1/3

V: Shows more aggression than most with strong hands, don't love him on my left, but probably a breakeven or slightly losing player. $340

Hero: Sitting on a lot of chips but V just got here. We've played together before, I don't know how much he sees and remembers, hence the slightly losing tag I gave him. Covers

1 EP limp, Hero raises to $15 with 99, V calls and two others call.

Flop ($62 after rake) 9 7 4 rainbow

Hero leads $35, V calls, two others fold.

So my sizing to get ai otr is $80 into $132 ott and $210 into $292 otr. It looks small ott to most probably, but this game doesn't see a lot of $100 bets before the river. If I went like $115 ott, I'm only getting coolered sets to come along. I need to get TT/JJ to come along.

Turn ($132) 9 7 4 | 2 rainbow

Hero bets $65, V calls.

I know, I didn't even bet $80, seriously though, that scares TT into a fold a lot of the time, and yes, since strong double barrels are getting the weaker overpairs to fold in this game I am double barreling to get strong 1-pair hands to fold in the right situations. At this point I just though V was too deep to get ai with 1 pair so I went with something I expected to get called each time.

River ($262) 9 7 4 | 2 | 4

By now I was actually thinking 86 might be a more likely hand than TT/JJ. TT/JJ are raising the flop, even though it was still 4-way at the time, some percent of the time. 86 is never raising the flop. The thing is, 86 is never bluffing if I check otr. 86 would check behind and muck. This situation comes up often enough (being really strong otr oop and deep and feeling as though your V isn't strong enough to execute a successful prison rape) and I was thinking about putting a blocking bet out there. Does anyone else see any merit in leading for about $25? With 86, i.e., V will feel pretty stupid not having a hand that can call just $25 and his ego will get in the way of a fold and he might spazz shove. Or forget the ego, V might just level himself into thinking I have AK and it's a real blocking bet and he'll spazz shove.

Hero ...

Nope, no $25 bet because you are just getting no spazz shover over 25$.

Bet if you think he will level himelf into a call with 7.
check shove if you think he bets air or over pair, always.

I don't know, given the sizing on flop & turn and V's description, I'd expect him to have some mid pps, 9x, and 7x in his range too. I'd rather try to get value from those hands than hope he'll spazz shove with 86/65.

$45/90/shove. If they all fold then it's whatever...betting to induce a river raise is just FPS and will almost never work.

I think you'd be surprised how often a regular bet gets called here. With a paired board, people often turtle up and just call down.

You should probably find a better game if people are folding TT to two bets here IMO.

As played, I could maybe check the river if there was a flush draw OTF... but there wasn't. I also don't know why you would think that he won't bluff if you check, but will if you bet small. I would just bet river.

Wait a second... This doesn't compute:

"I know, I didn't even bet $80, seriously though, that scares TT into a fold a lot of the time, and yes, since strong double barrels are getting the weaker overpairs to fold in this game"

and...

"TT/JJ are raising the flop"

if he called the turn bet I am betting about 120 or so on the river (or as high as you think he'd call). 86 he would probably have raised the flop. there are a bunch more hands such as 9x and overpairs and he could have also boated up on the river too. I don't think I would let him call the small $25 bet, with a paired board he might think you are just trying to induce.

Just follow your plan...You will be surprised how many players will level themselves into a call OTR on a low board like this because "you could have AK".

Probably would have raised 86 OTF? I would say that less than 5% of the player pool I play against would raise with 86 OTF in that spot...

I agree with this. Most 2/5 players I play live aren't imaginative enough to semi-bluff here. But I'd bump the percentage to about 15.

Why did you abandon your plan on the turn?

If he's checking back 86 every time, he's probably checking back TT and A9 too. You absolutely need to bet here. Given the rainbow flop and total brick turn, 77 is probably in his range here, especially if he considers you aggro. Id prefer an 80-90 turn bet to set it up, but am still shoving here.

A player who shows aggression would raise an OESD on the flop.

Bet for pure value.. Are we ever giving up with our whiffed over cards? On paired board people jus call down mid pps and some 7S too.. Am never levelling and am jus going for pure value

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We went 4ways to the flop with 99, which pretty much means we're setmining. If we were planning to setmine (i.e. did we expect >3 way action?), then I would have overlimped preflop.

Even though the board is bone dry, we're still 4way so let's just hope someone feels in the mood to peel one off. Also, betting the flop just sets things up so that we can play for stacks. My plan would be to like 2/3 PSB each street in order to play for easy stacks by the river. Looks like we have the ~same plan, so nice.

Stick with the plan on the turn, imo. If you hadda bet what you were intending, it sets up a trivially easy river shove.

Even though we haven't set things up great thanks to underbetting the turn, the fact is that we still have < PSB on the river, so there's still time to salvage things. The river card is terrific (if Villain thinks he was ahead on the turn, then he is still going to think that on the river). Save the hand and shove the river, imo.

ETA: Attempting to induce spazz shoves is generally a very poor idea at this level, imo, unless against really specific opponents (and nothing in read suggests this is that kinda guy).

Gourpostflopplanwasagoodone,therewasnoreasonnottos tickwithitG

Thanks, I'll drive 3 hours to the next nearest casino.

You conveniently cut off TT/JJ are raising the flop some of the time.

86 is never raising the flop, I said he's aggressive with strong hands, not draws that will be strong if they hit. I was thinking 9x, it's the case 9 though, how many 9x are possible? And there just aren't many boat combos: 74/42? If it were easier for him to have something I would just shove and not even make a thread. But no flush, no straight, unlikely ways for him to have a boat without a set, etc. QQ+ is strong pf, he'd be 3-betting, so TT some of the time, and JJ most of the time call my river shove, I was having trouble coming up with hands that could call ai. That's why I considered betting in the $75 range again, or making a blocking bet.