Underful facing river min 3 bet
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 1,467
2/5 deep, I have 2700, Villain covers.
PF, F and T were totally standard. 4 ways to the flop with a pfr of 20. Checked through on the flop, I bet 3/4 pot on the turn as last to act and villain called from EP, everyone else folded.
I have 99sc on a board of 9hJdJc6h4d
Villain is an middle aged, asian, loose passive fish. Not totally clueless, but plays way too many hands, has superstitions about certain hands being lucky, loves to slowplay and "trap" with really strong hands, usually donks off a few buyins and leaves, but when he's hitting he murders the table. This is one of those days. His PF range is pretty much anything sooted or connected +, he probably sees 70% of flops or more.
On the river he donk bets 50 into a pot of 200, I make it 200, he immediately clicks it back to me at 375.
He's totally capable of overvaluing hands like AJ, KJ and QJ here, and also could easily have J4 and J6 sooted or even JJ here. Obviously I'm never folding. Can I justify raising? If so how much?
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 1,115
Just call bud. Guessing he had 66 tho
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 928
Definitely calling river for what's essentially a min-click. V will show up with bigger boats, but he also has a lot of Jx combos and can have all 66 combos with the flop checking through. With all the draws bricking out, I've seen Vs overvalue hands as weak as QJ in spots like these. If V makes it something like $600-$700 then you're in a tough spot, but for this price it's a shrug and a call.
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 7,563
Is the question whether to call or raise?
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 1,467
Join Date: Jan 2015
Posts: 5,628
I’d be pretty comfortable just calling given action unless your V is the type to get in 2400 more w worse. The bad news there is that the same player willing to do so also has those few Jx boats in range pre. You therefore don’t have the eff nuts that you’d normally have w the 99sc
Confirmed 2500 hour haver
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 12,248
Why did you give preflop detail without giving preflop detail? Who raised? Where was villain?
Checking back 99 on 9JJ 4 ways is also not standard. It’s fine, but so is betting.
What were his actions like on flop and turn (was he quick, disinterested, etc).
Join Date: Jul 2018
Posts: 666
I wish we had bet the flop - it helps to tell us a lot more about their range. Jx isn't folding and we want to start building a pot so we're not left wondering on the river if we can 4-bet.
AP, I like to 4-bet to $900 and expect to be called by Jx and 66 (which V could easily see as the nuts considering earlier action).
I think just calling here loses a lot of value to his most likely holding (trips).
Fold to a jam though, since V is apparently not totally clueless.
I'm left really wishing we had bet the flop.
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 1,467
PF was EP raised to 20, I considered 3 betting to 65-70, and I usually would in this situation, but the early position raiser had only 200 in his stack so if he shoves I have to call and I'm usually in bad shape to that player's bet shove/range with 99. Both blinds called, villain was the SB.
Looking back I wish I bet the flop too, and I usually do with my big hands, this just happened ot be one of the times I mix in a check.
Confirmed 2500 hour haver
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 12,248
What is his 3b%. How often does he flat JJ in the sb here would you guess.
Also, would he understand that a raise from you here would be massively strong? Or would he just happily re-jam 66 here for example?
You are definitely raising fwiw. I’m trying to understand how much it is going to suck to have to raise/fold.
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 1,467
I don't have enough hands with him to give a read on that.
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 7,563
He should have 66 here a ton. Sometimes 44 as well.
I would put in another raise. I don’t know what the proper size is but my first instinct says $750.
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 1,467
Thanks for the feedback. I knew I should have raised. Calling just felt wrong. He turned over QJo and looked shocked that he lost. I definitely think he's calling 8-900 there. Oh well.