2/5 nl Foxwoods

Hero: mawg. was tilting hard early in the day, and has shown down a bluff or two. Has a loose image and is known to three bet light. Has about 1500 in front of him now.

Villain

Young bearded white man. Mid twenties most likely. Has been very tight and hasn’t shown any bluffs. Has seen hero in his morning Tilty phase, and caught him bluffing early. Has a comparable stack to hero’s

From the hijack villain raises to 25 dollars. Cutoff calls. Hero wakes up in the sb with kckd, and reraises to 95. Villain considers a few moments and calls.

Flop: 10h 5h 2d

Hero bets 120, and villain calls.

Turn 8d. Hero?

At this point I’m almost positive he has qq. It’s my gut feeling. My question is this:

Do you continue to go for value based on your feeling or do you maintain pot control because of stacks and check here?

If I'm almost positive he has QQ then I'm definitely not checking. I think that you weren't really all that positive if you're asking this question.

Im betting $225

Too small pre, especially given 300 BB stacks. Keep betting - $250-300 or as much as you think he’ll call.

Can’t imagine a range for V where cowboys don’t have huge positive equity. Are you going to lay it down if V raises H all in?

No, but I do think that villain could be trapping with aces. He’s seen hero get out of line a couple of times throughout the day.

I guess I wasn’t 100% sure about the queens more like 80-85% sure. But I didn’t get the impression it was aks or something like that. I was only thinking aa or qq. But leaning heavily towards qq

keep betting

More pre OOP and with a spewy image
AP barrel turn 300 to set up 1k psb riv shove

Value for sure

Well 1 combo of KK in his range, 1 of AhKh, 6 of AA, 6 of QQ, 6 JJ, and 3 of TT. You shouldn’t be 100% sure in my view. An A on the river will probably kill the action. V didn’t 4 bet pre so there’s that. On the flop V just called with 2 hearts on board. So yeah I would discount V trapping with AA.

If you "know" he has QQ, then it is an easy bet, especially if you aren't folding to a raise.

Your real question is whether you actually "know" that. That can't be answered in this format with any certainity.

My only doubt came from wondering if he was trying to trap me with aces since he had seen me barreling early. It didn't feel like AK (especially since I'm blocking K's) or JJ, and 1010 especially by the river was not likely.

These are the results:

I checked the turn, he checked behind.

River was a ten. I decided to bluff catch so I checked again and he bet out 250. I called to take it down. (He did have QQ in the end)

I guess I did miss some value, which is why I came here to ask around. I thought building a huge pot with a deep stack and only one pair might have been problematic.

The real question becomes, when we have these gut feelings about one hand, is it better to follow it down the rabbit hole, or to play how we normally would?

Some value is an understatement. This is one of the cleanest boards you’ll ever see to get 300 BB’s in KK vs. QQ. You don’t want to make it a habit of getting $1500 in the middle with KK unimproved, but a big turn bet would have set up a PSB river shove.

It’ll likely be hundreds upon hundreds of hours if not longer before a similar opportunity presents itself.

+1 to both points, pot control it is overrated

Points taken. Gives me something to think about next time I play.

I will say however, I doubt I would have gotten two more streets of value out of him. I saw him make some pretty big laydowns earlier (laid down three queens to an unassuming boat) and the way he checked behind on the turn led me to believe he was all ready considering the fact that I wasn't fooling around. But still, thanks everyone, gives me some things to consider.

That makes your flush draw barrel offs a pretty great idea imo. Make a strategy he just can't win against

It's interesting how the reads and meta-game factors impact one's line in these situations. Against an online V or against an new/anonymous V, you likely would have kept your foot on the gas.

In these rare scenarios, I try to take a deep breath and just play readless very often. But I play 1/3 mostly and it's just way less tough than 2/5 Foxwoods. I tend to agree that you weren't getting a lot more value.

$125 pre. Going to bet/bet/bet here with your image and a clean run out.

Definitely bet more PF. With the image you have, it makes it look like you are 3-betting lightish and are looking for folds, rather than a big pair looking for value. That should deceive players a bit, as well as get that pot building.

If you assume the worst, you got called by the following hands on the flop...

AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, AK
You equity on the flop against this range was 55%. It will be more on the turn as the 8 won't have helped it. So bet there is fine.

What calls you on the turn if you fire again? If the answer is only AA, KK, and TT, then betting makes not sense. If QQ will call, then you're still behind. If JJ will call as well, then I think betting does make sense since you are still getting value from that range. I think cause you're both still so deep that a 1/2 - 2/3 pot will keep a heart draw in the hand. So add AKh and maybe even AQh-Th into the mix as well. The more that the calling on the turn range of hands increases the more you should lean towards betting.

What would you have done if you had bet turn, and then been check-raised? You're deep enough to make it easy to get away from the hand.

I think that fact that you have the image as a bluffer, makes me say bet turn. You're more likely to get called by worse hands, then if you had a very tight/nitty image.

Do you think Villain would be the type to always 4bet AA pre-flop, and only that hand (or KK as well)?

Given your deduction that V was 85% likely to have QQ

How often would an in all in turn bet have to be called to show a higher EV than the line you took?

What bet sizes would V have called on the turn and river? Would that have yielded a higher EV than the line you took?

When you check the turn and lead on the river would V have called a larger bet than $250 (I suspect V would have) and if so how much?


FWIW all things to consider and work out away from the table.

Interesting hand, thanks for posting.

Why would you pot control with these stacks against this kind of player? Against a thinking LAG that knows our range is capped and may put us to the test, well then it would make sense.

Am I missing something here?