Hey,

this is not a hand in specific. Im just gonna to describe how a villain plays in my casino, after hours and hours of observing him. He has a fixed way to play, and Although I have some ideas how to exploit it, I wonder if over here people come up with some ideas how to play against his robotic play.

From AA-JJ +AK, he raises 12 to 16, or three bets a previous raiser. He is capable to fold JJ if 4bet.

From 22-99 he limps and calls a small raise. TT may raise in position, or min raise, or even limps. TT here is something that I haven't figured it out, the top underpaid I saw him play was 99.

So, he limps with those 22-99 and if he hits set, checks-raises. If the flop is all undercards to his pairs, he donks it.

He limps as well with suited connectors and trash like J5s, but let them go if somebody raises.

So, I wonder, how is the math here in order to 3bet him light in position, so he fold when he doesn't connect. How many times out of many times that raising and c-betting light have it work to make that strategy profitable?

Also, any more ideas how to exploit his tendencies?

In position, isolate him with a very wide range when he limps.

The act of a) raising his limps + b) c-betting when he limp/calls will be very profitable.

Play implied odds hands in position when he raises.

Only 3-bet him with, of course, an incredibly nutted range. KK+. Flat QQ. Reason is obvious - like you said, his open raise range is super nutted and he may fold JJ.

Never ever 3-bet him light. You might not have the right definition. A raise over a limp is just a "raise." A raise over an open raise is a "3-bet." Never 3-bet him light.

He's just an especially predictable loose/passive opponent. Dealing with him isn't really rocket science, and he is essentially the ideal opponent.

FYP.

Willy nailed it. He's the bleeder in the game. You're not going to get his stack frequently because he isn't going to put a lot of money in without a legitimate hand. What he does is whittle off his stack. He contributes a little to a lot of pots which makes it seem to him that he's just unlucky to lose. If he'd just get his fair share of good flops, he'd be a winning player in his mind.

When he does win, it is because the another player assumes because he's loose pf, he has to be loose post flop and pays him off. The room loves him since he plays for hours and helps pump up the rake.

Just to add some more clarification here:
The reason that we 3bet light against most villains is exactly what you said, that we think that they will either fold too often pre flop, or fold too often post flop (or they have some other weird tendency that we have picked up on, but whatever).

With a player like this, he doesn't "miss" post flop that much, and he won't fold that much pre flop as his range is very strong. He will have an pocket pair over the board a healthy portion of the time when he calls your bets pre flop. And we can't move him off of hands like AJ/AT post flop because he just doesn't have them in his raising range.

I disagree on this one. If he raises 12-16, the rule of 20 is 240-320. You will catch him sometimes, but it will be pretty obvious to him and the table what you're doing.

I just muck unless I'm holding over, and let him waste his powder.

Pairmaster with flushmaster tendencies.

Stack depth matters, but you have better implied odds against this guy than against your average villain. He didn't come to the casino to play passively all day and then open raise AA to 12 and fold later in the hand. And nothing is obvious to this guy - he's probably a level 1 player just thinking about his own hand. And if someone starts putting in pre-flop squeezes when you flat, then adjust.

Having a "rule of 20" or however you want to do it is more important when you have a villain with a wider pre-flop range. Against a guy who has such a nutted pre-flop range, yes, you still do need to be disciplined in terms of how much you can call off pre-flop, but you can exploit villain's tight opening range by calling with hands that can beat his hands more often than against others.

Having a consistent "rule" about how much you can call off against anyone can work OK as a bit of a crutch, but it is imprecise. That number actually changes vs. every villain you play, so you want to hone on in the exact villain and situation.

Yes, make a good point that stack depth matters. But I'm willing to go after seemingly thinner implied odds against this opponent specifically. Also, not sure how he plays post-flop, but maybe he doesn't c-bet when he whiffs AK... or maybe he checks and gives up with JJ-QQ on A/K flops. Like normally you should c-bet JJ on A62r.. but perhaps he doesn't because he plays passively.

Calling isn't 100% about the implied odds - we also get to play skillfully in position against a predictable opponent.

Yeah, there are times I won't muck (OTB T9s etc). Probably just semantics about what "implied odds hands" means.

But mostly I'd rather get very familiar with how he plays those post before starting to invest.

Thanks y'all for the responses. How about this one?

I my experience, they will often "float" your c-bet, so you need another barrel. But then he'll fold pretty much 100% of the time if he hasn't improved, except when he has the nut flush draw.

Just pot, pot, and you're golden, I would say.

If you've worked out his various ranges so well he'll be a dream to play against.

I once played with an old man who despite repeated warnings from me would hold his cards up in plain view for me to see. I started playing every pot I could with him because I knew his range exactly.

You don't have that kind of advantage but you're on the same spectrum. Previous posters' advice is solid.

If this villain is so predictable, one of your exploits is simply being able to make bigger laydowns than you could against a random opponent. It sounds like there is a chance you might actually be able to fold a hand like bottom set on the flop in certain scenarios.

Grunch

I would be raising his limps rampantly probably w up to 40 percent of the hands dealt especially in position. Make sizeable raises because I think the way you really beat a player like this is to grind away at him w the set mine portion of his range.

Because you'll be raising so often I would cbet only about half pot each time and fold to resistence unless you're near the top of your range. Since his fold to cbet seems to be very high playing hit or miss, this should be incredibly profitable in and of itself. Don't waste your time Bluff raising him if he leads. Against this player yo u have it when you raise if you like money. Once he starts to put money in postflop, he doesn't fold. Don't add to his profits.

As for 3 betting, especially light, I would not advise it vs this player type.

Let's recognize first that we Always have equity and to 3 bet that we will often have position. We also know that his raising range is particularly strong, as most of his midstrenghth hands are limped.therefore he will often have hands that he either 4 bets or maintains the lead and calls down. Let's FLAT his raises w hands that play well in position and take him to value town w everything greater than one pair as he seems very likely to defend his entire stack w any overpair.