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Live Low-stakes NL Discussion of up to 3/5 live no-limit, pot-limit and spread-limit Texas Hold'em poker games, situations and strategies.

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Old Today, 05:27 PM   #26
ChaosInEquilibrium
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Join Date: Aug 2019
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Re: Ugh turn play in 2/5

We're almost always ahead on this flop. Like, if you run 4 loose live ranges (45% of hands minus the obvious 3bets JJ-AA), and PFRs tighter open range (and take away the obvious live cbets like 9x,TT-KK, but give him flop traps like AA/99), we're still ahead 75% of the time on this flop assuming no cards to come.



However, if we look at our equity to the river it's just 35% against the same ranges.



Bet flop for protection (in position!) is like the most obvious play in the book, here.
Clean up our immense equity advantage and make players pay to draw to beat us, obviously.

Last edited by ChaosInEquilibrium; Today at 05:36 PM.
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Old Today, 06:45 PM   #27
OmahaDonk
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Re: Ugh turn play in 2/5

Turn I would check but if I were to bet it would be for a lot more than 15% pot which will keep everyone in and induce spazzes
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Old Today, 06:59 PM   #28
drowski
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Re: Ugh turn play in 2/5

Quote:
Originally Posted by ChaosInEquilibrium View Post
Bet flop for protection (in position!) is like the most obvious play in the book, here.
Clean up our immense equity advantage and make players pay to draw to beat us, obviously.
Except you can only make them pay for one street since almost all turns suck. So unless you want to bet 2x pot (sarcasm) you aren't going to be able to charge them an incorrect price to draw especially since it will likely stay multiway
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Old Today, 07:18 PM   #29
crsseyed
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Join Date: Feb 2006
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Re: Ugh turn play in 2/5

Quote:
Originally Posted by ChaosInEquilibrium View Post
We're almost always ahead on this flop. Like, if you run 4 loose live ranges (45% of hands minus the obvious 3bets JJ-AA), and PFRs tighter open range (and take away the obvious live cbets like 9x,TT-KK, but give him flop traps like AA/99), we're still ahead 75% of the time on this flop assuming no cards to come.



However, if we look at our equity to the river it's just 35% against the same ranges.



Bet flop for protection (in position!) is like the most obvious play in the book, here.
Clean up our immense equity advantage and make players pay to draw to beat us, obviously.
This is very helpful/thanks
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Old Today, 07:23 PM   #30
crsseyed
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Re: Ugh turn play in 2/5

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Originally Posted by OmahaDonk View Post
Turn I would check but if I were to bet it would be for a lot more than 15% pot which will keep everyone in and induce spazzes
If we have ~28% equity (9 flush outs 5 2pair/trips outs) on turn 5 handed don't we want to keep everyone in and/or induce spazzes? That was part of my mindset......
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Old Today, 07:45 PM   #31
crsseyed
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Re: Ugh turn play in 2/5

My main reason for posting this hand was for comments on turn. And I welcome comments on flop play...

But wonder if flop bet criticisms are based on being results oriented. If after my flop bet there were 1-2 callers (3 handed or heads up) instead of 4 callers would people still be saying "don't bet this flop"? IMO this would be a more likely scenario after my flop bet after preflop raiser checked flop. Agreed?
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Old Today, 07:50 PM   #32
drowski
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Re: Ugh turn play in 2/5

Quote:
Originally Posted by crsseyed View Post
My main reason for posting this hand was for comments on turn. And I welcome comments on flop play...

But wonder if flop bet criticisms are based on being results oriented. If after my flop bet there were 1-2 callers (3 handed or heads up) instead of 4 callers would people still be saying "don't bet this flop"? IMO this would be a more likely scenario after my flop bet after preflop raiser checked flop. Agreed?
Not for me. I play for a living and no question I would check flop all day because I wouldn't have a plan for the rest of the hand. It's obvious there are no good runouts. I'm not some sicko that can navigate the spots this puts us in. Staying out of **** spots is part of being good at poker

Even if it's guaranteed to get hu or 3 ways everything sucks on the turn
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