1/2 live at turning stone

Hero ($250) is 18 year old white male. been at table for a few hours, all standard TAG so far. Not a regular as i am on vacation here

Villain is a mid twenties white regular. jelled back black hair. Has about $500 in front of him. Seems pretty ago, seen villian 3bet light and cbet light before

Previous history.

Just few hands ago. MP raised to $10, hero($110) called with 99, villain called. Flop ~30
578 rainbow. MP checks, hero bets $20, villain calls, MP folds

Turn ~70
6, Hero check villain bets $50. Hero calls.
(Pretty big scare card in general, hard to get value from worse by betting, not worried about 9T since i have blockers, think its best to x/c down and let villain barrel off

River 2
Villain puts hero all in, hero calls, villain says 2pair, hero shows straight and villain mucks

Hand in question. Hero($280) is in CO with QJdd. 3 limps, hero limps and villain makes it 22 from BTN. fold fold fold, hero calls.
Flop ~50 K73dd. hero check villain bets $50, hero calls.
Turn ~ 150 off suit T. hero checks villain ships for about 200 more. Hero?

Think i like a turn lead more in this specific situation. will post results soon.

Is this the same Villain as hand 1?
We can't call OTT even tho we have a HUGE draw. Were not getting the right price, and based on this guys play, we will have plenty of other spots to stack this guy.

Yes same villain.

I wrote 3 paragraphs outlying equity, player profile, line executed, all pointing towards call and then I saw the T on the turn again and realized you have an OP SFD--- so I deleted all of that post to say 'there isn't a question you're not calling here right?


I like turn check. You're (semi-)bluff catching a decent amount of his range he would otherwise just call or fold if you bet, calls not good, too cheap for river card.

If he checks behind you're getting free card for you're huge draw, which is not bad because he most likely has more realized equity for you, allowing you to make an optimum decision based on the river card.

If bet turn, relatively small to induce bluff/semibluff shove, if calls draw for cheap. Bonus is he doesn't put you on draws only when river hits draws and you bet.

betting gets the old folds worse and gets calls/raises from better; removing alot of auto-pilot bluff play from his arsenal.

Alot of my decision is based on the fact that I believe a decent chunk of his range based on PF play, history, and Flop play incorporates semi-bluffs and
some air.

What?

We need 36% equity to make call.

We have 33% equity in made hand draws.

We have an extra 6 outs if he has some air, semi-bluffs, decent/marginable hands in our Q and J for another 13% equity?

We have added equity of at least 2-5%+ for air and semi bluffs, SC (also lower diamonds then ours), TJ, T9, 98, 79 etc, Pocket JJd, 99, 88 eg, ATo random air

Sure Ax of diamonds sucks but it happens.


If you actually wanna believe this guy's story it';s ultra strength, but that's ok beacuse our OP SFD beats that if it hits. The other side is he's thinking player and a good amount of his range to make this PF move, flop move, with his history is that it's some air and semi's


I don't see how you fold.

with one card to come facing an overbet i think this spot is breakeven at best. So rare that Q high is the best hand and sometimes some of our outs are not good. He is repping atleast a K so i don't think out Q or J outs are live that often either. Yes he can be light here but still think i have to fold given price.

(This was also i big chunk of the money i brought on the trip. If I'm fully rolled, with a few grand maybe i call)

we has an OSED and FD not a OESDF, T is offsuit.

I'm not sure I like the flop c/c of a PSB. What's our plan when we hit? Lead out or c/r? Even with the history hand I'm not sure we have enough info on Villain that we can play a naked FD profitably OOP on the flop for a PSB.

If V has a fold button, flop is a c/r, imo. The 99-QQ/AJ/AQ part of his range will fold. If he doesn't, then I prefer c/f the flop; but in that case, we should probably just be folding pre.

I meant OpenEndedStraightD and SFD

An overarching factor, regardless of everything else which still MIGHT merit a call is I feel based on line and history

that semi-bluffs/air are 10-15%+ of his range easily, eassssily


Edit:
The position(button) of V, the Preflop play, than the Cbet, then turn shove; tumble in background: how are you giving him an uber amount of credit


Added:
Villain is a mid twenties white regular. jelled back black hair. Has about $500 in front of him. Seems pretty ago, seen villian 3bet light and cbet light before

even against an agro villain how often do you guys think Q high is the best hand?

Against a villain capable of taking this line (obviously capped at K9, in position I don't like the preflop call where even if we make a hand like top pair he's probably going to blow us off of it. Change seats, get position on him, or wait for bigger hands, or change tables. Playing QJ against this type of player is not profitable

36% equity to call

33%+ equity in made hand draw


Everything else is bonus.



To me I have to call in a reflective evaluation everytime.

I am surprised that no one has said the trivial fold pre advice yet. We are limp callin an 11x raise OOP vs an aggressive opponent with Q high. Don't like the call preflop at all.

As played I think you should be raising flop to maximize fold equity. Once we just call I like shoving the turn once we pick up extra equity. Sometimes the nut flush draw folds and sometimes 1 pair hands fold.

All in all this decision comes back to folding pre flop as we will be put to tough decisions being OOP and only having Q high. This is a math question now and I think that call really depends. I am going to just wait for one of the 2+2 math wizards to take this one. The hard part about making the calculations is we need to have an idea of villans shoving range on the turn.

Edit: let's not go assuming our Q or J is ever good. The small amount of times that's ever possible is over come by the times villan has the Ax of diamonds. Throw that in your range for villan.

This is the most important thing in the entire consideration of the hand.

Pre-Flop always is.

grunch
I fold. Do not think enough bluffs here to compensate for the poor drawing odds. Also, he may be bluffing with best hand like Axd which negates our best draw. Not likely, but possible. I'll wait for a better spot. Good bet by villain!

correction to preflop action, there was actually a raise to $6 and a believe 2 callers in front of me not a limp and a few over limps.

cannot call IMO i dont really even like a call otf because we aren't that deep and V bet big. AP, i do not like a turn lead better because what are we trying to accomplish with that bet? to get V to fold a better hand? not likely, due to previous hh he over valued the relative srength imo of his two pair. and we are definitly not getting a worse hand to call because we arent ahead in equity against anything