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We turn the nuts and get raised We turn the nuts and get raised

12-15-2018 , 05:31 PM
1/2

600 effective
Villain has been fairly solid. Seems to be on the snug/cautious side after 1 hr of play. Haven't seen him bluff yet but I wouldn't totally rule out the possibility of him making some moves.

Hero raises As3s in mp to 10 (covers)
villain calls otb ($600)
bb calls

flop ($30)
9d 6s 5s
hero bets $20, villain calls, fold

Turn ($70)
9d 6s 5s Ts
Pretty good card. Hero bets $40 and villain raises to $125. Hero?

On the turn we are around $570 effective. Shoving seems awkward cause its such a large bet. Could click it back to like $250 and shove any river. Or we could just flat and check shove most (all?) rivers. Is it bad to only have a strategy of flatting and folding here ott at this stack depth? Whats the play here? Thx!

Last edited by Garick; 12-15-2018 at 09:43 PM. Reason: suits
We turn the nuts and get raised Quote
12-15-2018 , 05:44 PM
how do you make the nuts with A3??
So u had 87. Is the board rainbow?
We turn the nuts and get raised Quote
12-15-2018 , 06:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SUYAPA
how do you make the nuts with A3??
So u had 87. Is the board rainbow?
I'm going to guess he had the nut flush.

Pretty awful hand history OP, to not include suits...

But assuming you turned the nut flush and you're getting raised here by someone who seems to play cautious, I'd reraise.

He might have turned a straight, which he might still have a hard time folding, but if he's capable of folding that now because of flush possibilities, he's likely checking behind you on the river if you check, so you're probably not losing value by reraising.

Why is reraising the turn better than flatting and betting the river? Because a 4th card of the same suit on the river might kill action and allow him to fold a smaller flush that is almost never folding on the turn.

Go for a small reraise on the turn that gives him great immediate odds, creating a tough fold now and also a tough fold on the river because the odds are again good for him to call. But we know that there is no scenario where you don't jam the river, so the turn reraise is effectively an all-in jam. I've talked a bunch about the "please call me" raise today in situations where I fell for it. It does work.

Last edited by GuitarDean; 12-15-2018 at 06:48 PM.
We turn the nuts and get raised Quote
12-15-2018 , 06:52 PM
Sorry I copied this over and suits didnt copy for some reason. I had A3 of spades and the board was 9d 6s 5s Ts
We turn the nuts and get raised Quote
12-15-2018 , 07:05 PM
hmm i think we gotta click it back. I will be hard for him to fold a straight. If we just call and check otr we risk that a scare card comes and that he checks back.
Or we call, hope for a good river and lead big
We turn the nuts and get raised Quote
12-15-2018 , 07:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SUYAPA
hmm i think we gotta click it back. I will be hard for him to fold a straight. If we just call and check otr we risk that a scare card comes and that he checks back.
Or we call, hope for a good river and lead big
But what extra value do we get from calling and hoping for a good river compared to just reraising now?

I see only increased downside (risk of a bad river killing action) but no increased benefit to that route.

If villain has a straight, he needs to decide to go with it or not, and that's a tougher decision on the turn with only 3 spades out. If you call and the river bricks and you lead out, he has the same decision as he would for a turn reraise; but some of the time the river brings a 4th spade and he folds.

And if he has a set (can't count on people recognizing bad boards to slowplay a flopped set on - he could have 66 or 55, decided to slowplay and then started raising when the board got really scary on the turn), he's likely going to go for the 10 FH outs OTT, while he might fold the river if it bricks.

Whether by jamming or a by using a small "please call me" reraise, I think this is a clear situation for us to get the money in now.
We turn the nuts and get raised Quote
12-15-2018 , 07:45 PM
Given that the player seems tight and cautious, I'm leaning way more towards the "please call me" reraise that might feel too good a price to fold to OTT, and leaves villain pot committed and prone to calling off the rest of his stack OTR.

Against a station, I say jam now and there's a fair chance he'll call with a straight or baby flush. If he does have a set then we want to maximize his mistake for calling with 10 outs. I mean, are you folding if the river pairs the board? Don't think so.
We turn the nuts and get raised Quote
12-15-2018 , 07:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GuitarDean
But what extra value do we get from calling and hoping for a good river compared to just reraising now?

I see only increased downside (risk of a bad river killing action) but no increased benefit to that route.

If villain has a straight, he needs to decide to go with it or not, and that's a tougher decision on the turn with only 3 spades out. If you call and the river bricks and you lead out, he has the same decision as he would for a turn reraise; but some of the time the river brings a 4th spade and he folds.

And if he has a set (can't count on people recognizing bad boards to slowplay a flopped set on - he could have 66 or 55, decided to slowplay and then started raising when the board got really scary on the turn), he's likely going to go for the 10 FH outs OTT, while he might fold the river if it bricks.

Whether by jamming or a by using a small "please call me" reraise, I think this is a clear situation for us to get the money in now.
3b when the flush hits looks and is usually extremely strong. And if we 3b a cautious player ott when the most obvious draws got there we might lose him.
Im not sure about that spot but just thinking that maybe we get more money by just calling and leading big otr
We turn the nuts and get raised Quote
12-15-2018 , 08:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SUYAPA
3b when the flush hits looks and is usually extremely strong. And if we 3b a cautious player ott when the most obvious draws got there we might lose him.
Im not sure about that spot but just thinking that maybe we get more money by just calling and leading big otr
Hmm, okay I see your point.

I still would prefer to get the money in earlier. Straights might have an easier time folding the turn and calling the river when no 4th spade comes up, but sets have a harder time folding the turn and easier time folding the river if they don't fill up, and we have reverse implied odds in the latter situation - we're 100% going to be bet into by a FH and are we folding our nut flush there? Maybe against an uber-nit, but in general very difficult to do.

It's very hard to say objectively which play is more correct here. Both have merit.
We turn the nuts and get raised Quote
12-15-2018 , 09:40 PM
Grunch from title alone: WOOHOO! Shovel in da mobnies!

Post grunch edit:

Quote:
If you call and the river bricks and you lead out, he has the same decision as he would for a turn reraise; but some of the time the river brings a 4th spade and he folds.
This.

And I'll fix the suits in your OP.

Last edited by Garick; 12-15-2018 at 09:42 PM. Reason: post grunch
We turn the nuts and get raised Quote

      
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