2/5 1k eff. Limp/call happy table.

We limp UTG 22, folds to bb who 25 HU
853ccs both check
2ss he 50 we 185 he call
Qsss he x we?

Guy is a winning rec, early to mid 30s Jewish attorney. I know he studies poker.

B/f 225 targeting over pairs. Some "thinking" players will check this flop 100% with over pairs for balance as a raise out of the BB is a very tight range that does not connect with this board often. I don't think he has a flush too often AP.

We bet for value of course. Sure he can have a flush, but he has a lot of 8's and Q's in his range too so I think we can get called by worse. I like $210 and would likely fold to a CR.

Yeah, I’m for b/f here.
Against this player I’m going 250-ish.
I don’t think 200 or 250 changes his action a high % at all in this spot against this specific player.

This spot is thinner than it seems though.
It sucks because slow played sets, backdoor flush AND backdoor set are all in V’s range.
Our hand is too strong to not go for value here though IMO.
But I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he re-popped here.

back door set? lol I actually don't think QQ is in his range the way he played post flop; also I think this guy leads his flushes on the river a decent amount of the time

I would imagine that this guy will check AcAx sometimes and bet all the other ones. If there were no flush draw I think he'd check AA more often. I really don't think he's going to check 99-KK. Maybe KK... But that's just IMO and I could be completely wrong. This is the first time I've played at same table as villain even though I see him all the time.

In short I think his odds of having an overpair very low. That was my live read. Yes there are "thinking" players who will check overpairs heads up here but that's rare and should be discounted quite a bit even in a vacuum.

I don’t think Q-Q is totally out of the question here.
I would check QQ+ on this flop a small % of the time.
I do agree that he would likely lead flushes here pretty often, but it’s also a good c/r river for nut flush after being raised on the turn.
Don’t get me wrong. I advocated for a 250 bet.
I’m just saying it’s thinner value OTR than it seems.
There’s not too many hands that we beat that can call here.

I personally find that checking over pairs on flush draw flops can be very profitable heads up or three handed because players tend to eliminate overpairs from your range when you do it. It’s risky, but it works well for me fairly often.
I was also discounting 99-QQ here quite a bit, but QQ is most likely to check flop of that hand group. 99-JJ is almost worth discounting entirely imo.

A-5ss is possible. I’m discounting all other A-until10ss almost entirely.
So my point is that while this feels like a bet spot, there’s very few hands that call us that we beat. Maybe even few enough that a check OTR isn’t totally out of the question.
I still think I prefer a b/f though.

Fold pre. Easy game.

As played, bet the river and fold to a jam. His hand really looks like KK or AA that wanted you to catch up on the turn then potted because there are now a ton of draws.

Curious what hands people think will look up hero. Guy could have gotten trappy with AA but I'm not finding much else. Big clubs and rivered the queen? Seems like a stretch but possible. Hero is in a thinner spot then it seems.

Curious what hands people think will look up hero. Guy could have gotten trappy with AA but I'm not finding much else. Big clubs and rivered the queen? Seems like a stretch but possible. Hero is in a thinner spot then it seems.

b/f 200

Here’s another important factor that hasn’t been acknowledged yet.
If we’re targeting AA-KK mainly here, then a good % of the time V has AA with the ace of spades, which gives a thinking player a perfect c/r bluff hand.

Would V have checked AA on flop? Prob not. But I agree with you that H is thin here.

What's V's lead/big turn call suggesting? V's not making turn overcall without a made straight (A4 or even As4s), a set (55,33) or a straight flush draw (7c6c or 5s4s). I assume he would jam 88 here. And V woudn't have checked flop with 53 or over-called turn with 52 (but it's unlikely described V has those in his range). But V led turn with something presumably.

Maybe he led turn and missed otr with 7c6c. But everything else he overcalls turn with beats H. AP, I'm checking back river and prepared to be called nitty.

Exactly. Seems like he could get owned here pretty easily. I'm checking and at least we see Vs hand.

I would bet between 225-275.

Being afraid that V might try to bluff us is not a good reason to check back such a great hand. Also, just because he might know that he can bluff with the As is very different from being able to actually pull the trigger, which is pretty rare for a 2/5 game. Further if he did have AAsx it doesn't really make sense to turn it into a bluff on this board when it has enough showdown value to warrant a call.

Also IMO he would not get many folds at this stack depth unless hero was airballing, which would make calling with AA much better than turning it into a bluff.

Our line of thinking seems to be pretty much identical here.
I advocated for a 250 OTR bet above.
This is a strangely similar situation to a PAHWM I recently posted.
I like 250-275 best because the specific range we’re targeting calls a similar % of times to $200 and $275. Plus it makes a river c/r bluff less likely from V.

First mistake: never limp, especially out of the #1 Hole. Unless everyone folds and the big blind turbo mucks, you aren't winning anything like that. What are the players behind you going to think? They'll know you're not real proud of that hand. They can trail in since they're getting good enough odds to over limp, or you get popped from behind, knowing nothing about what they may have, and being forced to play OOP with a marginal hand or donate to your opponent by folding. What have you learned about the BB's hand? Nothing. He comes along to see a flop he's already paid for, and with two purely random cards.

Either open for the game standard raise size, or fold those deuces. Limping has led to a series of compounding conundrums where you have no idea where you're at. In this situation, check back and hope you're good.

"...Early to mid 30s Jewish attorney":I wouldn't expect him to be very good. He's still climbing the corporate food chain. That means putting in the hours, and doesn't leave much time for Poker, and his career comes first. Likely a weekend rec-fish who's playing for relaxation and entertainment. I wouldn't expect him to try anything. He called a better than 3X raise after leading out. He found another 135 reasons to call on a pretty unspectacular board.

Interesting to see the 2 sides. I strongly considered checking but settled on betting small in case he does show up with AQcc KQcc etc or an over pair.

Bet river is a must

This. Ignore the nits and faux logic.