1/2 NLHE
Hero (600 effective), BTN. Has been caught betting 3 streets with midpair 6 with an Ace kicker on a K622J board by the same villain who passively check/called down with a King. Typical loose passive game, where hero usually drives the betting on the hands he's involved in.

V (~700) MP. Never played him before but loose passive limper.

OTTH
Hero dealt AQ

Pre-flop, folds to V who limps, folds to Hero who makes it $10 to go, BB cold calls, V calls. We go three-handed to the flop. Pot: $30.

Flop: AKJ
Check, check, Hero bets $30, BB folds, Villain shoves $690 . Hero?

Your having the Qc blocks most of the good draws. The over bet is so ridiculously big I'm willing to let this go because villain will have 2 pair+ a lot and your odds look good only against the weakest end of that range.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a low flopped flush, set of Jacks or QT that just want to end the hand while ahead and you are in trouble against those. If villain shows you something like TcTx/AxTc then they are not as passive as you think.

Wow I have never seen an over bet quite like this with only 60 dollars in the pot but if it was me I would let it go because most of the time you're drawing to a club. But his shove makes no logical sense. I've made crazier calls lol

We need 46% equity to call here.

We can construct ranges that give us 46% but without any prior reads, they would be mostly too optimistic and not realistic.

It usually won't be far off. The problem is it's really hard to make it actually profitable, you need to throw hands like AxTc in and even then you only make it to like 50% equity. And there are a decent number of players around who will have entirely flushes here, which is a disaster. So I'm folding as well.

Important to remember when ranging people in these spots that their thought process can often be extremely different to ours. His thinking here may be as simple as "flopped very strong hand, pile all money in" which is not even that terrible a strat at LLSNL.

Yeah for $600 I would think you're against a made (and scared) flush. 2 pair is also a possibility so you're a dog here which means it's not acceptable to trade 600 for 600 here, pity he doesn't only have 100

OP is beating two pairs other than AK, for the record. Flushes are the concern.

isn't it a flip against 2 pair there? flush draw+queen and maybe the ace hoping it's not AK he's up against

And ten. 16 outs against KJ. 14 against AJ.

Not getting nearly enough odds to even contemplate a call. Likely have 8 outs.

Easy to exploit this player by simply folding. Doubt I find a call with AA either.

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I turbo-folded, but I kept thinking I was way ahead of a weak Ace that thought I had some weird draw. He either had a weak flush or a weak Ace, and that's why it was so polarizing. Instinct tells me that this was a bad fold, but I couldn't potentially undo my 2+ hours of chipping up by possibly being behind and drawing to 7 outs. It's that sort of thinking that I'm trying to get away from, and hence the post.

Bad beats don't get me annoyed, losing big pots don't get me annoyed, stuff like this somewhat does get me annoyed. If he jammed a lot, then fine, but this was the only hand he shoved in the entire 4 hours I played at the table.

Thank you for all the responses.

He never has a weak ace here. Very, very few players turn marginal hands into bluffs, especially huge overbet shoves. He probably had a weak flush or Broadway that was scared of another club hitting.

The key here is the description of a loose/passive player. Loose passives don't shove without a monster.

A check on the flop would have been a better play. We're really not worried about draws on this flop, since they are going to mostly help us.

People only raise flush boards with flushes. Your flop bet is too big, you are blocking the hands that you want to be calling (Ax and Qc)....so what else is left? Hands that beat you and the occasional broadway hand with Tc and a pair. I'd probably either check the flop or bet small $10-15. As played, fold...V has a small flush here just about always.

Yes, this is true. Typically I would do that, but at this table I was the only one driving the betting and I wanted to build a pot. I only expected a fold or a check/call, but a check/raise was fine for me too. I just didn't expect the raise to be $690 into a $60 pot, so he did play it well if he wanted protection.

No he didn't play it well. Don't care what his hand was.

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Definitely agree as played this is an easy fold villain (described as loose PASSIVE) to limp/call and then OVER jam this flop has so many small suited connectors in his range especially with him doing this only the once. And agree that whatever he had he played it horrible. Not that it would have mattered in this spot but Im never betting pot on this board, definitely more like half pot.

Why not bet pot here? I like the bet & size from op here because often he has 2 pair/sets/straights when betting this flop multiway. The hand he currently has (marginal made hand + nut redraw) should look the same when bet. Why would you bet 1/2 pot with a vulnerable made hand here?

As for why to bet here at all? I bet a lot in position on the flop. A lot of times I have trash, backdoor stuff, etc. Not checking this otb.

Villain has a flush, a straight or a set (yes, all sets are in his range imo) and sometimes AK, so I fold and am super annoyed he plays the hand like this.

But no, I don't think this move is polarizing at all.

Can either of you shed some light on what we're ranging villain to give us almost 50% equity? I'm pretty new to Equilab and I'm trying to run more sims through it, but even giving villain an optimistic range of AxXc here with a tight range of no gap flushes, all two pair and even some Kx hands I can still only get hero to have 40% equity?



Help appreciated, lol.

Well for starters you've got the hands wrong. I had AsQc, and the flop was AcKcJc. Your equilab flop has AsKsJs, and you've given me AcQc. Even if the suits are flipped, you need to give me AcQs here, and then run the sim again.

edit: yeah whoops my bad, I knew the suits were flipped because I'd gotten almost all the way into selecting villains ranges and realised I'd done it in Spades rather than clubs.

Okay - so here it is corrected. With the same range that I did above, hero has like 60%+ equity against that range with the correct suits...

You have to start really narrowing his one pair range and increasing his FD range to get it close.

Any opinions on villains range as attached? Should we give him more suited one gappers etc? Q8s?

I am betting smaller here to keep hands that we beat in such as Ax and worse clubs. Our hand while being somewhat made, is not vulnerable imo since its drawing to the nuts. And also blocks a lot of decent made hands and drawing hands so there is less for them to continue with. Im probably betting 20 here most of the time and with stronger made hands sizing up somewhere near pot sized on non club turns. Also in particular a hand like this where against a c/r we are behind but are drawing to the nuts.

Yes I agree, but you're sizing betting on what your hand actually is rather than what you could potentially have.