1-2, particular tight passive game with most players playing very fit or fold. V, MAWG, has $250 and hero has him covered. Two limpers to hero in CO who raises to $12 with JhTc. I would normally prefer to limp behind here, but I opted to raise because opponents are overfolding the flop and I feel good about taking down more than my fair share with a cbet. Two callers.

Pot $36. Flop is Js7s4h. First guy checks. V bets $20. I call, other guy folds.

Pot $76. Turn is 5c. V bets $25. This is a tight player whose past actions and bet sizing now make me nearly certain he has JK or JA. This is one of those spots where I feel like I just have the guy’s range narrowed in to like 1 or 2 hands. If I trust my read, I’m not getting the right pot odds to call. But I decided to count the 3 Tens and the 9 spades as outs as well, planning to rip the river if a spade hits nearly certain he will fold. Counting the spades the pot odds work out.

Am I thinking about this correctly? Until last night I haven’t worked this kind of move into my game (counting bluff outs). Want to get people’s thoughts before I start doing this more.


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Perhaps it’s easier to solve for your needed fold equity. You’re getting roughly 5-1 on your call with 3/46 cards (6.5pct) as good outs and 9/46 (19 pct) “bluffing outs”.

To get your 20 pct threshold, your bluff must succeed roughly 75pct of the time. Will this V fold that often to a spade?

You just gotta be careful bc some of those spades will give him 2p and he will get sticky

also if he likely has KJ/AJ then big cards are not your friend

I like the way you are thinking here, but I would like to have overcards on my side as well as a spade this way you have more scare cards that you can comfortably barrel

Also, you Unblock spades here, so your opponent can have a FD which would be a disaster, the J is a S so if your read is right then it's not possible for him to have a flush draw , it is just something to consider

So I think we should look to attack weaker ranges with this train of thought and with more scare cards that we can use to our advantage

I don't like the raise pf with JTos ; Just a bit too ambitious overall here imo , I'd prob fold to a nit here , or raise the turn and barrel river if you want to put him to the test, I think folding turn is stnd based on the range you put him on

if you want to continue id just turn your hand into a bluff now and raise the turn (you dont rep anything but if villian is tight passive it will work a good amount). as a default though id just fold given your read

i dont think raising pre is good idea, just limp. i dont like building pots pre with weakish one pair hands

Edit: I have obviously simplified the analysis to give you a starting point. It’s very complex, in that you have to estimate the bet sizing that will accomplish a 75pct fold frequency and then do some algebra around how many times tou will be called down and subtract that from the pots you win etc. You get the idea. But it’s a starting point

pf good

I like your turn plan if you trust your read, won't pay him off if another jack hits. Can we bluff a non spade ace or king if he checks OTR?

Thanks everyone. In hindsight I do think my pre raise was too ambitious. I like it if it is folded to me, or if there is only one limper in certain situations, but with 2+ limpers i should probably just call behind.

I also think maybe I could be picking better spots to try this move...maybe trying to get a guy off top-top is a little too ambitious as well.

Results were i called the turn. River was a brick. V checked. I checked behind. V won with AJ.


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Pre is terrible.

post is fine