Hero young white guy (1400) Running over table, showing down nut flushes and straights for the past hour. Running good bluffs, got caught only in last 2 hours once for a medium sized bet. Image is solid.


Villain young black guy (450) - Seems somewhat competent reg but is closer to a aggro fish then a winning player in my book. not completely clueless though. Once he takes the betting lead he will literally never stop betting with any piece, I don't know if he understands thin value concepts or just doesn't have a stop button.

BB - MAWG, super passive and tight.

Hero AsAd UTG +1 raises to 15

Villain HJ calls

bb calls

Flop - Pot $45 - Three ways - 9s 7h 4s

Hero bets $30

Villain calls, bb folds.

Turn - Pot 105$ - 9s 7h 4s 5c - Super connected board now

Hero checks

Villain bets 50$

Hero calls

River - Pot 205$ - 9s 7h 4s 5c Js - Front door flush got there but i have the ace of spades and don't put villain on a flush draw.

Hero checks

Villain bets $100 has about 250 behind

Hero all in

I'm trying to fold out two pair here, I don't expect straights to be folding at a high frequency. Flushes never of course.

Results below

Preflop is either/or, I'm fine with flop/turn, I'd mostly just check/call the river against a guy that bets wide (against others you could consider a small blocking bet setting our price especially since we're highly unlikely to get raised on this scary river).

If the guy will literally never stop betting with any piece then I don't think there's any reason to turn our hand into a bluff (we're better off just calling and being good a large percentage of the time). And against someone who is hammering every piece and might not understand relative hand strength, attempting to get him to fold 2 pear+ ain't a great strategy.

GcluelessNLnoobG

I thought about calling but I also thought how it would be a disaster for him to turn over 45 offsuit.

I think the 1/3 population overfolds on flushed/straighted boards when met with resistance.

When should we be turning AA into a bluff if not on this runout?

Based on your description of the game it sounds like you've been getting paid off pretty much every time you've made a hand, so I probably wouldn't turn AA into a bluff in this game.

I like your line up until the river checkraise. I think call >>>> fold >> shove, he's going to show up with a lot of random 9x, 7x, pair + straight draw type hands etc. that he turns into a bluff on the river. Also if he does have a hand that beats you you're giving him great odds to call.

Yes, this is a good runout for it, but not a good villain for it, because AA should be a +EV call. The EV of bluffing has to be greater than calling. A more typical opponent wouldn't often be betting one pair and we block bluffs so calling isn't looking so great.

If he is playing the way you describe and folding 54 on the river you can literally get away with x/c, x/c, x/r flopped air and profit because he has so many weak hands in his range and he won't defend against aggression.

This all day. Only get called on river when you are beat so you risk $250 more to win $0 (as you can call the $100 and win that as well as the pot). Terrible price for a bluff.

But we assume that villains are folding all two pair combos here and possibly some low straights and is heavily weighted towards them?

If someone shoved into my 100$ bet when I have 250 behind it just looks so value heavy. It looks like i'm never folding and a terrible bluff spot so it should be a great bluff spot?

Are you calling this off with two pair in live 1/3 when the playerpool has extremely low check raise jam river bluffs? Like the mantra of 2+2 is that check river raises are almost never bluffs in live low poker.


Now my villain snap folded. That doesn't mean he didn't have two pair, I never asked him. I would expect most villains to think about folding two pair but I would snap fold two pair to a river jam on this board as well.

I showed the ace of spades when he mucked. He said nothing.


How often does villain have to fold two pair vs me calling and losing to two pair vs me calling and winning against a one pair/draw turned into a bluff hand.

Also the rare chance he has a one pair hand and thinks im full of chit and calls and loses his whole stack. I had a smiliar situation play out like that on a board similar with me holding aces. But that was against a rec not a reg.

I think this is a +ev bluff. I think calling here is being shown alot of two pairs. I would go for value vs an early open with two pair on this board and I would also bet fold two pair to a check raise river jam against most of the population. Especially if the player has been showing the goods for most of the session and isn't a maniac. I would go for value because the population doesn't fold overpairs enough and doesn't turn them into bluffs enough for it to be risky to thin value bet two pair on this board.



If you would call a check jam with two pair on this board let me know where you play and i'll sit with you.

At limits 2/5 and below, we don't make our $ trying to get V's to fold 2P+. Sure, occasionally it might work, but over numerous trials, it will just lose you a ton. Also think about the odds you are laying here...V has to call $250 to win $655, so he actually would be wrong to fold any hand he has for value UNLESS he views YOU as a total nit. If you were deeper on the river, say you each had $1k behind, then I think it might make more sense.

We make most of our $ in 2/5 and below by value betting our strong and medium strength hands. Bluffs should be a very small % of our core strategy (outside of c-bets on good boards versus 1 or 2 opponents) as most players are call-down monkeys.

He's a reg but closer to an agro fish. As in his biggest leak is betting too much in spots that are risky to bet.

But he's still a reg none the less, puts in alot of time and has been shown the nuts on check river jams for along time now. As we all know live low limit check river jams are rarely bluffs.

The question is would you bet fold two pair here or bet call a jam.

I think for every check jam I see on the river in 1/3 about 5-10% turn out to be bluffs. So you are torching money bet calling here for what would be about 3 to 1.

+1

OP, for the sake of your argument you seem to be ignoring his complete turn+riv bet betting range on this runout, and focusing more on the bottom of it. There ought to be a lot of hands>AA that are probable bet calls, unless you're of the opinion that he is folding anything that isn't a flush (and some flushes too perhaps). Not THAT deep and somewhat committed to his line with not a lot of info this is closer to a ckf than a ckr. Not even sure I would recommend a riv ckc w AAs outside of the one read you want to rely on.

I just want to know if anyone ITT that is recommending check calling with an overpair here is bet calling a jam on this board with two pair at live 1/3.

I'm going to continue running bluffs like this because they've been working for me. Obviously image dependent. If i'm not showing down winners I don't take spots like this but with a solid table image I think this is an ideal runout to turn aces into a bluff.

I find villains are overfolding to check jams on the river and until they stop i'll keep jaming in spots where it seems good to.

The general population is playing face up like is suggested by the responses ITT.

They are check calling their overpairs here so betting two pair on this runnout against an early open is profitable.

They aren't turning their overpairs with blockers into bluffs so betting two pair isn't risky.

And if they aren't turning overpairs into bluffs then bet folding is also the right move if in villains shoes. As this line will always be Ak,a10,aq,kq of spades.

It doesn't matter if anyone in this thread would bet call two pair or not, none of us are the villain in your hand.

You also seem to be missing the point that his range has a lot more bluffs and weak single pair hands than you give him credit for, and obviously all of these will fold to a shove while only better hands than yours will call, especially for such a good price.

Everytime you bluff only better hands can call....

If everyone is bet folding two pair here then check jaming is the right move with aces and the NF blocker?

I'd say many but not all villains are even folding straights here just from the posts on this forum. (check river jams are never bluffs at live)


I don't bluff that often, I pick good spots and only attempt vs regs with a fold button. Rarely have to show any down. I would never attempt this vs a tight passive rec who is likely only betting this runnout with a flush or 10 8.

I would check jam for value vs a maniac rec though. Even on this board.

Awfully thin to bet 2p in the first place.

Bluffing this spot isnt worst thing on planet. But given our showdown it looks like spew.

Villain already put in over 40% of his stack. Expect him to sigh call it off with his value hands. Flushes, straights, sets and 2pair. He is uncapped so those combos should add up fairly quickly.

2 pair is only small portion of his value hands. So even if we get him to fold that portion of his range. I don't think we generate enough fold equity to make bluff more +EV than calling.

So why bluff if hes barreling bottom pair anyway? Makes zero sense.

For said villian bet flop, check call turn and river.

river is spew. Call>fold >>>>>raise

I can definitely fold 2 pair to significant action, problem is a lot of standard villains can’t, which is where we make our money. That said, if it works for you, keep on trucking.

If I were V here, yes I would most likely call with 2P because your line makes very little sense to me as a value line given the stack sizes (shallow). If you actually HAD a flush here (or any hand that beat 2P TBH), there is very little chance you check the river because so many opponents will simply check back because the flush card came. So I would have a hard time believing that you decided to go for CR for value given how the restr of the hand was played.

Terrible logic. The jack of spades is the perfect card to check raise a nut flush on. I'll happily sit at your table anytime if you're leveling yourself this hard.

And the hand was played exactly like anyone would play a nut flush draw. Lead flop, check a bad turn so you don't get raised off your equity and then river look to get stacks in.

I don't always check nut flushes but on the jack of spades especially I would with 100% frequency. It completes straights and two pairs that will be tempted to bet for value. A card I would rather lead on would be a brick spade. 2-4 K or Q that doesn't complete as many value hands.

It's also a great bluff card for opponents with air.


He had 350 behind, I can't get stacks in OTR without a check raise.

I had just tabled two nut flushes in the past two hours where i stacked people by check raising river as well so this is a play the whole table knew I was using.


Also to respond that villain can have a set to earlier poster a set of anything is impossible. Villain threebets jacks preflop, raises all wet flops with sets. The only set remotely possible is a set of 5s if he floated flop.