Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 104
It's clear you know this player whose playing ~50% of hands yet folds to c-bets on missed flops. If you know this about him what do you think he thinks about you and what about your knowledge of each others' knowledge of the other player and its affect on the hand? He called your 5/6 pot c-bet and so by your read he has a hand which includes pair, two pair, set, straight and flush draw holdings. He donked the turn for 3/4 pot, which you read, because of his typical betting pattern, as two pair holdings or as a flush or straight draw rather than a made flush. This is where his style of play is tough for rational tight players.You call with your over pair and draw to the third nut flush. Knowing what you do about him did you ever consider raising all-in, ~320, to try and take the 280 pot or less likely get maximum value from JX hands or AhX hands? Does raising in this spot ever get a two pair hand or less likely a set to fold? Considering your hand and the player folding seems the weakest of the three options. You called thinking that your hand had some value but were concerned about dangerous river cards, including the A. He checks the river and you feel he got there and so you need to bet to win. The pot is actually 400 (60 pf, 60+100 flop, 160+240 turn) and so your shove would be 1/2 pot and give him 200:600 or 3:1 to call. He's not folding AJ or A8, A5 or A3, sets or small flushes and is unlikely to fold small two pair hands. The only hand he might fold which beats you is Ax but by your read he would've folded that to your c-bet on the flop. Your read also suggests he wont call worse pair hands in this spot. There is also the possibility that he knows you and might have checked a big hand knowing that if he bet you'd fold but if he checked the river you might bet and he could then extract more value. Check behind.
Last edited by losttrappist; 07-22-2013 at 10:29 AM.