2/3 at my local casino

Main Villain- Usually plays pretty snug when I've played with him in the past. Likes to bet out his hands strong when he has something he believes is good. This session he must have been on tilt because his range had opened up quite a bit. Earlier in the session he raised with 7 4 suited to 10 and called a 4x reraise from me when I was holding AA. We were only 100BB deep. Guessing he is not playing optimally at this moment

OTTH

UTG+1 limps
Main Villian (Covers)- limps
Hero (300)- Raises to 20 with A Q in the CO. Only the two limpers call and we are 3 ways to the flop

Flop: 9 8 6

UTG+1 checks
Main Villain fires for 60

Hero?

This villain definitely has what he perceives to be a strong hand here. He could have two pair, pair plus straight draw, combo draw, etc. If I just call here he's definitely going all in on the turn just based on his play style. Also UTG+1 looks disinterested in the hand so I'm really only worried about main villain.

I'm kind of confused here, do I call, jam, or maybe even fold? Seems like a weird spot, thanks for your input in advance!

Marginal spot. Depending on rake and how heavily he's weighted towards sets, we're around neutral EV here to play for stacks. It's not that easy, because clubs might kill the action on the turn, so it'll be hard to realize our equity.

It might have been better if UTG+1 was willing to come along, but if he's disinterested, I don't mind a fold here. Realistically though, I probably just call, even though it feels like playing fit or fold.

Jam.

^^^This

You have 50% equity against a pair right now seeing two cards. He doesn't likely have QQ+ because he would have raised. A set wouldn't have tried to get you to fold much of the time. You'll have some fold equity since he has a capped range. It isn't a huge +EV event but it is positive.

Calling in spots like this is what fish do. I wouldnt blame you for folding against some people, but I'm shoving all in.

Against the pot sized bet you can't profitably call. Even if you are sure he will jam if a club hits anyways his jamming when a club doesn't hit makes it unprofitable. There isn't enough money left to win to make up for missing the turn most of the time.

You need to either jam or fold. Which is better depends on how strong his range is and if you have any FE or not. A lot depends on if he has JT,97 and any T9 type hands that are not club draws in his range, if so then you should have enough equity. If his range is two pair+ and combo draw heavy then it could be marginally -EV.

All in. Don't underestimate your FE.

Ya a club is actually the one card he might slow down to which I should’ve mentioned.

Sometimes the more multiway a pot goes, the more people simply donk out their very strong hands, especially on drawy boards where they are afraid they'll give everyone a free card if they check. However, just 3ways, I'm thinking most players probably still go for a check/raise with their monsters. So, with $120 already in the pot (well worth winning compared to our stack), and our hand (we're slightly ahead equity-wise against single pairs, and ahead of draws), and some FE (pairs will have a hard time calling a raise), I think I shove. Even if we run into a monster we'll suck out a decent percentage of the time.

Player dependent of course; there are nittier ABC players that I might just call and evaluate, but this guy looks like he is getting out-of-line today so he has a much wider range than just nuttish hands here, imo.

GcluelessNLnoobG

This. And folding is absurd.

When Villain makes a pot size bet (basically an overbet because of rake) don't we think that he's more heavily weighted towards two pair+ combos though? If he's calling our jam we are coin flip probably at best and behind a decent amount of the time.

And do we really have any fold equity? I mean he's overbetting pot and a jam is only 220 more. I don't think he's ever folding for that much more on this board texture once he bets that amount.

QuadJ nails it.

You need 45% equity to jam. The worst hand in villain's pot donk range, something like T9 or 77, has ~50% equity.

I would expect you to have virtually no FE vs. a villain that just donked for pot on a wet board and has 30% of his stack in the middle.

99/88/66 have 73%
98 has 64%
97 has 63%
T7 has 63%
86 has 62%
T9 has 59%
T9 has 49%
87o has 49%
97o has 49%
77 has 47%
JT has 35%

As boring as it is, folding is best. If you wanna gamble it up then shove but it's likely a longterm -EV play.