Should I make a small sized c-bet on this flop? Say around 25% of pot?

1-1 game, 7 handed. $160 effective.
Villain and I have played a lot together. Villain sees Hero as very tight and believes he can outplay hero with aggressive lines. Villain has already 3-bet Hero's opens a couple of times in the last 30 minutes.

Hero $4 UTG, Villain $12 UTG+1, another guy cold calls in CO, Hero 4-bets to $45, CO folds out of turn, Villain tank calls.
Flop ($100 after capped rake) AJ3 rainbow. Checks thru.
Turn J rainbow. Checks thru.
River 6. Hero??

I like sizings pre. Yeah, I'd c bet flop $25 with my whole range.

As played, I'd bet turn $25.

As played, I'd bet river $25.

We probably could've went for two streets of value here. Your line is a bit MUBS-y

OP, please don't post results until discussion dies down. They bias advice.

I'm OK with the check OTF given reads. I bet turn, since the J makes JJ way less likely, and this guy checking flop makes A pretty unlikely too. It's a b/f and as such I would never downbet it, as that often induces bluffs, ime. 1/2 pot sounds good. AP, same plan OTR.

Preflop is fine, flop would bet $40-$50 to rep AK and get value/folds from QQ/TT/99/88/77, you do block AK which is nice. Double check patterns are almost always ready to fold to a bet from my experience, so AP would bet $40 on turn. From the line to the river, Vs range looks mostly composed of middle PPs and weak Ax.

Given stacks I actually think we can consider range checking flop sometimes. Given it’s a 1-1 game, it’s probably actually better to have a polarized checking range (as hilarious as that sounds) and bet my AK/AQ type hands

Given how the hand has played out, I think we have the best hand almost always. When we lose, it’s to some stupid weak ace he 3 bet with (sometimes they won’t bet). So even if we do bet and aren’t holding the best hand, I think it’s rare we face a raise. And given that it’s live poker, we can probably discount a stronger hand than KK even more, because most of these guys go “hurp durp i has top pair must protect it”

So I’d bet small with my value as well as whatever bluffs I can possibly have her and try to tease a call from tens.


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Exactly. I am not sure how much i love a bet here with QQ/KK in this spot,so i am board with checking most hands here. Topset of A is a good check anyway in this spot, cause we have the board basically locked down.

I think you could both bet or check flop at alternating frequencies.

If Xing, I'd bet/fold turn for value.

River - if you think QQ will call, bet small, but I don't think worse will call in a 4-bet pot on this texture.

Check turn - if you bet this early, you won't really know where you are otr if you check and face a bet. Bet 1/2 pot on river and fold to a raise.

It sucks to play your exact hand, but that's kind what you have to do here with KK on A-J-x flop since you will not be called by worse over multiple streets and you really aren't denying much equity against the hands you already beat (lower PPs, random broadway gutshots - which we heavily block anyway). I think this is a one street hand OOP at most. Maybe IP I bet twice starting on turn when checked to a second time and hope QQ or Jx calls. OOP we don't have as much info ott to start barreling.

Interesting. I expect any of the 77-TT that villain has to call the river as played. I agree that intuitively this makes zero sense, but villains are so stationary and aren't thinking like that.

Vs described villain with your image I check the whole way. Alternative lines like small size flop are fine. I wouldn’t expect him to try bluffing you too often on an ace high board which is why range bet is ok. Still prefer check.

Considering this is a 4bet pot, I don't think there are enough combos of worse hands to call w/TT-77. Maybe 4 combos of KQs?