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Old 03-19-2019, 07:09 PM   #26
branch0095
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Re: Very Deep Stacked Facing Pot Sized Turn Donk Bet

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Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
No, what he said is correct. Even though you are also correct (there are more naked draws or weak pair+draws etc) those hands are not putting an additional cent in the pot otr if they miss. The value to be had from those hands is ott. Itís a texture thing.

How many times have you sized weird and bet like $200 ott and left villain $100 otr (or whatever, you get the idea) and stuff river and villain sheepishly folds. Thatís because on this kind of texture their river decision will always be binary...nuts or nothing. This isnít a Kxxr flop where we can do different things with sizings targeting a weak king.

Itís a combo draw texture flop where villain is always folding river unless he hits. Or he is not folding turn anyway (if he has a set, etc)

Im with you. On this board texture I think the value is in targeting the draws and trying to get them to commit right here. I don't want to just raise to $350 or so and give V a somewhat decent price to draw, and then the ability to only commit the rest of his stack on the river when he makes his hand. If he has something like a set it's going in anyways and we'll win or lose the pot depending on whether the board pairs. I'd be much happier to see V fold his hand here uncontested then I would be to see him put half his stack in now and have the ability to play perfectly OTR with the rest of his stack.
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Old 03-19-2019, 07:23 PM   #27
Gauntlet
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Re: Very Deep Stacked Facing Pot Sized Turn Donk Bet

I'm getting more and more convinced that a jam is the appropriate play.
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Old 03-19-2019, 07:33 PM   #28
Avaritia
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Re: Very Deep Stacked Facing Pot Sized Turn Donk Bet

Yea. I mean overbetting is fun anyways. This really isnít an overbet all things considered, but people will start to think your nuts if you start ob in all the right spots.

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Old 03-20-2019, 05:31 AM   #29
DonkeyRock
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Re: Very Deep Stacked Facing Pot Sized Turn Donk Bet

There's a lot of talk about what the villian's hand looks like but less about what the villian perceives our range to be when we jam. It looks way more like we have an overpair/hand that needs protection when he jam so they are likely to call wider feeling they have better equity than they do.
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Old 03-20-2019, 07:40 AM   #30
Gauntlet
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Re: Very Deep Stacked Facing Pot Sized Turn Donk Bet

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Originally Posted by DonkeyRock View Post
There's a lot of talk about what the villian's hand looks like but less about what the villian perceives our range to be when we jam. It looks way more like we have an overpair/hand that needs protection when he jam so they are likely to call wider feeling they have better equity than they do.
Excellent point. Thank you. It speaks to my earlier concerns of wasting value. I really hadn't thought of it in the terms that we would get called lighter because it looks so much like QQ through AA.
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