folds to Hero who raises to $15, V1 calls in CO, V2 calls on Button and V3 calls from the BB.

Flop ($56): 9 8 3. BB checks and I bet out $40. V1 min-raises to $80, and V2 and V3 fold.

I'm not really sure what to do here. All my options seem pretty awful, but I definitely feel like the C-bet was correct in the first place.

Ideas?

Deff. Betting flop for value, don't mind the sizing either, would have bet more with QQ+, I feel that in low limits players often over value draws and top pair type hands, even though V raised flop with players still left to act ( would be a bit diff. If he was closing action) I don't mind a call/eval line, yeah some of his draws have a decent amount of equity vs a 1 pair hand but I don't think I'm folding yet, grrr I'm mean if he's playing JJ/QQ+ that way and draws maybe I could find a fold but let's see what happens OTT or how many disagree with me.

grunch: call

cbet is a definite with overpair and wet board. the raise would scare me but the price is good. if anything, this guy is missing value in the long run for only ever min raising. i'd probably call down the rest of this board, maybe letting go if the flush hits (gut check on that one).

Tough spot. I'm probably calling, and then check-calling down on boards without a club or an A. Could see folding too since you're oop and rarely improve.

My range for V is sets, 98, 9x, JT, 67 and club draws. Problem is most of his club draws have at least one card higher than a ten so have a ton of equity.

In V's position, I'd make the min raise here w Axc a lot w position to try to induce a check on the turn and see a river.

This is very often A9 raising to "see where it's at."

It's also pretty often a flush or straight draw trying to get a free card. I kind of hate to say this, but we should check the turn and give it to him. We just can't afford to bloat the pot with a strong but marginal hand. If we had KK or AA I would advocate calling and leading the turn.

In previous hands, you say he's min raised before then bet the next street. What was his sizing like then? If he bet the next street small, I'd be willing to call the small bet on the next street. If he bet the next street small against the other villains but he bombs it for $150 against us, I may just fold even if it's a blank. Probably continuing if the board pairs the 3, but otherwise no.

If he has minraised then bombed the next street every time in all the previous hands, I want to get sticky and make him get to showdown this time. If there's a good time to go broke with a weak overpair for 150bbs -- which is a lot, but reasonable -- it would be on this board, against this villain. If he has bombed the turn a bunch of times and gotten folds, I'm check/raising all in on any non-club K, J, 8, 7, 6, 4, 3, or 2. Might throw the A in there

Can you tell us how big his turn bets were in the previous hands OP?

So far I'm at "call, check/evaluate turns."

nasty spot. super wet board, but your over pair has blockers to the straight and flush draws...........ugh.

I would lay it down and give the v a big smile and show the overpair in hopes that he would give you peek.

but raising into two other V's means that they don't have flush draws and if V has the flush draw it is just that much more likely to hit.

I suppose it would really suck it v showed you two red 10s, but I am still laying it down.

I am calling here and calling/betting a lot of turns. He is so likely on a draw. Raising doesn't accomplish anything, because if he re-raises, you don't know if it's a made hand or a draw, and I'm not quite ready to gii w/ one pair here. Personally, I'm never folding this flop.

I would raise a flush draw here, especially against a tight player who is unlikely to re-raise me w/o a set or AA/KK. Definitely raising a flush draw w/ a straight draw. I don't usually min-raise, but that seems to be this player's MO -- and it's working for him.

He generally bet around 1/2 to 2/3 pot on the next street. My concern is that I have never seen him (only 3 times, so small sample size) not lead the next street, and the pot is already $210 if I call here, so I'm looking at $110-140 on the turn, so I feel like I need to have a plan but I don't really know what my plan should be.

Folding feels really weak, calling feels like I'm begging him to steal the pot in position on the turn (unless I'm willing to get it all in with a weak overpair), and raising just seems like spew. Like someone said, it's a yucky spot and I just wanted a sanity check.

I hate our seat. We're deepish and OOP to a loose guy who seems to possibly be making moves at the table. I get a seat change across the table from him or to his left.

I don't think preflop is obvious. We have the loose / possibly making moves guy to our left. He's going to call, we know that, which might invite a string of callers. We're going to hate a lot of flops. Are we cool with building a big pot OOP to this guy and setting it up to be stolen from us? There's merit to a limp here, imo, at least until we get our seat change.

As played, I agree, all our options suck (and yet we KNEW this was going to happen before we put a single chip in the pot). I take the conservative route and bet/fold. And I don't raise an easily stealable hand to this guy OOP until I get my seat change.

Gpositionneedstocomeintoourdecisionmakingprocess,i moG

If you're calling here you have to be willing to call down on safe boards. If you're not willing to call a turn barrel in particular then it's probably a fold.

We should call and lead a good turn card/check a bad one. You can't totally surrender the initiative over a third-pot raise.

GG, I think you are being too conservative and straightforward here and it will cost us money if we just bet/fold. This just isn't the sort of situation where that works. AK on a KT5 board is a good bet/fold board. This is just vastly different.

Here's the deal. This guy has made this minraise move a lot of times. This means that he hit the board in some way, but since it's so drawy, he very often has a draw here. At higher levels villains may balance here by only picking certain draws to raise us with, but I'm pretty sure our villain has like all of the draws. And since he follows up with a bet on the turn so often, we can often call, and make plans for various turn cards.

I think we can safely assume, since this villain has done this so often, that his range consists of ALL the reasonable draws, and ALL the monsters. This means his range is:


1) made hands: 99, 88, 33, 98: {22 combos}

(I left JJ out since I expect this villain to 3b it some of the time. Simplifying, perhaps wrong assumption, but just go with me for now.)


2) flush draws: A/Q-J, A/8-4, A/2, K/Q-J, Q/J {11 combos}

(note: I left AK out because he might 3-bet them. I also left out lower suited connectors, again, for simplicity)


3) straight draws (included sfd's here): JT, 67 {24 combos}

(note: I left out T7 thought he may call with it suited. Also I think it may be more accurate to give him 8 combos of 67 rather than all, but again we can tweak this later)


I'm making some simplifying assumptions here to help us out. We can tweak this to be more accurate later. For now though, let's just look at these equities to get a feel for our position.


On the flop, our equity is:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

53,460 trials (Exhaustive)

board: 983

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
TcTs	51.11%	27,231	180
99, 88, 33, 98, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac2c, KcQc, KcJc, QcJc, JT, 67	48.89%	26,049	180

Not doing so great. Being out of position, we could subtract 10% of our equity and give it to him and assume we are about a 40/60 dog.


But what happens when a blank, say the 2, falls on the turn?

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

2,376 trials (Exhaustive)

board: 9832

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
TcTs	55.60%	1,321	0
99, 88, 33, 98, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac2c, KcQc, KcJc, QcJc, JT, 67	44.40%	1,055	0

It went up a little, but somewhat less than I was expecting. This is the very opposite of a WA/WB situation which makes it to interesting to look at.


What happens when the ginniest of gin cards, the T falls on the turn?

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

2,200 trials (Exhaustive)

board: 983T

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
TcTs	67.09%	1,476	0
99, 88, 33, 98, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac2c, KcQc, KcJc, QcJc, JT, 67	32.91%	724	0

And what happens when the board pairs the bottom card on the turn?

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

2,288 trials (Exhaustive)

board: 9833

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
TcTs	71.90%	1,645	0
99, 88, 33, 98, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac2c, KcQc, KcJc, QcJc, JT, 67	28.10%	643	0

Our equity is higher because we pulled ahead of 98 like last time but all those 16 combos of 67 didn't catch up.


And just to take a looksie at some bad turns for us where we might check/fold:


4 (flushes complete)

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

2,332 trials (Exhaustive)

board: 9834

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
TcTs	46.96%	1,095	0
99, 88, 33, 98, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac2c, KcQc, KcJc, QcJc, JT, 67	53.04%	1,237	0

Q (JT completes)

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

2,376 trials (Exhaustive)

board: 983Q

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
TcTs	45.29%	1,064	24
99, 88, 33, 98, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac2c, KcQc, KcJc, QcJc, JT, 67	54.71%	1,288	24

5 (67 completes)

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

2,376 trials (Exhaustive)

board: 9835

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
TcTs	30.05%	714	0
99, 88, 33, 98, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac2c, KcQc, KcJc, QcJc, JT, 67	69.95%	1,662	0

Q (flushes and JT complete)

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

2,244 trials (Exhaustive)

board: 983Q

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
TcTs	42.02%	934	18
99, 88, 33, 98, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac2c, KcQc, KcJc, QcJc, JT, 67	57.98%	1,292	18

5 (flushes and 67 complete)

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

2,332 trials (Exhaustive)

board: 9835

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
TcTs	27.36%	638	0
99, 88, 33, 98, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac2c, KcQc, KcJc, QcJc, JT, 67	72.64%	1,694	0

Now this spot is REALLY interesting because of several factors:

1. It sounds like we have a really predictable villain. He is almost definitely blasting the turn, whether we get a great card or a bad one. Normally, being out of position on a board like this sucks. But if this guy blasts the turn 100% of the time, we basically have position on him. (Like sitting to the right of a maniac.) Against a tricky villain who might use this tactic to buy free cards, maybe we can fold. Against this guy though, we probably shouldn't.

2. He min raised us, which allows us to see this turn for cheap. Basically, against this range that I've assigned him, we are priced in. Especially when we have like 50% equity vs. his range.

3. When we get a favorable card and check/raise him, we often force him to release loads of equity in a huge pot with his draws. Or, even better, he calls with the wrong odds with his draws, especially 67 where we block two of his outs. And of course, we can value own ourselves against a set.

I have to go walk some dogs right now, but I'll want to do some EV calcs on this one. Obviously, there are so many possibilities in this decision tree, so it'll only be possible to look at a few select branches as examples. If anyone else wants to do this in the meantime, be my guest...

Alls I know is that (a) we haven't actually seen Villain table a hand yet (is he making moves, or is he simply playing ABC and raising the nuts?), (b) nitty us has raised preflop, bet big into 3 players on the flop and yet *still* got raised and (c) calling the raise means we can play for 143bb stacks with smallest overpair with just two more lol small 1/2 PSBs (where from above good analysis it sounds like there will only be a handful of turn cards we're considering folding).

Gavoidthisspotinthefirstplace,imoG

I'm really glad I posted this, since I think that I really just sort of assigned him about that range, but in the heat of the moment felt like I was really behind. I could easily see him calling JJ (and maybe as a slowplay AA occasionally?), but I think the range you assign is pretty accurate.

In the heat of it, I put a lot more weight on the made hands, and a lot less on the draws. Specifically I figured I was either way behind or sort of flipping against a flush draw with over cards. Thanks a lot for running the numbers on the hand, I never would have thought that I had as much equity as I did.

I think it is an interesting spot, and I agree that if I call here, I have to be willing to call most turn cards. The issue that I had was that assuming some not too bad card came, I'd either have to bet or call a turn bet of at least $100. My issue was that I'm creating a monsterous pot with a weak overpair against a villian who is probably putting me on an overpair, and that seems to be losing strategy.