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Old 03-27-2017, 06:55 PM   #1
Join Date: Sep 2009
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Typical Situation


450 effective

We raise to 15 utg with JJ. 4 callers.

Flop ($75)


We lead out $60. 2 fish call.

turn ($255) --> We have $375 left


What do we do here? If we make a big bet, are we able to fold if a spade hits? My read is that against these players, no. I'll be committed if I bet $185 ott. This is a big problem right? We are giving villain great implied odds. I never shove in this spot, but maybe I should? So the question is,If we are committed by making a bet on a wet board where draws are in their range, is it pretty much always better to shove ?
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Old 03-27-2017, 07:11 PM   #2
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Re: Typical Situation

I kind of like over-betting the pot in a spot like this & shoving turn. Something like 85, then if you get two calls you have an easy shove on the turn, 350 into 330.
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Old 03-27-2017, 07:48 PM   #3
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Re: Typical Situation

We can't be mubsy about draws coming In all of the time.... We have top set, I would go 175 on the turn, then shove the last 200 on the river. Even if the 9spades falls and the world got there, we are never folding, not with the spr the way it is.....
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Old 03-27-2017, 10:15 PM   #4
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Re: Typical Situation

If you bet 185 on the turn and are going to put the rest in on a spade river, villain calls 185 to win 255 + 375 + 185 = 815. 185/815 = 22.7%. Against a pure flush draw like A3ss, villain only wins 15.9% of the time. So villain will lose money on a call. Against a combo draw like A9ss, villain breaks even on the call, and with KQss they make money. But it's not a "big problem" any way you slice it.

Since there's not a lot of value to be had betting smaller, I'm inclined to shove both to price out the better draws (A9ss etc) and to protect my semibluffing range. If I have AKss or something here myself it would be nice if I could shove it and know that I could also have strong hands.
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Old 03-28-2017, 06:26 AM   #5
adam levine
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Re: Typical Situation

What kind of fish?... are they the overly cally type who go with any draw?Are they the aggressive type who will bet if checked too? I kind of think that a turn shove would be sexy, Villian and heroes image dependent of course. With my image, I could shove and get two callers a decent amount of the time.
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Old 03-28-2017, 06:35 AM   #6
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Re: Typical Situation

Dependingon the fish that call preflop on this flop i like an PSB or overbet if they are calling 60 they are most likely calling 70-80
This makes the turn a lot easier to play as the SPR is going to be a lot better for you

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Old 03-28-2017, 07:57 AM   #7
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Typical Situation

I like overbetting the flop in spots like this when I have a set or vulnerable straight on very wet boards in family pots OOP. For example with JJ, TT, 77, or 89 here I would bet $100. There's tons of draws and worse pairs that will call. Then you can shove turn or bet smaller if you make a boat.

You could also consider a check raise if your opponents are agrofish, but that's obviously much riskier and you need to be very sure someone will stab at it, preferably the player on your immediate left.
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