Waiting for a seat in an Omaha game to open up. I've literally played less than 200 live nl hands the past decade, what range do we put villain on here. And how do we proceed on the turn?

1/3, villain, middle age Indian/Pakistani guy, regular in the room, been at the table for roughly 30 mins, tight and has been involved in almost no hands so far open raises in the hijack for $20 (standard open has been $15-$20}. Has roughly $350.

Really bad older lady calls in the cutoff, showing down very light and already stuck a few buyins in a short period of time. Has roughly $250.

I call on the button with JTo, no clubs. I cover both.

Both blinds fold.

Flop Kc9c4h. Villain checks, lady checks, I bet $30. Both call. Turn 8s, villain leads $65, lady folds.

Is this a common line from a typical 1/3 regular? Initial gut reaction is a middling K that didn't want to build a big pot by c betting the flop. Possibly 98, 88? Villain had right around 240-250 after the bet.

In LLSNL I find it better to stop worrying about the mistakes your villains are making and start thinking about your own. You have a runner-runner straight draw where some of your outs aren't clean. Making a small cbet in a MW pot under these circumstances (a tight player raised pf and the other villain calls down extremely light) is just burning money.

The HJ could likely have KK, too. It doesn't really matter because he isn't bluffing often enough to make the call worthwhile. Fold now.

c/c flop, lead turn is a very common LLSNL line for sets, though less common on boards with a FD.

A tight player open raises to 20 in LP, honestly JTo might be a fold because we're going to be best handed a lot when Vs actually continue. I'd rather play a low SC here.

1/3 you can literally sit and wait for hands. People don't realize you've played 1 hand in 3 hours

Fold pre,
I don't mind the stab otf once the pfr checks
AP ott you need 65/(215+65) so you need about 23% equity
You have 6-8 outs dependent on club outs
if we take out the club outs your direct odds are 12% or 1:7.
If we consider implied odds
To call 65, we need to win 455 for the call to breakeven
Pot is 215, so we need to win at LEAST $240 further from V

V has only 240back otr, so only if you win his whole stack everytime otr when you hit, your turn call is breakeven at best, never +EV

I doubt this is true, so fold turn now

Why would they be mutually exclusive? A mistake is a mistake, and learning from others mistakes is much cheaper than learning from our own. Additionally, if you can't put him on a range besides possible KK, how do we even know what a mistake is?

This phrase is overused so much, and no it literally cannot be burning money to bet in this spot. 3 pure outs to the nuts, a spot where villain cannot c bet with air very often, a board that hits my preflop overcalling range in this spot quite well which affords me the ability to bluff with some frequency, and we can represent the flush on turns and rivers.

Villain "could" have the current nuts seems very lazy. He could have KK, could have checked the flop with AQ/AJ/AT/88/77/66/55/QJ/JT. Additionally, if he does have KK, it seems like when stacks get in on the turn or river it's likely that we will be favorites.

Ok, thanks. Are you implying this line is generally quite strong from a regular? If this line gets a lot of respect, seems like a good line to bluff relatively cheaply.

Again, respectively, I have played very little NL cash and just using time on waiting lists to improve more all around in case I find myself in an NL tourney, a juicy NL game is running or NL pops up in a mixed game. The hardest part so far is just understanding the ranges people are playing, and not necessarily how to respond if we know the ranges.

I figured there would be some saying to fold preflop. That seems fine, and I definitely gave it consideration. On the other hand, no matter what form of poker, playing pots with bad players involved is generally a good strategy. Just because a tighter player opens, it doesn't negate that there is a bad player in the pot as well. The better player has bad relative position. Additionally, in the current setup, there was close to a 0% chance the blinds were going to squeeze without a legitimate hand.

I understand nut peddling is a profitable strategy at 1/3, however, working on playing higher games than 1/3 with actual thinking players probably requires you to expand beyond playing 1 hand in 3 hours.

Thanks, this was roughly where I was at mentally during the hand. I didn't feel like I had enough folding equity to shove the turn and the stacks felt a bit too deep as well. Then I didn't feel like there was enough implied odds to justify a call. So I folded the turn.

You're talking about the bad player completely forgetting about the tight player who is going to be the one who beats us more often.

And if you're trying to play higher than 1/3, what do you think happens when good players are in the blinds?

Saying this "might" be a fold pre is too soft. Vpipping JTo is a torch here and I would mark you as a fish if I saw you do this. You implied you're an online player, but I have a hard time believing you can get away with this in any online NL game.

This is a large open sizing which is a tell of strength. Villain likely has the top end of a HJ opening range here. I would range him on something like top 7% of hands or so. Not much of that range is check/folding to one bet so I just take a free card. His line overall is stereotypically strong for these stakes so I'm not bluffing him on the turn.

How does this flop hit your cold calling range? The only value hands you can really have here besides Kx is 99 and 33. If you have JTo in your range this flop definitely favors the PFR.

Turn is a call getting 3:1 direct with 6 outs to the nuts (and the flush outs are probably not dirty). We only need to stack him like 50% of the times we hit, which is very reasonable to expect to do IP.

I never said online NL, I have played very little NL cash in my lifetime. Not that much NL tournies either.

I was at the table for roughly 3 hours and almost every open raise was 15-20 like I mentioned in the OP. This open didn't feel any different. If you're telling me a reg is only opening 7% out of the hijack then, I certainly agree JTo is an easy fold. I just assume people are opening reasonably wider than that. Regardless, I'm not making the argument that JT is a snap call here and I would've folded it in almost every other circumstance unless the bad lady didn't cold called directly to my right and there was almost no chance of a squeeze out of the blinds.


KQ/KJ/KTs/K9s/99/44 makes up a pretty solid amount of legitimate value, that affords us the ability to have some bluffs? I agree that the flush outs aren't dirty often, however, they will shut down a lot of value when they hit.

You're conflating tight with good, currently, the only thing we know is he's played a pot or two in 30 mins that didn't go past preflop or the flop. I'm pretty certain whatever value you think we are losing to him, we are making up for it and then some against the lady.

Just because there are games where the blinds will squeeze frequently, doesn't mean in the current game with blinds that would never squeeze light you should fold. That's silly.

How did you get the 50% figure browni, I did the implied calc above and we need to stack him everytime we hit

Fold pre, AP I fold turn.

Fold pre is pretty trivial.

Bluffing is successful in LLSNL less than in any other form of poker. It can be done, but one really has to pick their spots and their Vs. Without a strong read that a V can fold TP, don't try it even when you have a range advantage on a scary board.

I fold preflop. We're going to have to be monstrously better than both players to show a profit here, imo, and it sounds like raiser might not be a moron.

I guess I understand our bet when checked to here, and I'm sure we're surprised both called, but at this point likely what is happening is the good guy is simply trying not to bloat the pot and get to showdown with a showdownable hand and meanwhile the lady is coming along because she's a fish and that's what she does. So we're in this super weird spot where against the good guy we should be bluffing but against the fish we should only be value betting. Good luck with that, imo.

A check/call and then donk into two opponents line is weird but it's also kinda strong, imo (especially when you consider the fish is still in the hand). ETA: Didn't realize we picked up an OESD on the turn; next time post pot size on each street, but if math is okish I likely call here (hopefully getting paid off on the disguised runner runner straight and otherwise repping the flush if it comes in).

Gstoptryingtooutplayeverybody,imoG

The rough answer is that an 8 out draw requires 5:1 direct, we are getting 3:1 so we need to win another 2*65 = 130 on the river on average, about half of his remaining stack. I am not considering any of our outs dirty, though. If you think we won't get action on spades then we actually have more bluff outs.

A more precise answer:

EV = 8/46*(215+250*f)-38/46*65 >= 0
f >= (38*65/8-215)/250
f >= 37.5%

Actually significantly less than my rough estimate of 50%.

BTW, it's a huge mistake to only count 6 direct outs, because even if we have low implied odds on a spade river (and even lose sometimes) we are +EV and ignoring those outs assumes they are 0 EV.