Villian I played this hand with is a mid twenties aggressive, winning 2-5 regular at the casino. I've only played one brief session with him and we didn't play one pot together. A friend of mine has played with him a few times and considers him to be a very good, tricky player capable of making plenty of "moves." He has only been at my table for a few hours and has been pretty aggro and has taken down a few pots without showdown. I'm not sure if has an opinion on my game, but I would guess he views me as average 2-5 grinding nitt. Here is the hand:

Folded around to villian in the cutoff who makes his standard open to $20. I flat him on the button with aq offsuit, small and big blind fold. Heads up to the flop. I have about $650 to start the hand and villian has me covered.

I'm sure we can make arguements for three betting, but I decided to flat.

Flop: As 5s 9d : villian bets $25 into $47 and I call

Turn: (pot = $97) 3c : villian bet $55 and I call again

I think flop and turn are pretty standard. Villian can bet twice with a ton of hands and my hand is somewhat under repped so I'm obviously not folding.

River: (pot = $207) 9h : villian checks to me. I bet $90, pretty much expect a snap fold, but villian tanks for a few seconds then puts me all in for my remaining $450 or so.

I bet small on the river without a plan, because I thought villian had air and just gave up on the hand. I thought he might have "misclicked" when he shoved all in, but it really did happen.

Call or Fold?
Call or Fold?

as played fold ...i would have checked that river back

id say he has the nine... itll cost you 450$ to find out

I would 3bet pre given villain's image and likelihood that you are beating a large percentage of his raising range from the HJ, in addition to having the button. As played, I would call the river. I can't see him playing AK or a 9x like this by check raising the river. It feels as though villain might have a busted flush draw or AJ-Ax, and the CR on the river feels as though he is trying to get you to fold a better ace or bluff a busted FD.

What are your reasons for checking back this river?

If villian views me as an average 2-5 player, he would probably not check monsters on the river. I'm guessing he would just be betting his value hands and not risk me checking back the river with an ace. When I make such a small river bet, I'm assuming he is putting me on ace queen or ace jack.

Three betting is obviously a good option, but I was content with seeing a cheap flop in position with an under repped hand against a villian that might overplay his hand and/or try and outplay me.

Your right about "I can't see him playing ak like this," and I totally agree because nobody plays ak like this. But, is this not a pretty interesting line to take with ak?

its very possible he puts you on a missed FD and he proberbly has a hand like TT JJ or he could also have KQ KJ and be trying to bet you off a weak ace or obv missed FD.

Id call your hand is very under repped.

This looks a lot like an 89 of spades type hand and its really hard to bluff here. If he's checkraising its because he thinks you have either no hand and have to bluff or a hand good enough to value bet, which your image as a nitty reg would suggest you do. I personally would take this line with a set or 9 and maybe even as light as AK. Bluffing here seems like a bad idea. I would fold this and not feel bad about it.

If you 3-bet pre and barrel the flop and turn, you're probably not gonna be in this spot.

You would actually risk checking this river and letting me check back with maybe a decent ace, with basically no reads on me besides I'm somewhat of a regular?

I think most decent or bad regs would be content to check back everything but ak on this river and some really bad players will even check that. I see it all the time at 2-5. It crossed my mind for a second to just turn my hand over when villian checked for fear of exactly what happened.

You are 100 percent right, but villian obviously has such a wide range here and if he does view me as nitty I'm guessing he will just fold pre and wait for a better spot. Plus I have not been active at all in the hour or two he has been at the table so he has to give my 3-bet respect.

100% fold

It really depends on the guys perception of you. I wouldn't do it with everyone but the way you played your hand looks exactly like a missed flush draw or a big ace. If its a competent LAG he realizes that he is repping close to nothing on the river and i dont see how he expects you to fold.

Of course if its the kid with the justin beiber haircut and black ear widener ear rings or the red head guy that wears a lot of white tee shirts you might actually have the best hand somehow.

So you are assuming villian is never bluffing?

+1

Check raises OTR are RARELY bluffs if he is good for him.

It's perfectly repped imo

If we are viewed as a tighter player he knows for sure we have AJ-AK or 99 like always. I dont think good players try to blow off a tight player much, imo this is polarized, but much more weighted to the monster end of his range. I gotta fold here...

His line in this hand seems suspect to me. He bets half pot, half pot, and then check raise AI? I am not saying it never happens, but check raise river bets for value are rare IMO at 2-5NL. OTR, did he hesitate any before checking to you? If so, I would be more apt to give him credit, because he at least considered leading the river.

I suppose AA makes sense with this line - he bet small twice to keep you in and then figures you either have a missed FD or a 9 OTR against which the best play is a c/r. But, there is only one combo of AA possible. With other strong hands like 33, 55, 99, or A9, he has to give more consideration to you checking back the river with a missed FD or Ax, and so is more likely to lead for value.

With your line, he probably doesn't read you for a strong hand. He would have expected you to raise earlier in the hand with all strong hands but 9x, and he probably thinks that 9x is an unlikely hand for you. So, he probably puts you on a range of Ax or a missed FD, and could think that he can push you off of your hand.

Getting nearly 2:1 and having an underepped hand versus a fishy line from an opponent capable of adv bluffs, I am probably calling here.

I really like your answer. When villian shipped it on me, I was ready to insta muck thinking that nobody check raises river as a bluff at 2-5. But, I started thinking about all the points above and gave myself a really big headache.

please post results soon

I called and villian mucked.

Wow, nh

*grunch*

VS any normal 2-5 grinding reg or rec player I think this is a snap fold. This V is different though. He's thinking, aggro,and "has plenty of moves" but that still doesn't mean it's a snap call here. IMO this V has complete air or a 9 as played. Now looking at the hand you called 2 streets, pretty much telling him your hand is an average ace ( AJ at best in his mind prob) he views you as a normal 2-5 reg, which in my game means your a nit and aren't very good and love to fold non nutted hands fairly easy. So anyway you tell him your not that strong, he checks to give up and you make a crazy bet that any good player will shove all day. Unfortunately for you, you bet the perfect amout, with the perfect amount left behind for him to jam his whole range on you. I do this all the time in my game, check the turn or river like I'm going to give up and they ablidge by making a big bet with there mediocre holding and I jam on them and they sit there with there heads spinning not knowing what to do. If I played the hand like you against this villain it would be with the intention to snapcall if he shoves. He never has AA. Only possible Hand is 9x but IMO he's a deceit tricky reg and is playing your range and picked up on your goof by betting. Well played by him and good call if you called. If he showed a 9x type hand dont fret it's a good call vs this V almost always next time just bet that 90 to induce instead of valuebetting

well if villain views u as a nit + your less than half pot river bet, i like his line...you should always fold most of ur range there (which doesnt have any 9's really)...

This is a situation where I feel like we have made our hand blatantly obvious.. problem here is villain is also very tricky. I like a checkback on the river here because nothing but better hands call or raise us and betting small puts us in this awful spot. Id say just fold because we are in left field on Vs range.

his range has way more 9's and nutty hands than urs...i love his line!

AK can't be ruled out, however if he had AK, his raise on the river is bizarre. Against percieved range, I'd still call as you have him beat most of the time with given action IMO.