1/2 live, any help/advice/critique appreciated.
Main villain in hand has ~$600, hero ~$700.
Hero is BB with JT.
Five limpers, SB completes, hero checks. (Raise here? The way the table has been playing, I'm getting multiple callers if I raise and I don't want to try to play this hand OOP.)
Pot $14
Flop Q59.
Hero checks, villain in MP bets $10, next villain calls, folds to hero who calls, two more folds.
Pot $44
Turn K. Hero checks, villain bets $17, next villain folds, hero calls. (Should I raise here? I figure a raise here basically turns my hand face-up and gets called by almost nothing, but I could be totally wrong.)
Reads on villain: seems to know what he's doing, opens/limps a little wide, rough estimate maybe 35/25, c-bets fairly frequently but hasn't shown down anything crazy/air.
Pot $78
River 5.
Hero bets $40, villain grabs a stack of chips without counting them and plops them down. It turns out to be $135 total, so it's $95 to hero to call. At this point, (I think) I can pretty confidently rule out 99, QQ, Kx, and missed flush draws.
Hero...?

i generally try to have a pretty tight raising range out of the SB and BB.

i lead the flop. i can set my own price and perhaps take it down. if i check the turn, yeah, you want to check/raise. you have the nuts. people won't fold two pair or a set. they're also blind and aren't going to immediately put you on the straight.

Either lead or check/raise the turn, there are lots of worse hands that would call you... at the very least you want the club draws to pay their way or get out.

You also might get a better idea of the strength of V's hand and might be able to lay down on river by narrowing V's range on turn.

I think the river is a bit of a cooler card, and you probably should have lost more money in this pot than you did, so your bad decision not to move on the turn saved you some money at least, a cheap lesson IMO

I should add, just imagine if you bet the turn and river and he didn't fill up on river (most likely scenario); V would call some decent sized bets with Q's up. You have huge equity on this hand, you want to get money in.

Raise turn for value. Its already been said but you'll get value from sets, two pair and draws. Unfortunate river bet/fold depending on sizing.

leading this flop from BB with 6 other people in the hand? So bad.

OP, you have to raise turn every time. Leading turn is okay too. c/c is bad, there are tonnes of hands that will continue.

river is fine. but you need to raise the turn. try to build a big pot with the nuts before a cooler card comes and kills your action. don't try to get too fancy. remember: big hand, big pot. small hand, small pot. what leads to a big pot? betting and raising. what leads to a small pot? checking and calling.

i disagree that your hand is faceup if you raise. but even if it is, who cares? you're playing llsnl. sometimes they'll still pay you off even if they "know" you have it. your objective with a monster hand is not to trick your opponents. it is to win as much money as possible. and the way to do that is to get more money in the pot when you have the opportunity to do so.

i think just flatting in situations like this is a significant leak for many 1-2 players. we tend to focus too much on slow-playing and setting traps when instead we should just keep it simple and raise when we have the nuts.

Awesome, thanks for the replies. Leading/raising the turn definitely makes the most sense. If I had made the right play and bet/raised here, what's a good bet size? I'm thinking $25 if I lead it out and $50 if I c/r? Also, is it better to lead out into two players here or c/r?

Check ore, call flop, check raise turn, don't slow play ur nuts, you'll lose value in the long run. U don't wanna see another card that could give u second best. Being that you call and he throws in a obscured bet on the river I fold. I have found that to be a big tell of strength in live play IMO

grunch:
pre: never raising this hand in this position vs. this table.
flop: c/calling all the way to get as many people in as possible.
turn: c/r is obvious if not leading out. c/c is really really bad.
river: gotta call now.

Gotta go for a check raise on the turn, wanna get value from FDs sets and two pairs. We are beating missed flush draws here and I think we have to call river. IMO sets bet bigger because of the fd, which begs the million dollar question present in every hand "what does villain have"

I think that the c/c on the turn is your biggest mistake here. You hit gin and need to build the pot ott. I think I prefer a b/c line over a c/r ott. (Donking every river) I wouldn't assume that villain is going to fire again on the turn, and having it get checked around would be a disaster.

Raising turn without a doubt.... As played, call river. (before spoiler read)

Same advice after reading the spoiler. Hmmm....

more or less....you're basically giving villain his own price to outdraw you on the river. and even if he doesn't fill on the river, you're costing yourself value in the long run by not building the pot.

lucky you didn't lose as much on a cooler than what should have been.

My goodness, don't lead the river after you check call the turn. Why would you wait to bet until your hand is no longer the nuts?

Ding.

Ding.



Turn is a huge mistake and river compounds said mistake.

LEAD THE TURN. AHHHHHH

V limp range PF (based on flop): AQs-A2s, 55, 99, KQ, KQs, QJ-QT, QJs-QTs, JT, JTs (estimated of course, he probably raises PF with AA-QQ)

V Flop: I don’t think a flush draw (with no pair) bets out into 4 players. So what bets into 4 players for 2/3 pot: 55, 99, AQ, KQ, QJ, QT, Q9, A9cc
Hero Flop: I like the call.

V Turn: Now V bets just over 1/3 pot, hmmmmm, what does he have: sets are unlikely because why lead for 2/3 pot then only bet 1/3 pot on the turn. A scared Q might do this with a hand like QJ or QT. I think AQ would bet at least half pot. A9cc seems like a hand that would bet 1/3 pot.

Hero Turn: Right now we have the nuts, so what do we do? The pot is now $61 and we are playing deep. I don’t want him to get a cheap river card because our hand is vulnerable to a club on the river if he does have a hand like A9cc. Thinking about the V’s range, I would like to get more money into the pot with the nuts, but not blow him off his hand. I would raise to $47; that would make the pot $108 and the V would have to call $30; about 3.5:1 (incorrect odds to draw to the flush). This gives him good odds to call with a hand like two pair, or a weak Q, although he might fold the weak Q because of the K on the board.

Hero River: As played, leading for half pot isn’t bad, but now V has raised giving you about 2.5:1. Per stated above, I don’t think he has a set, but now that he’s raised, we need to re-evaluate. The V’s line for a full house, doesn’t make sense to me. From the Villains stand point, you’ve played the hand very passive, so he might be trying to extract value from his two pair hand, although a weak Q likely wouldn’t raise here. Without any reads on the Villain, I call the bet.