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Unrealistic Live Win Rates? Unrealistic Live Win Rates?

10-19-2015 , 04:35 PM
I have read countless posts stating that making $15 an hour at 1/2 live is possible and that $30 an hour playing 2/5 is possible.

If on average at a live casino you are dealt about 30 hands per hour, based on my calculations you would need a win rate of 25bb/100 to make $15 an hour playing 1/2 NLHE.

Are my calculations correct? If so...

Is 25bb/100 even realistically possible playing 1/2 live NLHE???

20bb/100 playing 2/5 translates to $30.... Is 20bb/100 possible at 2/5 live? Those win rates sound pretty impossible to me....

Below are some more numbers and stuff...

Playing 1/2

25bb/100 = $15 (at 30 hands per hour)


Playing 2/5

6bb/100 = $9 (at 30 hands per hour)

12bb/100 = $18 (at 30 hands per hour)

20bb/100 = $30 (at 30 hands per hour)
10-19-2015 , 04:38 PM
I know live players are generally bad but if 9bb/100 is crushing online then how is 25bb/100 live possible (sustained over a long period of time)?

Are live players really that much worse?
10-19-2015 , 04:43 PM
This thread will probably get locked or merged with the winrates thread, but I wouldn't bother playing for 6bb/hour. Live poker ain't online poker and almost everyone is terrible. This question has probably been beaten to death in the winrates thread just a few posts below this one.
10-19-2015 , 04:52 PM
in b4 lock
10-19-2015 , 04:56 PM
I can guarantee $15 pr hr @ 1/2 is possible & that 30 hands per hour is not. Not where I play anyways.
10-19-2015 , 05:04 PM
I think 20BB/hr+ is possible in certain deep $1/2 games during the premium hours for a LAG crusher.

I might be dreaming though.
10-19-2015 , 05:07 PM
Live generally plays much deeper. Live players aren't multitalbing or even primarily playing poker, they are drinking, chatting, gambling.

25BB/100 is not only possible it is on the smallish side of winnings for the best players in my experience.
10-19-2015 , 05:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kookiemonster
I think 20BB/hr+ is possible in certain deep $1/2 games during the premium hours for a LAG crusher.

I might be dreaming though.
Maybe, so long as the LAG doesn't run up against a pro. We have a LAG who does rather well. He was sitting at my table once with >2k & that's 1/2.

He usually plays 2/5.

Anyways, a pro from RunitOnce was at his 2/5 table awhile back & owned him. Ran him off with his tail between his legs.
10-19-2015 , 05:16 PM
Unpossible, fishes on unsustainable heaters and there is no such thing as long term in live games.

(I have 2k hours at over $15/hr at 1/2 fwiw, with garphs and everything)

In b4 lock, find the winrates thread bruh.
10-19-2015 , 05:22 PM
I can win 500bb/100 over a 100 hand sample against the worst drunk players on a 70 degree Tuesday night with a full moon. That doesn't mean it's sustainable over the long run... 25bb/100 sounds like wishful thinking in terms of playing professionally. .. especially as you move up.
10-19-2015 , 05:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ZuneIt
I can guarantee $15 pr hr @ 1/2 is possible & that 30 hands per hour is not. Not where I play anyways.
I've counted hands per hour all over the strip in Vegas, and all are above 30 hands/hour. I calculate my hands per month using a conservative 32/hr. By my counting, the actual average is 34, but that seems so high I have never been able to bring myself to use it, lol.

I sympathize with you; when we fall below 30/hr because someone is playing no fold em hold em, it's like watching paint dry.
10-19-2015 , 05:49 PM
in live people will call off 50 bb just to fold the river, and they will call off 50bb if they dont like you,
10-19-2015 , 05:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AlmostGood
I can win 500bb/100 over a 100 hand sample against the worst drunk players on a 70 degree Tuesday night with a full moon. That doesn't mean it's sustainable over the long run... 25bb/100 sounds like wishful thinking in terms of playing professionally. .. especially as you move up.
Ask the guys who cliams this as a win rate,15/hr doesnt sound that crazy to me and considering how many vegas pros i see at 1-2nlh their WR is probably around here , 15/hr is probably the high end but 9-15/hr seems reasonable
10-19-2015 , 05:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mpethybridge
I sympathize with you; when we fall below 30/hr because someone is playing no fold em hold em, it's like watching paint dry.
My guess is that better games get lower hands/hr due to fewer raiseandtakeit's and lots of hands going multiway to the later streets.

Gno?G
10-19-2015 , 06:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Drrr.Gonzo
in live people will call off 50 bb just to fold the river, and they will call off 50bb if they dont like you,
Lol Unrealistic Live Win Rates?. You got a point there.
10-19-2015 , 06:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ZuneIt
Maybe, so long as the LAG doesn't run up against a pro. We have a LAG who does rather well. He was sitting at my table once with >2k & that's 1/2.

He usually plays 2/5.

Anyways, a pro from RunitOnce was at his 2/5 table awhile back & owned him. Ran him off with his tail between his legs.
there was a Hagrid(harry potter) looking italian guy at venetian who had $3500 in front of him at 1-2NLH he played 24 hours+ straight i remember the 7 racks he had, i had to switch seats so i could see the flop, as i was headed home I saw he was down to 2 racks lolololol how can you have a 7k swing in 2days at 1-2NLH
10-19-2015 , 06:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Drrr.Gonzo
there was a Hagrid(harry potter) looking italian guy at venetian who had $3500 in front of him at 1-2NLH he played 24 hours+ straight i remember the 7 racks he had, i had to switch seats so i could see the flop, as i was headed home I saw he was down to 2 racks lolololol how can you have a 7k swing in 2days at 1-2NLH
Saw a TAG cash out $3600 in 6hrs in a $1/2 $500max game.

Cashed out $2500+ a few times myself in <8hrs playing TAG, and I'm terrible.

All about game selection.
10-19-2015 , 06:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AlmostGood
I can win 500bb/100 over a 100 hand sample against the worst drunk players on a 70 degree Tuesday night with a full moon. That doesn't mean it's sustainable over the long run... 25bb/100 sounds like wishful thinking in terms of playing professionally. .. especially as you move up.
Why in the world would you want to talk about live WR in terms of bb/100? Live games don't get logged in PT.
10-19-2015 , 06:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ZuneIt
Maybe, so long as the LAG doesn't run up against a pro. We have a LAG who does rather well. He was sitting at my table once with >2k & that's 1/2.

He usually plays 2/5.

Anyways, a pro from RunitOnce was at his 2/5 table awhile back & owned him. Ran him off with his tail between his legs.
Crushers are LAGs. Most pros are LAGs.
10-19-2015 , 06:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mpethybridge
I've counted hands per hour all over the strip in Vegas, and all are above 30 hands/hour. I calculate my hands per month using a conservative 32/hr. By my counting, the actual average is 34, but that seems so high I have never been able to bring myself to use it, lol.

I sympathize with you; when we fall below 30/hr because someone is playing no fold em hold em, it's like watching paint dry.
One old guy in my game logs every hand. 25-28 h/hr here.
10-19-2015 , 06:47 PM
I'm at 20+/hr in 1/2 at around 400 hrs tracked. Idk about the math on it. When I see win rates that much higher than online I point toward bad play, good table selection and straddles.
10-19-2015 , 07:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kookiemonster
Crushers are LAGs. Most pros are LAGs.
Crushers aren't LAGs. They aren't TAGs. They are great at adjusting to what the table gives them. They understand how others play and they exploit their weaknesses, which all styles have weaknesses
10-19-2015 , 07:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnny_on_the_spot
Crushers aren't LAGs. They aren't TAGs. They are great at adjusting to what the table gives them. They understand how others play and they exploit their weaknesses, which all styles have weaknesses
Very well put
10-19-2015 , 07:24 PM
Take what the defense gives you.
10-19-2015 , 07:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnny_on_the_spot
Crushers aren't LAGs. They aren't TAGs. They are great at adjusting to what the table gives them. They understand how others play and they exploit their weaknesses, which all styles have weaknesses
+1
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