Turn semi bluff shove w/ 109o: Good move or FPS?
06-15-2014
, 01:12 AM
The game: 1/3 No Limit
Villain (BB $315): Young 20's African American who is the occasional Fri/Sat player, but not much more than that. He is very confident in his game, and definitely tries to put his opponents on ranges. Not quite TAG because he definitely gets passive with a wider range than most.
Hero (Button ~2k.. Fiiiine... covers): Young 20s white guy. Playing mostly TAG, but trying to call a lot in position vs one insane donk. Basically a drunk fish is puking money all over the table, and everyone is just waiting for opportunities to get top pair (or heck, even midpair) all in against him with his any 2 cards. The drunk fish is the PFR in this hand.
History: Hero and Villain have gone to showdown twice in the past 30 minutes, while Hero had strength both times and Villain specifically said, "Man, I don't want to mess with you anymore".
The hand:
Pre: Drunk fish opens 15 in MP (w/ about 500eff), I decide to widen my range and call with 10c9d against him (knowing the implied odds are through the roof). Villain, who is specifically going after the fish, calls from the BB. His range is extremely wide here, but never any sort of big pairs or Ak's.
Flop (40 in pot): 9
42
Villain checks, BB c/bets 30 (c-betting about 90% of the time). I feel that I'm ahead and don't want the BB getting good odds to draw, so I raise to 85 to iso (bet sizing too small?). BB slowly calls with a lot of doubt and hesitation, glancing at the fish repeatedly trying to see if he is ready to call. The fish folds.
Turn (240): 3
The BB checks to me. I think his range is HEAVILY weighted toward draws based on his slow call on the flop. I've played with him several times and cannot imagine him slow playing two pair or a set with a fish still in the hand. I figured that he may also have A9s/K9s occasionally, but luckily no Xh9h combos since the 9h is on the board. I'm not thrilled with the turn for semi-bluffing purposes; however, I cannot come up with many strong hands that he would take this line with.
I decide to bet 200 (his chips were stacked funky and I thought this was all in, but he really had ~215 behind). He shoves.... I make a crying call for the last 15...
Final thoughts: I felt that my bet would be able to fold off the A9 or K9 in his range, and definitely price out any flush draws or weird Ahxh combos like Ah2h/Ah3h. The larger bet (200/240) was intended to maximize my fold equity vs his range. I think that my line could still look like 10s/Js or even a set here. I figured that the only hands in his range that could hit this turn are Ah5h or maybe 5h6h, but if these are in his range then there are so many other combos I'm ahead of and/or able to push off.
Case of fancy play syndrome or a well timed bluff given the circumstances?
Villain (BB $315): Young 20's African American who is the occasional Fri/Sat player, but not much more than that. He is very confident in his game, and definitely tries to put his opponents on ranges. Not quite TAG because he definitely gets passive with a wider range than most.
Hero (Button ~2k.. Fiiiine... covers): Young 20s white guy. Playing mostly TAG, but trying to call a lot in position vs one insane donk. Basically a drunk fish is puking money all over the table, and everyone is just waiting for opportunities to get top pair (or heck, even midpair) all in against him with his any 2 cards. The drunk fish is the PFR in this hand.
History: Hero and Villain have gone to showdown twice in the past 30 minutes, while Hero had strength both times and Villain specifically said, "Man, I don't want to mess with you anymore".
The hand:
Pre: Drunk fish opens 15 in MP (w/ about 500eff), I decide to widen my range and call with 10c9d against him (knowing the implied odds are through the roof). Villain, who is specifically going after the fish, calls from the BB. His range is extremely wide here, but never any sort of big pairs or Ak's.
Flop (40 in pot): 9
42 Villain checks, BB c/bets 30 (c-betting about 90% of the time). I feel that I'm ahead and don't want the BB getting good odds to draw, so I raise to 85 to iso (bet sizing too small?). BB slowly calls with a lot of doubt and hesitation, glancing at the fish repeatedly trying to see if he is ready to call. The fish folds.Turn (240): 3
The BB checks to me. I think his range is HEAVILY weighted toward draws based on his slow call on the flop. I've played with him several times and cannot imagine him slow playing two pair or a set with a fish still in the hand. I figured that he may also have A9s/K9s occasionally, but luckily no Xh9h combos since the 9h is on the board. I'm not thrilled with the turn for semi-bluffing purposes; however, I cannot come up with many strong hands that he would take this line with. I decide to bet 200 (his chips were stacked funky and I thought this was all in, but he really had ~215 behind). He shoves.... I make a crying call for the last 15...
Final thoughts: I felt that my bet would be able to fold off the A9 or K9 in his range, and definitely price out any flush draws or weird Ahxh combos like Ah2h/Ah3h. The larger bet (200/240) was intended to maximize my fold equity vs his range. I think that my line could still look like 10s/Js or even a set here. I figured that the only hands in his range that could hit this turn are Ah5h or maybe 5h6h, but if these are in his range then there are so many other combos I'm ahead of and/or able to push off.
Case of fancy play syndrome or a well timed bluff given the circumstances?
06-15-2014
, 01:51 AM
06-15-2014
, 11:37 AM
3 or A2. They actually are correct to call a shove by you. A shove would offer Villain odds of 455:215, a little more than 2:1. But Villain beats you by hitting an ace, 5, heart, or making trips. That's 17 outs out of 44 cards, for odds of 27:17, which is less than 2:1. Since his odds of hitting are shorter than any odds you can offer him, he won't fold.Meanwhile, Villain just cold-called your flop raise. It's entirely possible that he's slowplaying a monster.
When I'm in a spot where Villain's range consists of draws that would be making no mistake or a small mistake by calling me, and made hands (like a set or turned straight) that I'm making a huge mistake by getting it in against, I usually--not always, but usually--check it back. In this case, Villain has stated that he wants to avoid you, so I think he doesn't have a lot of weak draws in his range because you gave him a chance to fold those on the flop. He's got a strong draw or a monster hand, and that's not a range you're in good shape against. I'd probably check the turn back, and then probably give up on the river depending on his bet size (since, as others have stated, your flop raise is overplaying your hand).
06-16-2014
, 02:55 AM
Quote:
If you think about it a little more, you can't price out A3 or A2. They actually are correct to call a shove by you. A shove would offer Villain odds of 455:215, a little more than 2:1. But Villain beats you by hitting an ace, 5, heart, or making trips. That's 17 outs out of 44 cards, for odds of 27:17, which is less than 2:1. Since his odds of hitting are shorter than any odds you can offer him, he won't fold.
Meanwhile, Villain just cold-called your flop raise. It's entirely possible that he's slowplaying a monster.
When I'm in a spot where Villain's range consists of draws that would be making no mistake or a small mistake by calling me, and made hands (like a set or turned straight) that I'm making a huge mistake by getting it in against, I usually--not always, but usually--check it back. In this case, Villain has stated that he wants to avoid you, so I think he doesn't have a lot of weak draws in his range because you gave him a chance to fold those on the flop. He's got a strong draw or a monster hand, and that's not a range you're in good shape against. I'd probably check the turn back, and then probably give up on the river depending on his bet size (since, as others have stated, your flop raise is overplaying your hand).
3 or A2. They actually are correct to call a shove by you. A shove would offer Villain odds of 455:215, a little more than 2:1. But Villain beats you by hitting an ace, 5, heart, or making trips. That's 17 outs out of 44 cards, for odds of 27:17, which is less than 2:1. Since his odds of hitting are shorter than any odds you can offer him, he won't fold.Meanwhile, Villain just cold-called your flop raise. It's entirely possible that he's slowplaying a monster.
When I'm in a spot where Villain's range consists of draws that would be making no mistake or a small mistake by calling me, and made hands (like a set or turned straight) that I'm making a huge mistake by getting it in against, I usually--not always, but usually--check it back. In this case, Villain has stated that he wants to avoid you, so I think he doesn't have a lot of weak draws in his range because you gave him a chance to fold those on the flop. He's got a strong draw or a monster hand, and that's not a range you're in good shape against. I'd probably check the turn back, and then probably give up on the river depending on his bet size (since, as others have stated, your flop raise is overplaying your hand).
Yes, my flop raise was intentionally overplaying my hand (since I was willing/trying to get it all in against the mega fish who was taking nearly ATC all in on the flop), and it does make sense to slow down my hand once the fish folds. Checking behind is definitely my standard play in this sort of situation. However, I still think villain has a lot of random flush draws in his range that I still have a decent amount of fold equity and showdown value against, but I clearly need to stove some ranges. Plus, a better read on how he plays draws is essential here (i.e. if he's willing to call a draw all in for a marginal EV situation at best).
As for calling it a bluff, I definitely see what you guys are saying. I really wasn't sure what to call this bet since I was over-repping my hand so much!
Now, the results:
The river bricked everything (Q
), he mucked his cards, and looked at me in disbelief as he left the table.