So yesterday I played a very cool and pretty interesting hand in a friendly homegame.

Villain is pbb the best player at the table (with me), very comfortable playing live, plays a lot of midstakes (2/5 & 5/10) homegames live, and is basically crushing them. he isn't as much GTO based as I am, as he is willing to take very straightforward lines in spots when he is strong. We don't have that much history, we've played like a couple of maybe max 200-300 hands live with each other, and we haven't really played any big or interesting pots against each other, at least not before yesterday.

So there was one funny/interesting hand before in the homegame. At that time, we were playing 7max, villain opens UTG+1, I flat btn J9 (bb comes along as well)

Anyway villain bet bet jammed on KT99Q and I open folded J9, after tanking for close to 2 mins i guess. Villain told me he flopped gin with TT, so gg me. Think he should be checking the river almost always against me, but he thought I wouldn't be folding a straight anyway.

So yeah, although he is a good friend of mine, we don't really talk a lot of strategy (like ever) because i'm mainly a tournament player, and he mostly plays live/a lot of PLO too. So bear in mind he doesn't have much of a clue what i'm capable off. Think he respects me as a player tho, and pbb perceives me as the best player next to him.

Then the actual hand (I'm not 100% sure i've got all the details right, but it should be accurate more or less)

We are now playing 6max, villain covers hero who starts hand with roughly +- 150bb)

Villain (CO) opens to 3bb
I flat SB (I would be flatting sb much wider, because the bb was on the rather tight side, so I basically saw the sb as a bb spot anyway, this is interesting for the rest of the hand)
BB folds

Flop (+- 7bb pot) Ts 7s 5x

Hero check/calls a 4bb bet

Turn (15bb pot) 2s

Hero check/calls 11bb

River (37bb pot) 7x

Hero contemplates his decision, is thinking about leading but decides to check pretty fast anyway.

Villain reaches for chips pretty quickly and bets 29bb

Hero jams +- 130bb (so 100bb more) after taking +- half a minute I'd say. Not a snapshove, not a really long tank either.

Villain is immediately disgusted and wants to throw up all over the table.

So yeah now the real questions:

What could/should hero shove for value?
What is the weakest hand in villain's valuerange to bet bet bet?
What should villain be calling with (the worst hand he calls my ch/jam with)?
Which hands could hero turn into a bluff? Which hands are the nutbluffs? What hands do we just want to call/fold river with?

So to recapitulate:

- it's a pretty loose homegame
- hero is flatting the sb pretty wide (because of the tight bb, and just because it's a homegame with friends, and you don't want to be folding all the time obv), so hero will sometimes have the occasional 75s T7s (those are not much combo's anyway, so doesn't matter a ton)
- villain doesn't have much of an idea how I play in a lot of spots (what my x/r freq are etc)
- Hero most likely doesn't have any 22 combo's, could have TT sometimes but is more likely to 3b them pre, could very well have 77, altho it's one combo)
- Villain does have a brain/is pretty good (esp in live poker)

will post results later, thought it was a very cool hand, and didn't really expect to get in such a spot in a friendly homegame

WUG?

V given description prob fires AT all the way. I would Value shove prob like J-high plus flushes on the river, as V may discount your flushes due to no raises prior to the river sets are a possibility for you but greatly discounted due to pre- flop, your bluff range is pretty small like the busted OESD.

1) A full house.
2) 7x
3) His hand doesn't really matter. Your range is polarized. You don't rep many flushes here. So he can call with a hand as weak as two pair if he thinks you're bluffing.
4) Blockers are overrated in hold em.

Ts 7s 5x - 2s - 7x

I'm not seeing anything to indicate unusual ranges here, for players who are loose and thinking, even a range of {22+, 32s+, 42s+,Axs, Kxs, KT+} doesn't seem large enough

Betting isn't unusual, until the river shove. Could be leveling, could be based on prior 'big hand'.

You folded the straight on the paired board. He won't expect you to shove a flush on the paired board. So maybe you shoved the flush, knowing that he expects you to be stronger. Of course, he knows that you know he won't put you on a flush. So maybe you are shoving the flush.

What could/should hero shove for value?
I'm shoving any full house for value. I'm not shocked if I end up shoving an underfull and get coolered, but if my deuces fill up and lose to 75, so be it.

What is the weakest hand in villain's valuerange to bet bet bet?
V is betting every flop? 100%cbet?
So what does he turnbet? 1pr+, draws+.
Why the rivebet? For a bluff on a missed draw? Maybe, but he question is about valueranges.
I can see V fire with T2, 2 pair that got counterfeited, but not for value.
I'll say that he's got a JT at worst, if he is betting for value. Bigger T may have raised at some point. Weaker T might call the whole way.


What should villain be calling with (the worst hand he calls my ch/jam with)?
If he believes you are straightforward, he's got to have 7s full at least. Maybe a crying call with 55 or 22.


Which hands could hero turn into a bluff?
ATC, if V believes us to be straightforward.

100BB into a 200BB pot. V needs to be right 25% of the time.

Most H won't bluff shove.

Which hands are the nutbluffs?

Clarify. If you mean blockers, As probably fits, but I don't see the flush being repped here.

What hands do we just want to call/fold river with?

If I believe V to be on JT+... I'm folding worse (maybe finding a crying call with other Tx?).
I'm calling with JT+, flushes.
Raising boats.

ok, so results were pretty interesting. I check/shove and he immediately hates it. after tanking for close to 2 mins, he decides to let it go and shows q9ss. I let him pick one, he picks the As and I feel like i am the GOAT because I had AsTc. I was particulary interested wether my friend should ever fold the Q9ss here, and as it seems the opinions are fairly divided.

In terms of blockers, this hand felt like a really good blufcombination, as we do block TT, T7s and the nutflush (which I don't think he can ever fold, right?)

Haven't really done any serious math on it, but I genuinely think he shouldn't be folding a queen high flush vs me (but again, he saw me making a pretty sick fold earlier, and doesn't know a lot about my game so I guess I used my image to my advantage)

Also I was interested what hands he would bet 3 times with. Ingame I felt/though he would barrel AT+ Overpairs+ for value, so if he decides to do so, and he folds all those + a few flushes, i have a very very profitable bluff ofcourse. After the hand he told me, he was hesitant about betting river at first, he just felt I might ch/j river and he would be in very tough spot. He also told me he wouldn't bet overpairs or AT anymore on river, as he respects my game too much. So i don't know, whether it was a v good bluf from my part, a very bad fold from him. Ingame, I was pretty happy with my play (I still am) but it might be a bit worse than I thought if he's checking back hands like AT & Overpairs. Still think he shouldn't be folding a queen high flush tho. Valuecombo's I have are like

77: +- 0.80
T7s, 75s: 2.5 maybe?
TT: 0.1 maybe
55: close to 3

and a few A high flushes: so I guess like 6-7 combo's again

don't think he should be folding, and I pbb am turning way too many hands into a bluf, because I believed he was rather straightforward, so would bluff less Ksx hands than he pbb should, which would calling AT, KT, QT, JT make less profitable then...

All in all, a very interesting hands imho from both our POV. What do you guys think now?

It always depends on the dynamic of the game, especially with home games, but I don't think I've ever actually seen someone bluff in this spot at LLSNL. That probably makes it a good spot to bluff in against a very good player who knows this line is almost never a bluff. I don't think that makes his fold bad though, as he's almost never good here 25% of the time, except against maniacs who will overplay 7x type hands. Based upon your history it doesn't seem like he would put you in that category so I think he has to lay it down barring some live read.

BBV is

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that way.

I'll leave it at this: If the villain called you, would you have posted this hand?

does it matter? was just interested whether he should fold or not. pbb should have posted it in other section anyway. too ambitious hoping for some very in depth analysis in this section i guess. (like a CR EV analysis or w/e)

maybe i'll do it myself if I find the time/feel like doing so

Even though OP is well written, I think perceiving actual table dynamics is tough, so analysis can be challenging. As V, if I felt H was a good player, I'd be calling the jam. For me, H is repping somewhere between nothing and 75, A7s, 7x, flushes and bluffs. If I was b/f the river as V with an overpair, I'd go more like 1/2 pot. If I lucked into trips as V, I can better understand the surprise and indecision when facing the c/r. AP, his fold comes down to his impression of your game, it would seem.

No in depth analysis is necessary. You spent 130BB to win 69BB. He has to fold 65% of the time for this to break even. Since he said he wouldn't bet TP or OP on the river, you managed to catch the very bottom of his river betting range. Since he said he respects your game, the conclusion is that he blundered badly on the river because he didn't pay attention to the difference between absolute strength and relative strength. That was the big mistake. You needed to be bluffing at least 38% of the time to make a call BE. I can understand him thinking you're not bluffing much more than that, so at worst not calling is a minor error.

This.

Can we make it a mandatory PAHWM if OP doesn't clearly state Hero's holdings?
Otherwise it really becomes pretty meaningless to be forced to analyze a hand blind...I don't play poker blind, why would I analyze your hand blind? This isn't a pop quiz from middle school.

Also please read a sticky. This hand is a mess and I (and most posters) am not reading all that or answering all those questions.

Just my $0.05.

Think questions I posed are far more relevant than the majority of people starting a thread. Once in a while, it's actually nice not knowing holecards. Def in this spot, where results are somewhat remarkable (at least imho).

Question: do you think posts/reactions will be the same if I immediately post results? I strongly believe there is some 'result bias' in a lot of threads. When I would have told you instantly I had Astc and villain folded q9ss I'm fairly certain posts/answers here would have been different.

I don't care about the rules. Think OP is pretty well written, and history was somewhat relevant, so I tried to sketch it as good as possible.

Sure people might be too lazy to read/think about it but that's just the nature of poker players I guess. I myself am also guilty of this when I see a very long OP, or some questions I'm not sure of, so it's free to ignore it for anyone.

Anyway. Thx all for your opinions

One more thing. How can you describe it as analysing blind? You may be not analysing one specific hand combo, but given action you could qnalysis at least a narrowed range from both our sides.

I actually find threads where results aren't imediately revelead the most interesting. Youngdiam had one earlier in hstakes mtt which would have been a total different thread if he immediately revealed his hole cards..

As I said to the mod, if you don't want to disclose hole cards it should be a PAHWM. Results should never be given.

Info is fine, but this could have been way more concise.

Sorry if I came across as brash. I encourage you to post more but responses to this type of OP will be severely limited. Also the first part of my message was moreso to the mod than to you.

sorry not really familiar with the term 'PAHWM'

It's fine, I understand what you're saying

Is this Wild Card Hand sponsored by Jack Links? I have zero problem with villain river fold. Based on the action, he's repping a pretty strong hand. For you to check-shove the river when you've shown to be a tight player, he has at very best a crying call. Yes, his pot odds aren't bad, but I find calling in these situations to generally turn up what you expect- a better hand. From your perspective, I think this play is somewhat about blockers (though As is nice of course) and more about psychology. You've shown to be a tight player. You know he's a thinking player. The ingredients are right for this situation. Some minor changes to the mix, and it would be a very risky play.