Hand 1:
I've been very active at the table because I'm raising suited one gappers and suited two gappers because the table is fairly deep.
Hero (BB) ~650
Villain (UTG+1) ~270
one limper. Villain raises to 17. One call in LP. I call from the BB with AdTc. UTG limper folds.
Info:
The villain has been on a hand heater. He's been seeing the top of his range almost every orbit. I saw him show down a 5 high flush from the button. He's positionally aware and a thinking player. He has not gotten out of line from EP. Post-flop the villain has gotten out of line. After a few orbits of watching his game, I called him down with bottom pair on a low board, from the button, after he check-shoved the turn with AK, having no pair and no draw. I was getting 3.5:1 on a call. Villain also showed earlier that he was capable of double barreling AQo with no pair and no draw on low boards.
Flop Pot:
17+17+17+1+2=54
Ah Th Kc
I lead the flop for 51. Villain calls. LP caller folds.
Turn Pot:
51+51+54=156
7h
I lead the turn for 120. Villain shoves for 200.
Pot: 120+200+156= 476
Hero must call 80.
If we assume Villain is never bluffing this is the stove range that I get:
Board: Ah Th Kc 7h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0:
04.545% 04.55% 00.00% 24 0.00 { AdTc }
Hand 1:
95.455% 95.45% 00.00% 504 0.00 { AcAs, KdKh, KdKs, KhKs, TdTs, AcKc, AsKs, KhQh, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AsKd, AsKh }
If villain is semi-bluffing too:
Board: Ah Th Kc 7h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.058% 33.06% 00.00% 320 0.00 { AdTc }
Hand 1: 66.942% 66.94% 00.00% 648 0.00 { AcAs, KdKh, KdKs, KhKs, QcQh, QdQh, QhQs, TdTs, AcKc, AsKs, KhQh, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AsKd, AsKh, AcQh, AhQs, AsQh, KcQh, KdQh, KhQc, KhQd, KhQs, KsQh }
How often do we think that Villain can be semi-bluffing versus having a value hand? Can hero call?
My thoughts:
I really feel like I should just check fold the turn, but before the hand I LITERALLY TOLD MYSELF that I was folding unless I hit two pair. I also told myself that I was felting if I hit two pair on the flop. What kind of range should continue on the turn if we decide that we are check folding two pair on the turn? What kinds of hands are we looking for preflop that we don't get soul-owned that flat preflop? I ask this question specifically because 3-betting this player is useless when he is in EP because he is likely to 4-bet jam. He is also about 135bb deep.
Hand 2:
This hand takes place at another table. After Hand 1 the Villain moved to a 2/5 table where he spent the rest of the day playing. The table is deep, and I have a huge fish to my left. There is another fish that I valued towned for 3 streets with TPTK. My image is horrible to the table because I've been raising suited two gappers and suited one gappers since all the fish are deep.
Hero is in the (CO) with TcTs ~521
Villain 1 (Btn) ~470
Villain 2 (sb) ~230
One limper in Hijack. Hero raises to 7. Villain 1 calls. Villain 2 calls. Hijack calls. BB calls.
Flop Pot:
7*5=35
Ac 8c 6d
Sb and BB. Hijack also checks. Hero bets 30. Button and SB. Call.
Turn Pot:
35+30+30+30= 125
7c
SB checks. Hero Bets 60. Button Calls. SB moves in for 192. Hero must call 132. The button has not acted yet. What do you do?
Pot so far: 125+60+60+192 = 437
My thoughts:
The SB and the button never have JJ+ of any combinations because they have shown that they will 3-bet those hands preflop. The sb and the button also never have an AK, AQ, AJ with the club hand because the sb would have raised the flop, and the button would have 3-bet those hands preflop and raised the flop. The button can never have TT or 99 because he snap 3-bets those preflop. These are the ranges that I pokerstoved for both of them versus my hand:
Board: Ac 8c 6d 7c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 29.158% 28.86% 00.29% 93152 948.00 { TcTs }
Hand 1: 49.468% 48.55% 00.91% 156696 2949.50 { 9c9d, 9c9h, 9c9s, 8d8h, 8d8s, 8h8s, 7d7h, 7d7s, 7h7s, 6c6h, 6c6s, 6h6s, KcQc, QcJc, 9c6c, 8d7d, 8h7h, 8s7s, 8d6d, 8h6h, 8s6s, 7d6d, 7h6h, 7s6s, 7d5d, 7h5h, 7s5s, 6c5c, 6c3c, 5c4c, 5c3c, 5c2c, 4c3c, 4c2c, 8d7h, 8d7s, 8h7d, 8h7s, 8s7d, 8s7h, 8d6h, 8d6s, 8h6d, 8h6s, 8s6d, 8s6h, 7d6c, 7d6h, 7d6s, 7h6c, 7h6d, 7h6s, 7s6c, 7s6d, 7s6h, 54o }
Hand 2: 21.375% 20.17% 01.21% 65085 3897.50 { 8d8h, 8d8s, 8h8s, 7d7h, 7d7s, 7h7s, 6d6h, 6d6s, 6h6s, Kd8d, Kh8h, Ks8s, Qd8d, Qh8h, Qs8s, Jd8d, Jh8h, Js8s, Td9d, Th9h, Ts9s, Td8d, Th8h, Ts8s, Td7d, Th7h, Ts7s, 9d8d, 9h8h, 9s8s, 9d7d, 9h7h, 9s7s, 9d6d, 9h6h, 9s6s, 8d7d, 8h7h, 8s7s, 8d6d, 8h6h, 8s6s, 8d5d, 8h5h, 8s5s, 7d6d, 7h6h, 7s6s, 7d5d, 7h5h, 7s5s, 7d4d, 7h4h, 7s4s, 6c5c, 6c4c, 6s4s, 6c3c, 5c4c, 5c3c, 5c2c, 4c3c, 4c2c, 3c2c, Jc8d, Jc8h, Jc8s, Jd8h, Jd8s, Jh8d, Jh8s, Js8d, Js8h, Td9c, Td9h, Td9s, Th9c, Th9d, Th9s, Ts9c, Ts9d, Ts9h, Tc8d, Tc8h, Tc8s, Td8h, Td8s, Th8d, Th8s, Ts8d, Ts8h, 9c8d, 9c8h, 9c8s, 9d8h, 9d8s, 9h8d, 9h8s, 9s8d, 9s8h, 9c7d, 9c7h, 9c7s, 9d7h, 9d7s, 9h7d, 9h7s, 9s7d, 9s7h, 96o, 87o, 8d6c, 8d6h, 8d6s, 8h6c, 8h6d, 8h6s, 8s6c, 8s6d, 8s6h, 7d6c, 7d6h, 7d6s, 7h6c, 7h6d, 7h6s, 7s6c, 7s6d, 7s6h, 7d5c, 7d5h, 7d5s, 7h5c, 7h5d, 7h5s, 7s5c, 7s5d, 7s5h, 65o, 54o }
The button has tons of 8 and 6 combinations in his hand. He also has some small flush combinations in his hand. Hero has 29% equity after the SB check/jams and the button has not acted yet. Should hero flat or move all-in to push out the button's equity share? With the range that I have given the button I have him calling 59% of the time and folding 41% of the time giving up the $60 that he called on the turn. The button really never believes that I have a hand, but the action in front of him should generally have him folding his range. The button even sighed when the SB moved in.
Re-evaluating the ranges to where he calls the turn. I have 27%. The sb has 43% and the button has %30 roughly.
When I think about the range that I normally have in this spot. My entire range including semi-bluffing is about 29% equity. I'm not really sure, but I feel like I should not be betting the turn even when my hands have a lot of equity to make sure that I don't value town myself with my semi-bluffing hands because I don't come close to %50 equity with my range of hands. The problem that I'm having is that I'll have close to 40% equity with my range of hands if I can push the button out of the hand.