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Turn QQ into bluff? Turn QQ into bluff?

07-22-2013 , 04:52 AM
1-2$ game table stack avg is over 150bb. I have 400 and villain has a little under 400$. Villain vpip is close to 50%. Loves to play as much hands as he can. Never folds to 3bet pre. Folds flop to cbet if he misses. If he hits any piece he will float. On river he doesnt like to call unless he has nuts especially if facing huge bet. Sometimes bet out with bottom pair or draws likely to just wanting to end the pot right there.

Folds around to villain sb. He raises to 8$. Which is nothing unusual. I have QQ on bb. I 3bet to 30$. He calls
Flop J53 two hearts. Pot = 60$. He checks i bet 50$. He calls

Turn 8 of hearts. Pot = 160$. He leads 120$.
I have 320$. I alwo have Q of hearts.
Usually this is obvious fold. But i have history with this villain. I know he doesnt bet this big if he has it. I would think if he has the made flush he would bet 80$. I think he could easily have 46 or ace of heart flush draw. So i call.
Also by calling i could potentially have a flush in his perspective.

River ace of clubs. So J538A with 3 hearts. Pot = 300$. We both have around 200$ left.

He quickly checks. I have two conclusion. That my hand was good on the turn. And that he doesnt have a flush. Theres a good chance he spiked his ace with like AT or something in which my hand is no good.

If i bluff shove the river 200 into 300$. I need to be right 2/5 times. So he needs to fold 60% of the time. Which i think its really close. He never likes to commit on river if he doesnt have the flush so he would fold AT. But if he had A8 i dont think he could fold that. And theres a chance he suddenly just goes wutever and call with A-rag.

Against this type of villain is bluffing river here too high variance of a play? If i check does my hand ever have show down value? I do believe he has an ace a good chance of time and if i check i lose 300$ in the middle when theres a 60% chance of stealing it if i shove.
Turn QQ into bluff? Quote
07-22-2013 , 05:06 AM
Just check. I think a lot of the time we are beat he sigh calls and a lot of times he folds we are winning anyway.
Turn QQ into bluff? Quote
07-22-2013 , 09:30 AM
Check behind.
Turn QQ into bluff? Quote
07-22-2013 , 10:22 AM
It's clear you know this player whose playing ~50% of hands yet folds to c-bets on missed flops. If you know this about him what do you think he thinks about you and what about your knowledge of each others' knowledge of the other player and its affect on the hand? He called your 5/6 pot c-bet and so by your read he has a hand which includes pair, two pair, set, straight and flush draw holdings. He donked the turn for 3/4 pot, which you read, because of his typical betting pattern, as two pair holdings or as a flush or straight draw rather than a made flush. This is where his style of play is tough for rational tight players.You call with your over pair and draw to the third nut flush. Knowing what you do about him did you ever consider raising all-in, ~320, to try and take the 280 pot or less likely get maximum value from JX hands or AhX hands? Does raising in this spot ever get a two pair hand or less likely a set to fold? Considering your hand and the player folding seems the weakest of the three options. You called thinking that your hand had some value but were concerned about dangerous river cards, including the A. He checks the river and you feel he got there and so you need to bet to win. The pot is actually 400 (60 pf, 60+100 flop, 160+240 turn) and so your shove would be 1/2 pot and give him 200:600 or 3:1 to call. He's not folding AJ or A8, A5 or A3, sets or small flushes and is unlikely to fold small two pair hands. The only hand he might fold which beats you is Ax but by your read he would've folded that to your c-bet on the flop. Your read also suggests he wont call worse pair hands in this spot. There is also the possibility that he knows you and might have checked a big hand knowing that if he bet you'd fold but if he checked the river you might bet and he could then extract more value. Check behind.

Last edited by losttrappist; 07-22-2013 at 10:29 AM.
Turn QQ into bluff? Quote
07-22-2013 , 11:49 AM
This play is super read dependent and only you (or others who have plahed with this specifoc person) can make a useful suggestion. Your read is so specific and if your read is as good as you are making it sound then you wouldnt be making a thread about it.

Sounds like you shoved got snapped, and want justification for making a bad play.

I check behind here all day you have decent sd value. Its mega spew to shove against 99% of 1/2 opponents.

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Last edited by drowski; 07-22-2013 at 11:54 AM.
Turn QQ into bluff? Quote
07-22-2013 , 03:37 PM
Just check bro
Turn QQ into bluff? Quote
07-22-2013 , 04:46 PM
Really common problem here. You range him on the turn to justify the play you want to make then change the range on the river to do the same.

Turning made hands into bluffs is the latest fad. light 3! is boring now. It is a horrid play here because given description he folds almost 0 hands you beat.

If your turn call was good for the reasons you gave on turn, check here and expect to be good a lot and the times he has AT comfort yourself that you didn't spew off another 200 to a hand that is not folding.
Turn QQ into bluff? Quote
07-22-2013 , 04:50 PM
Tough spot, but I think agree with the masses and say check the river.

I think you can 3-bet more given your description of the villain. That may help you in this hand, it may not, but going forward I think it will give you some additional value.

General rule -- they have to be a pretty good player to bluff them at the low-stakes. This guy doesn't seem good enough to bluff.
Turn QQ into bluff? Quote

      
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