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Two 1/3 Aria Hands Two 1/3 Aria Hands

08-25-2013 , 11:10 PM
Hey all,
Have not played poker in a long time so I'd love a line check in a couple of spots:
Hero had only been playing for ~45 mins but had already proven to be pretty damn active, iso-ing and betting a lot post; I'm a young 20-something guy, so you can guess what my image is like.

Villain in hand #1 is a 40-something, clearly a reg (knows all the dealers and another reg) and pretty active. My only hand vs. him I c-bet 15 into ~30 on J62ss board 3-way with AdKs and villain c/r'ed to 35, I folded.
Hand #1: I have 300, all other relevant players in this hand cover. Weakish passive player limps EP for 3, villain limps behind in CO. Hero raises to 12, bb and both limpers call.
Flop (~45): Qd 8s 5c, hero bets 25, villain calls, others fold.
Turn: Kd, hero bets 55, villain raises to 155, hero jams for ~265 total.

Hand #2: Weak/passive player raises to 10 UTG, 2 calls in front of me, I call KJs (I have 300, weak/passive player has ~250), nitty recreational player behind me calls (~500, he had been complaining about getting AA cracked previously in the day and how he should just be shoving when he has the best hand essentially to "stop this madness") calls, 2 calls behind.
Flop (~70): 3s 2s 2d. Weak/passive player bets 25, another villain (new player to table) flats, I flat, nitty recreational player flats.
Turn (~170): 8s. Weak/passive player bets 55, other villain folds, I flat, nitty recreational player shoves for ~400 total. Weak/passive player tank/folds, hero sigh/folds.

Thoughts? Thanks for the feedback!
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08-25-2013 , 11:30 PM
Uh - what was your hand in the first one, for starters?

What are the ranges you are assigning? Is the nit really a nit or just telling you a story?
I'm fine with the fold because 33, AQs, 88 are all possible pf and it's a massive overbet.
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08-26-2013 , 03:00 AM
Sorry, I had AJdd in hand #1. Nit is really a nit, his stories would be weird/creepy if not legit.
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08-26-2013 , 03:11 AM
Hand 1 is fine other than I like a bigger 3 bet pre.

Hand 2: how do you know this guy is so nitty you can release the second nf without considering any other hand than the nuts?
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08-26-2013 , 03:12 AM
I don't see why a nit would shove 22/33/88 here when he's getting so much action already.
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08-26-2013 , 03:15 AM
I mean could be do this with AsAx if he was playing that hand tilted pre? It's probably unlikely given the action, but given his "story" this hand could make sense here.
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08-26-2013 , 04:53 AM
I was mostly curious about hand#1. Villain showed me 88 on hand #2, and I was pretty comfortable with that fold.

It's a call against all combos of 85s, 88, 55, KQ and 76s...is that a reasonable range for villain? Or is he pretty much always nutted here? Do we get folds a non-zero % of the time from a weird as hell bluff line?
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08-26-2013 , 05:39 AM
Hand 1: Bad! You neither have the odds to call, nor any fold equity when you shove so little. I would check the turn, hoping his bet is in the 50ish range, and we can call if we expect to be able to get stacks in on a OTR, or crai with better FE if we don't think he will pay off our flush.

Hand 2: Bad also! As played, I think you're beat OTT, BUT, we need to back this hand up a bit. Now, you call the raise preflop b/c you have a multiway pot brewing and we wanna stack somebody with our flush, right? OK, fine so far. Now, flop comes with a paired board. Why are we calling the flop bet (again, to hit our flush) when we immediately fold when we hit it? If we are so worried that Nitty McNitterson is still in the hand that we will fold our flush when we hit it, then we need to fold OTF. If we are calling the flop bet to hit our flush, AND have McNitterson fold (and we are OOP to him), we are just lighting money on fire. You need to either fold to this flop bet OR raise pretty large, say to about 100 here, we want Nitty out, or we are done. As played, we passively pissed away 26BB, or about our profit for the next 2 and a half hours.
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08-26-2013 , 07:50 AM
I like a check back in hand 1.

yes, i know what you are thinking. "but the K is a perfect bluff card to get him off QT / 99 type hands" but if we have AK/KJ/KT in our hand, would we like getting c/r? Probably not. Also, when the river comes and he checks and we fire, he's going to be put to the test anyways. I only like a bet in the spot if we have a really strong hand (imo KQ to start) or a garbage bluff (like A7).

As played, I would not shove. He either has KQ or a set. He is going to pay you off even if the river is a diamond or a ten. No need to throw away the $110 because he isn't folding.


Hand 2, I am pretty sure the fold is fine. Villain has to be a ridiculous nut bag for us not to be beat here. Let's assume he has a wide preflop call range for a nitty regular + boats. Pot is $280 + 400 and we have to call 345 more so that's 680 / 345 = 1.97 to 1. We need roughly 33.6% to breakeven on our call.

Board: 2s 2d 3s 8s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.212% 46.21% 00.00% 305 0.00 { KsJs }
Hand 1: 53.788% 53.79% 00.00% 355 0.00 { 88, 33, AsQs, AsTs, QsTs, Qs9s, Ts9s, 9s7s, 7s6s, 6s5s, 5s4s }

or:

Board: 2s 2d 3s 8s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.662% 37.66% 00.00% 348 0.00 { KsJs }
Hand 1: 62.338% 62.34% 00.00% 576 0.00 { 88, 33, AsQs, AsTs, As9s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, QsTs, Qs9s, Ts9s, 9s7s, 7s6s, 6s5s, 6s4s, 5s4s }

So we're either +3% EV or +11% EV which is either +$30 or +$110 on our call (if I am doing the math right). However, I would think that this nitty person that is complaining about bad beats would very rarely shove small flushes here and the top of his range is more nut flushes and boats.

Last edited by RBpro; 08-26-2013 at 08:01 AM. Reason: so glad i posted this w/o reading the results
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08-26-2013 , 10:37 AM
Yeah Buster and RB beat me to it, but no way do I shove first hand. No no no. You don't have the fold equity - at that point, $265 is less than a psb. You're repping an overpair or (rarely) an oddly played flush draw, and it's exactly what you have. Villain seems to know this, so I agree with the KQ.

Worst of all, you don't have the pot odds to make this play! Your only hope at this point is the flush. You're 4-1 to make that flush on the river and getting 2-1.

But hey, this is how you learn.
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