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Turned set on wet board Turned set on wet board

05-28-2016 , 05:52 PM
Appreciate all the feedback I've been getting here lately, it's been super helpful.

1/3 NL. Villain is on my immediate right, has been active and aggressive, seems more than competent. She lost a big pot to a fish getting it all-in OTF with 56s (she raised limpers on the button pre flop) with flopped flush and OESD, rebought, won a bit back since. She seems prone to tilt after getting stacked. She's gunning for the fish, and has been trying to isolate him pre flop.

We've been chatting a bit and friendly.

Hero's image is a bit less nitty than usual. I've won a couple large pots with monsters and my bet sizes have been aggressive.

UTG ($200) limps (he's a calling station). Fish ($200) limps, one more caller. Villain ($400) is in the SB and makes it $15. Hero ($600) has JJ. I re-raise to $45. Station calls. Folds to Villain who says, "really?" and gives me this look that I take to mean, "I wasn't just trying to isolate the fish, I actually have a hand here, WTF are you doing?"

She calls. Three players to the flop ($136): AK9

Villain thinks and checks. I check. UTG station checks.

Turn ($136): J

Villain thinks and checks. Hero bets $75. UTG folds. Villain calls somewhat quickly.

River ($286): 6

Villain checks.

Hero? How much to bet? Villain has just about the pot size left in her stack. If we bet less than all-in, what do we do if villain check-raises?

The old me would have actually considered checking back this river, but the new me knows that every time I fail to value-bet the river, God kills a kitten.

Comments on all street very welcome and appreciated. Thank you!
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05-28-2016 , 06:04 PM
Quote:
The old me would have actually considered checking back this river, but the new me knows that every time I fail to value-bet the river, God kills a kitten
Good realization.

If we were deeper, I'd bet/fold for sure, about half pot. As it is, I think I'd still do that. I can't see how she could ever raise a hand that doesn't beat us here, so even though we'd get great odds to call if she shoved, I'd probably go ahead and fold.
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05-28-2016 , 06:15 PM
125
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05-28-2016 , 06:16 PM
^ + ^^ ?? SPR is 1:1

IMO turn bet is too small.
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05-28-2016 , 06:47 PM
All in.

Agree that being more on turn would have helped, at least 100
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05-28-2016 , 06:49 PM
Are we ok with the check on the flop?
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05-28-2016 , 06:52 PM
Flop check is basically mandatory on this board three ways in a 3-bet pot.
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05-28-2016 , 07:01 PM
all in
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05-28-2016 , 08:16 PM
Mandatory check flop

Mandatory bet turn: go bigger like way way bigger....half stack turn half stack river. I'd go 100ish on the turn.

As played you can shove or you can thin value again, but if you check back (I'll kill a kitten)
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05-28-2016 , 08:31 PM
Probably betting like $90 on the turn since the things that call probably are calling all bet sizes aside from outlandishly large. Makes river easier too. As played, bet whatever amount you think she'll call with KJ. I'm having a hard time coming up with any hand she can have that will call at all. That's the bad news. The good news is I can't really think of any hand shed have that beats you.
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05-28-2016 , 08:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by spikeraw22
The good news is I can't really think of any hand shed have that beats you.
Suited jack, ten, or nine of spades. Maybe 10 combos there.
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05-28-2016 , 11:38 PM
Not deep enough for a b/f, imo. Just bet AI OTR.
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05-29-2016 , 12:29 AM
$100 turn shove river. The only hand you lose to is QJ
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05-29-2016 , 11:51 AM
Results:

Spoiler:

As played, I bet $100 and would have folded to a CRAI. She tanked a long time and called, mucked when I showed. I'm not sure what she could have called with. I think my line screamed JJJ, but I guess only if she knows my game. Maybe she had AQ?
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05-30-2016 , 12:06 PM
Tricky spot preflop, imo. With her being OOP and 3 fish already being in the pot, I kinda doubt she's raising too light out-of-the-blinds, no? So I'm actually not pumped about the 3bet. However, I also realize that if we flat here we'll most likely go 5 ways to the flop and could easily just end up setmining. However, I'm kinda cool with setmining with idiots in the pot. Another option here might be to minraise to $30 just to isolate in position, but this also reopens the betting which might suck. I'd probably just flat and play poker postflop.

I also check this flop.

I'd probably pot the turn. There's a calling station involved on a drawy board, and main Villain could have AK or might decide to start paying off with AQ/etc. If she has AA/KK, kinda coolerish at this point. If she has QQ/TT/etc. I'm not too worried about these weak hands as its unlikely shes putting in any other money.

Wish we hadda bet more on the turn to setup an easier play on the river. I'd probably shove the river and hope she has AK and puts us on a busted flush draw. Note that she could easily play AK this way (or even 99) for fear that our 3bet indicates AA/KK, but she's still going to have a tough time folding. Not too concerned about some weirdo flush/straight draw that got there as I'm guessing she would just hammered it in herself putting us on a hand that will call it.

GcluelessNLnoobG
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