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Turned Set, but Face Value River Bet Turned Set, but Face Value River Bet

09-24-2018 , 12:36 PM
5/5 NL

Hero on button with 66 ($1175)
Folds to CO who raises to $20 ($800)
Hero calls
Villain in SB calls ($700)

Flop:
K74hhx

All check

Turn:
6x

Villain leads for $50
CO calls
Hero raises to $165
Villain tanks for a while and then calls
CO calls

River:
9h

Villain quickly leads for $270
CO folds
Hero ???

This player is an Asian 25-30 year old player who comes frequently to this property. I have seen him pull bluffs in some situations and he has somewhat of a gamble side to him. However, in this particular situation the bet seems to scream value and he seems to like his hand a lot. I am wondering why he would check the flop if he had a flush draw though. And then why would he lead out on a blank turn card? Do I just shrug and call given the action on the flop and the turn?
Turned Set, but Face Value River Bet Quote
09-24-2018 , 12:57 PM
This is a crying call, imo. Lots of flushes in his range, other sets, Some bluffing the scare card. You only need to be good just under 25% of the time, so I can't see folding a set here.
Turned Set, but Face Value River Bet Quote
09-24-2018 , 01:17 PM
Interesting hand ...
1) Why would we expect V/SB Donk on Flop here with a flush draw? Reason to believe CO wont c-bet a Board like this?

2) Why are we only raising $115 into $215 multi-way and giving both V/CO 3 to 1 calling odds? CO now gets 4 to 1 after V call. How much of that $700 do you want?

3) Why wouldn't V 'protect' a set by 3-betting Turn? .. And then Donk-block bet when a flush hits? That's a really strange line for a set IMO. V is not calling Turn with 99 here .. we have to assume CO is weak Kx, eh? So 99 shouldn't be calling with maybe only 1 out.

4) Does V perceive our 'weak' Turn raise as Kx? If so, then maybe this is a bluff ... but into two opponents and so small?

Of course it's never easy to fold a set, but I don't think we are good here very often. Make a man's sized raise on the Turn when multi-way and I think you eliminate a lot of bluffs .. which makes it easier to fold the River. GL
Turned Set, but Face Value River Bet Quote

      
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