1/2 100bb max

V(SB)covers: Middle aged white guy sitting on a pretty healthy stack. he is pretty loose passive pre. he likes to call with a lot of SCs and PPs regardless of the action or eff stack sizes of his opponents. he has shown very little aggression pre flop, but is pretty good at value betting post flop. keeps track of pot size ect, and will value bet when he thinks he is good. doesn't get too trappy or anything. definitely has a fold button on later streets when the betting gets larger, but can get sticky otf and even ott when the price is cheaper.

Hero(MP)400 eff: Early twenties. V saw me play very aggressively when i sat down when i was getting hit by the deck. I really don't think he has folded to me pre flop once yet, so probably views me as FOS, or just annoyed at my aggression and thinks that if he hits a hand he can stack-a-donk. Saw me raise KQs in ep and bet flop, and b/c a shove ott when i flopped a flush within my first few orbits.

previous history:

I raise JT otb and V calls in the bb, and i get two streets of value on a 89J A 5 board.

I raise K8s in the CO and V calls in the sb, and i value own myself for two streets on a K32ss 7 A board vs KQ

I raise AK and V calls in the blinds. I bet a K32ss board, and fold to a large c/r on a T turn when we're both 550 eff. V said he had a big draw

As always, comments welcome on all streets

Straddled pot. 7 handed.

Two calls. Hero makes it 25 with AA in the CO. V is the only caller in the SB.

Flop(60): KJ8

V c/c 45.

Turn(150): A

V leads out 85. Hero?

Since the V has a fold button I like flatting. We are behind QT, but ahead of lower sets and 2-pr hands. Something like KJ may let it go to a turn raise, but call river. Most combo pr/draws are likely folding as well.

Very read-dep given the perceived images.

I'm calling and am going to need a very good reason for folding OTR.

He has seen you check back an Ace in two spots with a one pair hand so he may be going for a value/protection line with lower sets or two pair.

Against a range of JJ/88/KJ/QT/J8 we're a 2:1 favorite. We're getting over 2.75:1 and a call is only incorrect if his range is exactly QT here (it isn't) because we'd be a 3.5:1 dog.

Call OTT.... keep his range as wide as possible. Effective stacks will be < PSB on the river, so you are planning on getting this in when on you, you just want to give him more chance to stay aggressive or confused with worse hands. I am stacking off here even if he goes effective all in on river blank.

How often is V calling a $25 raise with QT from the SB even in a straddled pot? His range should be weighted towards PPs/ATs+/AQo+. I would min raise turn and shove river, and obviously call a turn shove.

QT is definitely in his range. he is pretty loose pre, especially against me when we are 200bb eff.

but whether or not he would lead with the nuts ott is another question. my guess is that he would not just based on no one ever fast playing the nuts, but its possible.

I would still min raise and shove river or get him to spazz shove turn with a worse hand like two pair. If he does have QT I'm paying it off. QT is often donking small on this flop though instead of c/c, and usually c/shoving the turn instead of leading since hero should have AK/KK+/JJ here most of the time.

+1

As I was reading, I felt like this would be my kind of response. I feel like his range is largely made up of 2p type hands that he will likely continue to bet on the river, but may fold to a raise on the turn. I'll give him some rope, and look to get it in on the river. I don't think I'm folding ever, regardless of rivers.

Edit: Just never fold. I can see raising the turn, that's fine too.

I think flatting the turn is terrible.

There are too many cards that can come that will kill our action.

We have $330 left. Min raise would be to $170. But min raise gives Villain $405:85, 4.8:1, with only $160 left.

Shove now.

Awkward preflop stack sizes, FTW...

Also, why not raise the flop?

@ action kill cards... there are not many IMO

If villain has a straight... then results oriented... flatting turn was best

If villain has a set - not much will kill our action.. even Q or T will be tough fold for villain for < pot size bet

If villain has two pair, then only 1 ace and 3 "not his two pair" completely kill action. Even if any Q or T hits, then only a terrible villain gives us credit for a straight... and if they are that bad at ranging, then they are frustration calling anyways.

^ V check called flop then donked turn.

You have to raise turn. His continuing range is so much wider than QT. The board has so many SDs and FDs, sets, good two pairs and combo draws that flatting with top set is just plain dumb.

V has seen you go for thin value before, why suddenly flat now with the top of your range?

You really want to play for stacks.

Can you elaborate? Personally, I think there are few.

There is < PSB effective if we call. Do you think the V will fold a big hand on the river with those odds?

I guess given stack sizes I like shove on turn, but I'm not opposed to call turn/bet river. I don't think either line is terrible here, just don't fold against a villain who is more likely on two pair or a smaller set then a straight.

Any heart, any low pair, anything that fills in straight might kill the action, so there is a fair number of cards that are bad. However, some villains will read our turn shove for a monster and fold some single pair and two pair hands that hero might be able to suck in on river. So this is a bit read dependent.

nevermind... misread action.

Trying to give him a fair range


Board: Kh Jd 8c Ah
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.623% 61.62% 00.00% 949 0.00 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 38.377% 38.38% 00.00% 591 0.00 { JJ, 88, QTs, JhTh, Th9h, 9h8h, 8h7h, AKo, KJo, QTo }

Realistically hearts would be your scare cards. If he misses is he every going to bluff? My initial thought is I think you are missing to much value to not raise. He is coming along with all these hands.

Pot is 235 and you have 330 left? If you jam he would need to call 245 to win 560? He would need 43% equity. Am I off?

Does villain seem like the type of player that will 3b shove OTT with a hand worse than top set?

If we shove, villain is calling only with the top of his range (QT/lower sets [maybe]). He may call with big draws, but I think only if he feels like gambling and, as OP stated, villain knows how to fold. So we will definitely fold out everything that's drawing dead and give up a lot of value. Although the board looks scary/drawy and it would be nice to take the pot down OTT, I don't think it's optimal.

Villain will play straight forward on the river. I think we can comfortably call his shove or shove if he checks. The only time I'm not calling a shove is if a Q or T comes and villain still bets into us. However, if a Q/T comes and villain checks......I think an argument can be made for us betting 1/4-1/2 pot or something.

I think we can add some other hands to that range......KK/AQ/AJ/AT....so we're even further ahead than 2:1.

I'd say about 2/5 of the deck could be action killers for our hand. There's 44 unseen cards left and roughly 19 could slow Villain down.

Ad(1), Qx(4), Tx(4), 8x(3), and 2h-7h, 9h(7). 1+4+4+3+7=19.

If Villain's range is more heavily weighted towards sets we can remove any board pairs as scare cards because he'll never fold a full house. That would leave us with 15 cards that could hurt our action.

If we were OOP I'd be absolutely fine with getting this in OTT to maximize value. Because we're in position however, calling allows the Villain to think he's ahead with 2 pair+ hands he has that he'd fold to a turn shove (OP stated Villain has a fold button).

If one of the 25 "bricks" left in the deck come OTR we can shove over a river lead or make a value bet with a high likelihood of being called by Villain's perceived range as our hand looks like AQ/AT a decent amount if we flat the turn.

It'd be pretty sick if Villain shoved into us if the 3d rolled off OTR but I think we have to call based on how far ahead of his range we are.

Let's refer to these as situation A, B and C.

Only one can actually happen. However, Villain's range includes all.

So when one occurs, then the other two are "scared".

I think if we flat the turn, and the board pairs, there is still big enough stacks left that Villain might shut down with his straight. This is the most likely "scare card" event since Hero's range looks alot like big PP.

I admit that if the flush hits, it shouldn't scare Villain that much, since Hero's range shouldn't include that many XY hands. Really, QJ would be the only thing (remotely) possible, so if Villain holds either, then the gig is up.

If another straightening card falls, its a gross situation for both Hero and Villain. Most likely, both will be looking to showdown cheaply with sets, 2pair, etc., which is a disaster for Hero. In this situation, Hero takes on all the risk for very little reward, while Villain gets his blocking bet in on the turn and maybe gets a free look a the river. Or, Hero shoves the river and Villain levels himself into hero folding his KJ, 88, etc.

Hero's shove on the turn looks a little desperate (and maybe it is, a little). I'm not sure I am worried about Villain folding here. Villain is getting 2.3:1, needs just 30% equity to correctly call.

IMHO... shove is best, its not even close.

Honest question:

We flat the turn, the river is a brick, and Villain shoves: Should Hero fold?

Hell no. That's precisely why we don't shove the turn, it keeps his bluffs (semi-bluffs), two pairs, and lower sets in.....and allows him to think his value hands are good. We're too underrepped.

Also, just a math correction.....1/2.3 is 43%, so he needs 43% equity and by cxy123's range, he only has ~30%. So a shove can only be good if he calls with his entire range, which he won't. We'll lose all the hands we dominate and get called by QT and some of the draws.

I flat turn and it isn't because I'm particularly afraid of QT. I just think he'll pay off with a wider variety of 1 and 2-pair hands to a river shove that's <PSB anyway than to a turn shove over his bet. If your read is that this isn't the case then shove turn.

Not correct.

2.3:1... 2.3-to-1 is 30.3% equity.

+1

Also +1 to bip's comments/logic.