Stakes: 1-3 No Cap with straddle, 10 handed
Stacks are 650-700ish Effective
Villains are early 50's to early 60's recreational males. Game has been running for about 4 hours.

HJ ($500) raises to $25
LJ (Hero-$800): Calls $25 with KsQs
CO ($650): Calls $25

Flop: Kd 7d 4c
Checks around

Turn: Kx
HJ bets $55
Hero Calls
CO raises to $200, HJ Folds, Hero calls

River 9h
Hero checks and CO shoves for $425...Hero????

I thought about 3betting pre but CO was very much on the tighter side and did not want to face a 4bet. I realize I may have made a mistake not leading on the flop but did not want to bloat a pot (mistake?).

My thinking on river was just that my hand was on the top of my range and if I'm folding there, I'm probably folding way too much.

My read on the river was that he was value betting but his line, along with my line was odd. Maybe I'm wrong but open to feedback. However, I'm a rec player myself getting back into the swing of things.

Thoughts???

Doesn't seem like V has any bluffs here, unless he's ******ed and going nuts with KJ or KT I'd fold. You already told him you have Kx by calling turn, I think it's very unlikely he'd try to bluff you off that or value shove a crappy kicker. Also bet the flop next time, plenty of worse hands that can call.

Tight villains normally dont check tpgk or sets on this flop so what important information do we not know about villain?

I call, expecting to chop vs kq sometimes, beat kt and kj, once in a while lose to ak, and also expect villain to spazz with random pairs jj qq aa sometimes

Also we can consider jamming turn once he bets if we think he can make some incorrect folds

Your not at the top of your range. You just flatted a PF raise, so full houses is the top of your range. Which means you are uncapped on a paired board and V is raising into two opponents anyway?

God I love GTO theory. Gives calling stations (not saying you are one OP, just in general) always the excuse to make the call.

Your V has no incentive to bluff since everyone always calls with Kx here. What bluffs does he have? Diamonds? When was the last time someone waited to bluff turn into two opponents with a frush draw? And no, V would never ovuevalue a worse K here.

If you can't make exploitative folds then you will always be breakeven in this game.

Not really worried about V bluffing so much as that he might think KJ or KT is the nuts. From his point of view, everyone checked to him on the flop, so he probably thinks nobody has a king, or that if they do it's weak. We have trips with second kicker and have so far failed to make any aggressive actions with it, we've checked and then called twice. It's asking a lot of some rando 50s-60s rec player to expect him to read us for a hand that beats KJ or KT here.

It wasn't checked on the flop. PF raiser bet 55 and got called by hero. This in itself is super strong. Any mediocre hand reader should give one of the V credit for a K. Plus it was raised PF to a huge sizing of $25. Hardly likely anyone is even raising or calling that size with K9 or below.

Point is KJ and lower is treading cautiously here. They would never try to play for stacks this deep.

Here is the source I used to make that claim:

Re the rest, I think you're making a lot of assumptions that are likely not shared by the rec villains (for example, that suited K-rag doesn't play to a raise).

Your right I misread the flop.

Still don't like playing for stacks here. Bad regs will slowpaly a flopped set, even with the flushdraw. Classic trappy bad reg mentality to slowplay their monster.

I would fold the turn here and save my money. Snap folding river. stacking off super deep on paired boards without a full house is suicidal.

Agreed, that there are not many bluffs, if any. I was weighting my decision on the likelihood he would go crazy with KJ/KT/K9/K8. You're right on betting the flop in this situation. At the time, I thought I would mix up my play since I was mainly betting my strong flops.

I don't like jamming turn only because we only get called when crushed and let some of the spazzy hands fold. If he has a, once in a blue moon bluff, then I'll give him the opportunity to do it on the river.

It's definitely a leak in my game where I pay off way too often but I'm actually finally beginning to realize this. You're right, full houses are top of my range at the river.

And I definitely take your last point well, your spelling not so much.

Results:

I guess with these stacks and in position and the fact this hand probably plays fine HU in position as well as multiway that preflop is ok. KQo would be a snap fold for me, so I don't think folding here is terrible either.

Flop is either/or. The more ABC everyone is the more I simply bet to protect against the draws (and I'm pretty fine with taking it down now). The more tricky people can be the more I'm cool with our flop check back. Against these guys, I might lean more to a bet but I don't think checking is horrible.

Weird turn spot. I'm cool with our initial rope-a-dope call (especially since a raise usually gets the better to fold most everything we are beating as he ends up doing here), but really weird spot now facing the CO raise.

Turn/River really come down to our read on the CO. And the only read I see is that he's a recreational tight player who seems cool on getting in $650 stacks against a turn donk and call on this board. Yeah, his flop check back is weird, but people do weird things on the flop; the streets that count the most are bigger streets where people are putting in big stacks. If we've never seen the guy do that without ~nuttish hands, then I think we have to lean to a fold at some point (possibly even to the turn raise but definitely to the river shove, imo).

GcluelessNLnoobG

I like the way you play the hand upto river.

Flop - I'd usually bet IP once checked to, but think check back is fine.

Turn - I'd call the raise, our hand is underepped so far, V's hand looks like Kx+ but we beat most and maybe all Kx.

River - Never worry about been 'at the top of my range' in Llsnl, just play super exploitable poker to maximize the ev for the game you are playing in. He checks back his Kx on the river, when he shoves he is beating Kx.

This.

I don't think villain has a K, but Villain is boated here close to always. If villain were a short (like 50-75bb) I'd consider calling. Villains absolutely will spazz here, not even close to as often as needed to be a +ev call. The amount of times this is spazz is greatly reduced the deeper villain is, as in approaching zero.