Hand 1. I play with villain 3-4 times a year. Every time I play in Reno or Tahoe I see him. I can't recall a lot of details about how he plays but I know he plays a ton, is a smart guy, and is likely a winning player.

He has $500 and I cover.

He opens for $20 UTG and I 3! to 60 with black aces in the cutoff. He calls.

Flop is Kh Jh 6d. He checked, I bet 85, he makes it 185.

Hero????

Hand 2. Villain is an Asian LAG whose range is very wide. He 3! me to 85 with 2-4cc earlier in the session. Twice he's defended his big blind with 10-8o and 9-8o against my LP raises. We both played our hands cautiously in those 2 hands. We both checked two streets and bet one. He didn't seem to want to go crazy against me, but we are doing the whole "I know that he knows that I know" bit. The rest of the table are rec fish that I have seen villain barrel off hands 2-3 times in the last hour.

I straddled OTB for $10. One caller, and villain raises to $45 from the big blind. Caller folds, I'm last to act and call $45 with A8o. I have position on an aggro player and likely the best hand. I planned on calling down fairly light if he kept barreling.

I have 1400, villain covers.

Flop As 2h 4h. V bets 70. I call.

Turn 10s. V bets $200. I call.

River 6s.

V bets $450. He could have spades, two pair, a straight or air. His range is just super wide here.

Hero?

1. Looks like a fold given reads. Unless you think he plays AK this stupidly for some reason. But usually it's just KK or JJ, maybe 66. AQhh also possible.

2. Pre is silly. Three bet or fold. A8o sucks.

I'd fold turn, is he really barreling here with worse?

River seems like a definite fold. Three barreling an ace high board when the draws miss and you know he's a LAG? Can he really have air in this spot??

For hand 1 can you give more info.

How wide does villian open? Is 66 is his UTG opening range?

Would he 4 bet KK etc?

For hand 2 I just fold pre.

A8o is just not strong enough to flat IMO.

As played you had a plan so you have to stick with it now.

Folks around here may suggest you post one hand per thread next time, which is a good practice.

Hand 1 is tough. How does your Villian play combo draws? Can he overplay AK? Still, a CR here is super strong. It comes down to knowing your player. If you read him as smart and capable, and believe this CR is indicative of a big hand, then we can fold. If he can do this with other hands, I may flat and re-eval the turn.

Hand 2 is a snap fold pre. You flopped top pair and still don't know what to do. We can't rely on a 882 flop every time.

Hand 1
-What's your image? Are you an active / action player or nitty foldy type? For the most part I think we have to fold here because this flop smacks your 3bet range and he should be expecting a call from you a lot when he raises only 100 into 290

Hand 2
-I can understand not 3betting if V doesn't have much of a fold button / you are worried he can outplay you postflop in a big pot. However if I'd rather have QT+ against this villain because you want to just flop top pair before continuing against him. A8o isn't great for that.
-I struggle in these spots too. What I've learned is that these players may be aggressive but they aren't idiots. His bet sizing (esp on river) is way too big to be a bluff when you are solidly representing the Ace and appear to have no intention of folding (unless you tanked forever on the turn)

Hand 1.

I would assume Villain is a solid player so I'm narrowing his UTG raise and 3bet calling range to premium hands. AA, KK, QQ, JJ AK.

So when he check raises the flop I'm skewing this towards value.

If we look at this through the lens of combinations there are of 6 AK, 3 KK, 3 JJ and unlikely 2 combos of KJs. For his semi-bluffs I'd discount the 16 Q10's (4 Q10s) , and there is only 1 combo of AQhh and AThh.

It's a close decision but with few reads and the presumed range and tendencies, I'm leaning more towards a fold here.

Hand 2.

I would 3 bet here, given that if he is raising with random hands there are few card removal effects vs our range. Meaning it's less likely he has an Ace which increases the chances we pair our ace.

Hypothetically let's say you did re raise.

Villain raise 45 in the BB

Pot (10+45+3+5) $63

Hero re-raises $110

Pot: $173

We're investing $65 more to win $108, so we must be successful 60% of the time for our 3bet to be profitable. This also means he must at least have a 40% value range in his raise and we profit when he folds more than 40% of the time.

So the value portion of his range vs a 3bet being AA, AK, JJ+ is approximately 30+ combinations.

When solve for the 100% combos in his range when he has 30+ combinations, it gives us the optimal range he should have with value to bluffs.

32 (combinations) / 0.40 = 80 combinations or 100% of his range that may continue vs a 3 bet.

By subtracting 32 from 80, we get the 60% or number of hands that shouldn't call.

80 - 32 = 48 bluff combinations.

By 3 betting pre-flop we put pressure on his range and the optimal number of hands that can continue are limited to a few combinations. And when Villain does call it makes our decision on the flop much easier.

Doesn't KK 4-bet? I can see JJ, but 66 also seems unlikely. Are we really only worried about a discounted range of sets?

Is 3-betting really a good idea? I know villain is capable of 4-bet bluffing. Yes, he can barrel both the turn and river with air.

I don't know if 66 is in his range. I didn't have enough information on the player at the time to know if he could call $60 out of a $500 stack to set-mine. I think he would probably 3-bet KK. He would play JJ this way.

Villain is raising roughly 75% of his range in this spot. He's throwing away total trash like 10-2 offsuit, but he's stealing the straddle a huge part of the time. And villain does not like to fold pre to hero, even OOP.

Yeah the problem is that I don't really know villain. I know he's smart and capable, but I can't recall any specifics of his play. I do know he plays a lot of tournaments and cash games.

He perceives me as an action player for sure. He knows I'm not nitty.

That is precisely what I was worried about. I did not want to get into a preflop raising war with a LAG, given the table dynamic between us.

I agree that flopping top pair on an 8-high board isn't great, but I think flopping an A-high board puts us in a *much* better spot than flopping top pair with a Q-10 type hand.

I did tank quite a bit on the turn. I had a plan, and I wanted to stick with it, but I'll admit I hesitated quite a bit before following through with it. It wasn't an act, either.

That's a very good analysis. I could have used you perching on my shoulder when I was trying to decide what to do.

I don't disagree with your analysis, but you seem to be making the assumption that we never get 4-bet light. This villain is capable of doing that. I haven't seen him do it, but I'm 90% sure villain can 4-bet with with J-9 suited in this spot.

When I first sat down at the table, we were 4-handed while we were waiting for the rest of the list to show up and fill the table. He straddled his button 4-handed and I limped, expecting him to raise. When he checked his option I looked at him and told him I thought he would raise. Then he looked at me and told me he recognized me from the night before.

The night before I don't remember. I had been drinking but didn't think I was that drunk (I wasn't driving). However apparently I was drunk enough to pull $400 out of the ATM, buy into the 3/5 game, book a $1,000 win, and have literally no memory of the session whatsoever.

I don't know how I played at all but apparently he had some idea.

There was a hand that went down between us that I forgot to include in the OP.

I was dealt 10-10 and opened to $25. Villain 3-bet to $75 from the button and I didn't think he was that strong. I 4-bet to $225 and he 5-bet shoved. I still didn't think he was strong and I called. I actually made quads and he never showed, reacted, or told me what he had, even when I asked him 30 minutes later if I really cracked a big pair. I started the hand with $630 and he had me covered, but I still feel like he didn't have a big hand.

Part of the reason that I posted this hand is because I wanted to see how much of a difference a player dynamic can swing a decision in a hand to a call or a fold. If you look at hand #2 on paper, it's a pretty epic spew. But with a good read that villain's line is FOS, is there enough to justify a call?

Oliver Improva, in his book, "The Poker Puzzle" coined a concept called "Points of Honesty", where Villian will only put money in with a strong hand or in other words Villain's bet is not a bluff.

A villain's point of honesty can be different things like a specific player he wont bluff or the turn he'll check after being called, nonetheless it helps us narrow his range making it very useful to observe.

Is he checking the turn or river when you call?

At showdown did he have any equity on the flop, turn, or river? And did he bet?

From what you told me, Ill assume that against you, if hes betting a flush draw he will only continue to barrel if the turn or river gives him more equity.

Looking at flush draws alone

Flop: As 2h 4h

Draws betting
Hearts: 56-68, 78-7J, 89-K8, 9T-K9, JT-KJ, KQ
Spades: 56

Turn: Ts

Would J7 or similar continue here? lets assume not

Draws betting
Hearts: 56 (straight + flush), T7-KT (pair + flush), JQ,KJ,KQ (straight + flush)
Spades: 56

River: 6s

Draws betting
Hearts: 56 (pair), T7-KT (pair), JQ,KJ,KQ (busted)

There are few busted draws that would bet the river for value: 7 total

Lets now count the draw combinations in his range that would bet the river:
10 combinations
Let's be liberal assume we only accounted for only 45% of the heart combinations.
22 heart combinations betting river.

Now lets look at Villain's value range.

Looking at the Ace combinations alone what does our A8 beat?

We dont beat A9-AK, A2, A4, A6 = 56 combinations
So we only beat A3, A5, A7 = 24 combinations

Non Ace 2pairs

24, 46 (discount, 4h and 6s on the flop) = 8 combinations

Sets

AA, 22, 44, TT, 66 (discount) = 11 combinations

Add it up:

Win: 22+24 = 46

Lose: 56+8+11= 75

Total combinations: 121, 46/121 = 38% were good, 62% we lose

Clearly there are much more value combinations in his range.

We need to be good at least 2/3 and we were generous with his flush draws that would donk the river.

Let's see if hes laying us the proper odds. Pot is 1108, to call is 450, about 2.46-1 or 2.5-1

We're being over charged 7.6% or 8% to break even.

Fold....

But wait this where we think beyond the robotic math and take player tendencies into consideration. How would he size it if he wanted you call? How about fold? Does he have a point of honesty? Is he bluffing this river with a weaker hand at higher frequency, the math is against us, but with only a 8% difference, if it's a yes I'd call.

I c-bet the flop both times with overcards and he called with top pair. Turn & river went check-check. I didn't improve, he showed and I mucked. I might normally continue against certain players, but this villain seemed to be waiting for me to bet.

That makes sense and the turn in fact did improve his hand.

Player dynamic completely changed the way I played this hand. For one, I don't think villain won a hand against me all session except for those two blind defends where he flopped top pair. Every time he's shown real aggression in a hand I've called him with the best hand. When he bet $110 on the turn with a pair of deuces, I called him pretty quickly with unimproved 5-5 on a fairly wet board. I thought he was bluffing with overs, not with bottom pair though.

To be honest, I have never put this much money in the middle with top pair middle kicker in my life. One of my poker struggles is differentiating between wanting to call even when I know I'm beat, and wanting to call because my gut tells me I have the best hand.

Do I sound like a donkey trying to justify making a sloppy call?

I think there's a bit of bias towards logical answers when it comes to poker. We won't settle with, well he's done this so he must be bluffing, there is too much fallacy in that statement, however with enough observation it might be accurate. It's the same with math although it may be accurate over a large sample, in a particular situation it's not.

Logic tells you the best decision on average but sometimes it's speculation as well. It's like saying "If Villain bluffs X% of the time here..."
How did you get that number? Is that even quantifiable? And if it is, it relied on other things such as psychology, table dynamic, and do I dare say it the mystical gut feeling. Poker is all about speculation.

Poker pros say "Poker is an information war!" because poker is very situational. That’s why improving one’s observations skills is very important, because ultimately it comes down to the individual and the observations they made. So while a play may not be standard, it may be the best decision for a particular situation.

Thank you. I think that's what I was trying to confirm, although I knew it was true on a certain level.

In hand 1, I shoved the flop. He showed 6-6 for the set and I felt like an idiot.

In hand 2, I called the river bet. He showed Q-10 offsuit and I felt like a genius.

If you can't remember playing an entire session, i think these two hands are the least of your worries.

I don't have a very good short term memory anyway, but when I have a few beers (and I mean 4-5, I rarely drink more) I have gaping holes. This is why I have to track all my sessions on my phone at the table.