Wild 2/5 game. Ive been at the table for 30 mins. People are calling $50 raises with T9o. People are calling $25 with A8 and playing for stacks on Axx. Stuff like that.

Hero ($500) limps JsJc UTG. I know...you wouldn't do it but I did. UTG+2 ($600) raises to $25. Fishy woman ($300) calls SB. I call.

Flop ($75) 6s4s2c. SB checks. I check. Pre raiser bets $100. Its been a while since I saw someone under 60 overbet the pot like that. This guy is about 40 and Ive never seen him before. I think this is the first hand hes played in the 30 mins Ive been at the table. SB folds. In general, I think this is AK or a FD more than an over pair. Thoughts? Maybe its 88-TT hoping to take it down before an overcard hits? I call.

Turn ($275) 2d. I check. He bets $250. Thoughts?

Why would we limp/call a premium at a table where people are calling huge raises with trash

Pre is fine...I limp with JJ on occasion as well, especially OOP with the game dynamic you describe.

Flop c/c looks fine too. Should look super strong to V and certainly doesn't cap you at all.

Ugh...awful turn card for us to try and get V to fold with a CR here...with no reads, I think I let it go as your only choices are shove or fold. I might make a comment like "Nice bluff with AK, I will let you have it" to try to get them to show so you can get some info.

Just about every pot was being raised. Depending on who raised, who called and how many people called, Id be happy to limp/reraise this and play for stacks. When this particular guy raised, I decided to just call.

Why not just raise UTG to $50?

V's pf raising range is probably AJ+, KQs+, 99+. Why do you think he would overbet AK? Seems like a good spot to check behind or bet smaller, potting it is uncommon and doesn't make too much sense. He could have overcards + fd but there are like 3 combos of that. If I had to guess he has a pocket pair most of the time with some random overcards some % of the time too.

At the turn he's committing himself. He's got the 3 suited overcards, 18 better overpairs and 12 worse overpairs. I think at this point you need to go with it.

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

4,488 trials (Exhaustive)

board: 6422

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
JsJ	43.78%	1,899	132
99+, AsKs, AsQs, KsQs	56.22%	2,457	132

i think it's pretty much standard to lose 100BB's with an overpair in a crazy game isnt it? Anyway if we're gonna limp JJ utg, which I presume is to set some sort of trap, then lets limp/rr that **** and gamble. Same thing on this flop, if we really do limp in to trap, this is pretty much the dream isnt it? What else are we looking for, just a set? I x/r here too. Screw it.

Readless, I'd elim AQ+ based on line. FD are hard to flop.

Beating 12 combos of TT/99, losing to QQ+, 18 combos. Numbers say gii, but if you think he's doing this with an under pair to JJ, wouldn't he raise higher pre for the same reason?

AP, I'd go against the numbers and fold.

Pre - Either L/RR after the fishy SB call, or open to $55.

If you're limp/calling a premium, then you must have some very good reads on that particular V, that the rest of the forum doesn't have, in which case you're unlikely to receive insightful feedback.

In a vacuum, limp/calling at a splashy table is the nut low. As played, I think you just fold.

I'm limp/rr-ing this hand and x/r-ing flop as well to get stacks in. I think we have to make that decision on the flop.

I'm not gonna comment on the pre flop limp since OP knows he played it in an unorthodox way.

I don't think the flop bet is a FD, IME it's either a high PP (aces or kings) or a set betting for protection. Hard to fold the flop but it's much easier to fold the turn.

yeah but this is a wild and crazy games, people shipping it with all kinds of stuff, which means V's can easily turn up with well, anything. Live players have no bluffing range, they just think if you throw chips in the pot they can scare anyone off, especially when hero has shown this much weakness.

well hero didn't show too much weakness by calling a 134% PSB otf after limp/calling from UTG, and the villain still fired almost a PSB on the turn on a card that shouldn't have helped him.

For whatever reason this looks a lot more like a 77-1010 than QQ+. For 1 buy-in I think i’m Jamming here. Sounds like a smaller PP might pay you off. Or just river a J and don’t worry about V’s holding.

I think we will see far far more QQ+ with this line from tighter/passive villains, than flushdraws or smaller overpairs- lets get that right off the bat.

At least i fold the turn. Same principle applies for me, even more so on the turn. Population tendencies is clearly to either check and take a free card with the smaller overpair/draw to avoid stacking off when they dont feel safe about their hand, or to bet smaller with a draw trying to set their own good price to hit.

So often i see LLSNL villains give indication on their hand strenght based off their betsizes. That means big bet= big hand and small bet=small hand/drawing hand.

I feel like I don't have the full story. What's the deal with this particular Villain? Super nitty? Standard TAG? What is our reasoning for treating this V differently than the rest of the table? From the sounds of the post you are worried that our JJ is no good thus opting not to 3 bet pre. V only continues to sell a big overpair with relatively small pre bet inviting action and large flop and turn bets with flush and straight draws lurking to punish overcallers. Your gut is telling you you're behind and you haven't given us enough info to confirm or deny your adjustments without details on Villain.

EDIT: I didn't read OP clearly enough. 30 mins is a tiny sample to adjust to. I think we should still 3 bet pre. Given our line I lean fold here but I'm nitty.

In villain's shoes, I'd probably think any pair 77+ is the best hand. While hero is a tighter player than average, it's easy to ignore individual tendencies and focus on the fact this is an action table. As such, your perceived range will be flush draw heavy. I prefer your line to c/r flop, as it traps the lower pairs and avoids just value owning against QQ+. I'd c/rai turn.

OTT? After we call the huge flop bet? I think is VERY optimistic ranging....

If you are intimidated by the villain so much that you declined to reraise pre, I think calling the flop overbet is unwise. Likewise, if you decide to call the flop overbet against this V, it's not to fold the turn.

Imo, I think going with the hand in a crazy game here is fine. 30 mins of reads is not a stone cold lock.

The read of not playing a hand in 30 min and the flop sizing make me lean towards a fold. Occasionally he could be overplaying TT-99 or on a flush draw or just going ham and repping AA with his tight image, but I think most of the time he’s just going to show up with AA-QQ.

w/o any other reads I'd range him 90% of the time with an overpair to the board, each with about equal probability, and the other 10% of the time as a whiffed AK/AQ.

I think the preflop limp is probably optimal in the described conditions, and calling seems okay against a tighter villain to keep his range wider in a spot where he may fold many worse hands to a raise.

Once you get such a dream runout I think you have to stack off. Your hand is massively underrepped (yes, even with the flop call)

Wat

If you dont fold flop, which would be fine btw, its this.

The OP doesn't want to hear about pf, so Ok. Your plan seems to be to trap the villain with JJ. So friggin trap him. Call the flop, call the turn, jam it in on the river. A big over bet on this type of flop is an overpair worried about an over card to his pair coming. It isn't AA or KK because those wouldn't be that worried on the flop.

Pf i’d raise.

Ap def flatting the raise, not limp reraising.

Otf i would strongly consider folding. You dont have to defend much of your range vs such a huge overbet, especially 3-way bc the other player also has to defund at some frequency. I expect to see JJ+ here a lot sometimes sets and big broadway draws like AQss/AKss

Ott i’d fold again.

Having the Js is also another downside.

Looks like a pretty mixed bag. I counted 9-7 people wanting to get all in vs people wanting to fold flop or turn.

I pretty much agree with Venice10's thoughts. No way hes overbetting the flop and then pounding the turn with QQ+ so I crai. He had KK. I havent seen someone under 70 bet like that in a while and I most likely wouldve folded the turn if he had bet around $160 or so.

I got bailed out by the river J though.

that's an oxy moron. There's no way he has a big over pair but he did.

If you l/rr'd pre and he 4bet jammed you what would you do (try not to be results oriented think of his tightness never playing a hand in 30 min. and think of his range)