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Value bet sizing--2 hands Value bet sizing--2 hands

01-09-2016 , 12:22 AM
H1

Hero has a TAG image.

V is a small winner in the game. For sure has read some poker books. Has a lot of sizing tells.

Table is loose pf, but most hands are not going to showdown. Big value bets are not getting paid off on the late streets.

Average stack around $300. Hero covers.

UTG straddles $5, couple of limpers, hero open limps QJ in MP, 2 more callers behind, SB calls. 7 ways.

(~$35) Flop:A53

V bet $7 from SB, q fishy caller, hero calls, 2 more callers behind. 5way

(~$70) Turn: K

Checks to hero who? What hands are we targeting?

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H2

Same table, but regs. have gone home and have been replaced with fish.

V is a young guy playing loose and limpy, saw him miss an obvious river value bet with TPTK on a fairly dry runout. He's a fish but not horrible, takes times with his decisions and I think capable of some kind of laydown. Saw him bet into 5 players on a mono board on flop, got 1 caller, bet turn, river brought another of his suit and he check/folded without much of a fuss. Is running good. $500

Hero covers

V over limps EMP, hero check JT in SB. 6 way.

Flop: T83

Hero bets $10, V calls, 2 fish call

(~$45)Turn: 6

Hero bets $35, V calls, 1 fish calls.

(~$110) River: T

Hero? Range we are targeting?
Value bet sizing--2 hands Quote
01-09-2016 , 12:54 AM
H1

I'd raise pre btw, but limping can't be bad.

I'd bet 50 now. I'd consider potting it if I thought there were decent flush draws out there (especially AxXd), but since you account for the Qd and Jd, there isn't much else available that looks strong. That said, a decent % of Ax hands have one diamond (let's see, 12 Ax combos for each one pair Ax hand, so 25% of those have one diamond).

You're targeting all Ax hands as well as any straight draws (i.e. 76), pair + straight draws (i.e. 22, 44), combo draws (i.e. 7d6x, 2d2x), pair + flush draws (i.e. AxTd), and flushes.

I bet 50 instead of 70 because it's obvious the flush came in, and I don't want to wield too much fold equity from made hands and weak draws that have incredibly little pot equity.

But generally 50-70 works as we're targeting strong absolute value hands plus draws to strong absolute value hands.

H2

I probably don't bet flop at all. You really don't want to start building a large pot deep oop with TP4K w/out backdoor equity in a limped pot. You don't love see it check through and then a turn Q, K, A, but that's a risk you have to take because building a huge pot is usually bad.

Turn bet seems like an over play. Not sure it's +EV.

I don't value bet the river. Re: trips, you beat T9 (8 combos) and lose to AT, KT, QT (24 combos). I don't think many worse made hands call. You even block a possible weird limped JJ. You also block the J9 OESD. Check/decide imo.

That said, if you must bet, then bet $15-$20.

You're targeting 87 and 98 exactly. That's 24 combos.

I guess if his range is T9+, 98, 87, then sure, $15-$20/fold.

That said, he may well fold the 8x hands even to a small bet. If he does, it's not +EV.
Value bet sizing--2 hands Quote
01-09-2016 , 01:15 AM
H1

I agree with limping QJs, that's a great monster hopeful that wants as many people there as possible when it hits the nuts. 7 ways to the flop?, beautiful.

Post flop you let it go for only 7 bucks? Ugh, I would have min raised that but ok.

Turn, made the flush, someone(s) are drawing for one or made it with a smaller pair of diamonds, perfect, you want the baby flushes, flush draws, made straights and straight draws to hang around, with only a fear of the flush wheel and board pairs.

Since the flop went around for a paltry 7 bucks, anything more than 15ish is going to probably scare of the people who want to stay. You have the odds to let everyone get a 5th card and still have the practical nuts, so bet the amount that keeps everyone in there. Blasting an over PSB will scare off the hands hoping for a river diamond/2/4/board pair. The river will be the place for you to go for someones stack, after they hit their draw that is drawing dead into your nut flush.

H2

You're targeting everybody except the flush. Straights fell short, counterfeited 2P is screwed, 1P is screwed; it worked out beautifully for you. Better trips is an oh well.

I like the bet sizing on this hand more, and we're at a similar point for the river except you don't want someone shove, you want to end this hand with everyone throwing in a pittance that you take down, without a large bet scaring you with thoughts of a fish sucking on a backdoor flush. Make a nice small, polite and consistent bet here, hoping everyone just calls and you win on hand strength alone. Another 35 sounds right to me, anything way less is asking for a bluff to scare you off, anything more is going to cost you too much when you have to fold a the shove and/or scare off hands that you beat. Expect better trips and a flush to be standing behind a good size raise.
Value bet sizing--2 hands Quote
01-09-2016 , 02:09 AM
Pretty sure I screwed up the action on H2. I can't remember if the fish folded OTT, or called and open mucked OTR before I bet. Either way I was only facing the V in question OTR.
Value bet sizing--2 hands Quote
01-09-2016 , 10:58 AM
h1 id either go 70ish or 15ish
h2 check/fold turn
Value bet sizing--2 hands Quote
01-09-2016 , 01:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Willyoman
H2

I probably don't bet flop at all. You really don't want to start building a large pot deep oop with TP4K w/out backdoor equity in a limped pot. You don't love see it check through and then a turn Q, K, A, but that's a risk you have to take because building a huge pot is usually bad.

Turn bet seems like an over play. Not sure it's +EV.

I don't value bet the river. Re: trips, you beat T9 (8 combos) and lose to AT, KT, QT (24 combos). I don't think many worse made hands call. You even block a possible weird limped JJ. You also block the J9 OESD. Check/decide imo.

That said, if you must bet, then bet $15-$20.

You're targeting 87 and 98 exactly. That's 24 combos.

I guess if his range is T9+, 98, 87, then sure, $15-$20/fold.

That said, he may well fold the 8x hands even to a small bet. If he does, it's not +EV.
I miscounted combos for H2.

Re: trips, we lose to AT, KT, QT = 12 combos. We beat T9 = 3 combos.

98 and 87 are 24 combos. And by the way, if it's not obvious why we include those combos - he calls the flopped pair and the turned pair + draw. You said he's loose and limpy, so I'm assuming those hands are possible pre-flop.

Of course, we can also add 77, 99 = 12 more combos.

So sure, we should bet like $20 for value here. Bet/fold. His raising range includes hands like better Tx and backdoor flushes (QsJs, Js9s for example). I like $20 because you said he's not a complete station... he makes lay downs... so we need to bet really small to target these weak hands. Against a real calling station, we could probably make it $50.

Against this guy, maybe we can even eek out $25-$30.

I still think the flop and turn are an overplay.

Once the T hits the river, it significantly blocks better Tx, giving villain a range that gives value.
Value bet sizing--2 hands Quote
01-09-2016 , 01:14 PM
Also 76 is possible, as are a few more worse Tx (but not nearly enough to suggest a larger river bet).
Value bet sizing--2 hands Quote
01-09-2016 , 02:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kookiemonster
H1
Checks to hero who? What hands are we targeting?
Everything. You're targeting worst flushes, two pair, Ax, TdXx, god knows what else. Nuts multiway = bet at least $40.

I'd consider raising pre with QJs in late mp, like the lojack.

Quote:
Originally Posted by kookiemonster
H2

Hero? Range we are targeting?
I would have checked the turn for sure. I know the board is textured, but you have a RIOish hand in the worst position. I fine with the flop bet to get missed broadways and random Ax to fold. I think your position, weakish hand, and multiple opponents mean you should check the turn.

I'd check-call on the river. Not many draws got there. 97 should have raised the turn. The Ts makes the only likely spades hand J9ss or maybe A3ss. I think villains hold a lot of air and may take a stab at it. You beat 5 combos of T9/T7s and lose to 12 combos of QT+. I discount AT somewhat because most villains would have raised on the flop or turn. Maybe 10 combos of QT+. I don't see many worse hands that would call. You can't bet-fold because T9/T7s might raise. You don't want to make the pot bigger and bet-call with a hand that mostly loses to raising hands like QT+. I think check-call makes sense here.
Value bet sizing--2 hands Quote
01-09-2016 , 05:20 PM
H1: half pot

H2: check/fold
Value bet sizing--2 hands Quote

      
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