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value on river? value on river?

01-12-2011 , 09:00 AM
So this was live 3/5 nl 9max.

I mostly play 6max so my hand reading at 9max isn;t the best as the ranges are a little different.

----stack sizes
-------me 1600$
-------villain 2k +

So villain is utg + 1 limps and everyone folds to me on the cutoff or button (cant remember). I have KQo and pop it to 25$. The sb folds and the bb calls. (bb is the big fish, playing literally 99% of hands, dont remember a fold) and then the villain calls.

Villain seems to be semi-decent for a live player. More on the aggressive side then passive. Seen him raise all big pairs pre, and ATo from hijack and AQo from utg. And when fish joined table at end of night he increased his pfr raise size to 6bb.

Anyways so my hand range for him is 22-77, and suited connectors based on hes shown aggression with good hands and has limped with the worst of it.

Flop comes: QQT (around 80$)
Fish checks, villain checks, i cbet 65$
Fish folds, villain calls.

Turn: 9 (2 cards to flush) (around 200$)
Now I think he would call the flop with most small pocket pairs, T9s might of limped, JK and TT i never see in his range as i think he would raise pre.

I bet 150$ and villain calls.

River: 2 (total blank)
Now the turn call kind of got me worried. His turn call means small pocket pairs are out of his range. So has either Q.xxx (never will have AQ, KQ) or he some how got set of nines.

I dont know, would you value bet the river?

Last edited by venice10; 01-12-2011 at 09:30 AM. Reason: Don't put results in your OP. Come back tomorrow with them
value on river? Quote
01-12-2011 , 09:21 AM
you gotta be that river everytime... no questions asked
value on river? Quote
01-12-2011 , 01:25 PM
Easy value bet. I'm looking to bet around $200-$300. I think his probable holdings are JT/J9/T9, so I bet to try to extract from hands like that. Probably on the smaller side to try and ensure a bluffcatch. I expect him to fold a lot though. If he does c/r that's when you have a tough decision, and I would probably lean towards a fold in that case, but could definitely see myself calling with a read.
value on river? Quote
01-12-2011 , 01:28 PM
Very good betsizing on the flop and the turn. With the image you described this villain will have worse hands than you a large % of the time. I'm guessing the villain checked to you on the river, feels like QJ/Q8 or something silly. Plus I don't think this guy has the nuts to c/r with a boat, but I've been wrong before

Bet $285-$325 imo
value on river? Quote
01-12-2011 , 03:36 PM
I check behind. He's UTG + 1, and I don't see anywhere that the guy is a donk. My guess is he has KQ, KJ or J9. The only queen you're beating is QJ, and it's debatable if QJ actually flats the call and turn especially since you said the guy is normally more aggressive. I expect to see a straight a lot of the time here.

I just don't see you getting three streets of value here against anyone decent. Someone with Tx calling three times?? Q8 or worse? Really? From UTG + 1? My impression was that the guy is competent; no competent person will call a 3rd bet here unless you're beat. Having said that, you're good enough here often enough that there's no reason to bet (with the intention of bluffing).
value on river? Quote
01-12-2011 , 04:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by impressed
I check behind. He's UTG + 1, and I don't see anywhere that the guy is a donk. My guess is he has KQ, KJ or J9. The only queen you're beating is QJ, and it's debatable if QJ actually flats the call and turn especially since you said the guy is normally more aggressive. I expect to see a straight a lot of the time here.

I just don't see you getting three streets of value here against anyone decent. Someone with Tx calling three times?? Q8 or worse? Really? From UTG + 1? My impression was that the guy is competent; no competent person will call a 3rd bet here unless you're beat. Having said that, you're good enough here often enough that there's no reason to bet (with the intention of bluffing).
i really never expect to see the straight here and we're beating all the hands you guessed. if you're playing that scared to where you don't wanna bet the river you're playing the wrong game
value on river? Quote
01-12-2011 , 05:20 PM
River value bet is extremely villain dependant in this spot.

If villain was a calling station, then absolutely, I bet river here, 2/3 pot.

but the only queen you beat in this spot is QJ. I can't see villain calling a raise UTG+1 with something like Q8s.

Speaking of villain, you haven't really give us much in the way of a profile, other than saying he is 'semi-decent'. I'd prefer a description of him that included a hand that was played out or something that speaks to his play on each street rather than just preflop.

The only hands that call the flop bet are pockets hoping to turn gin, Qx, and KJ.
Come turn, the only hands that call are TT, 99, Qx and KJ
The only Qx that you beat is QJ so we are skating on some really thin ice here.

So, if villain is a station that will call down in this spot with AT, KT type hands (and I see these all the time even on paired boards) then absolutely, bet river here.

But if villain is at all a decent thinking player, then this is a check back.

Based on your villain description (kinda sketchy) i'd, check back. I'd expect to see villain show up here with KJ. That hand is good enough to call down but not good enough to raise or bet out.

Last edited by dgiharris; 01-12-2011 at 05:25 PM.
value on river? Quote

      
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