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09-13-2018 , 05:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by shorn7
Yeah you are probably right here Mike. Pot would be $667 to call $215, so a bit over 3-1, so I would need 32% equity to call off here (if I eliminate higher sets from his range which would make sense as doubt he would check/shove a set when the flush came in). So, with 10 outs, it is right there (44 unseen cards assuming he tabled two clubs, 3.4-1 to fill), Small -EV but that goes away even with a tiny chance I am ahead and he is making a play with AX
This is not correct.

If you bet $110 and he shoves, the pot is $667. You need to call $215 more. To calculate the equity you need you have to add your $215 to the pot

$667 +$215 = $882

Then divide your $215 into the $882

$215/$882 = 24.3%

24.3% is the equity you need to call.
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09-13-2018 , 05:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mdelore
b/c turn is spew. We are not getting two streets of value from top pair and that hand is drawing dead 75% of the time. We can wait until the river and get the same value from that and not expose ourselves to getting crai from the significant part of the range that just got there. Betting to protect and for value here against specifically 3 hands isn't making sense.
+1
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09-13-2018 , 05:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by setintostraight
Yeah no, blindly shoving your stack (100+ BBs) into a wet board where we only get called by straights and flushes (in this hand) is not a cooler.

I made enough of these mistakes in my first 30 hours to chose my forum ID specifically to remind myself to double check the board before playing sets like this.

Against unknowns, I just pot control this and check back turn. We can eval the river card then, but generally speaking I'm less concerned about a paired board killing action here. But my card room is nittier than average, so betting turn after raising is unlikely to get called by anything lower than a flush.
Maybe in your nittier than average card room. In which case you should start bluffing a lot more, especially on these types of boards if you always get credit for a flush which is just lol.

Another note we are playing the pot HU vs the opener who will have a lot more strong Aces in his range that could contain a club, also KQ-QJo containing just one club that could have floated given that hero did not make the raise too big. So there are lots of hands we still get value from and hands that can be like **** it ALLIN if they picked up some equity on the turn. We don't always run into a flush.

I can't really get behind having a range of only flushes when we are value betting this turn. Its far too narrow, and with so many worse hands out there that can still continue I think that betting will be the more profitable play. Sometimes you run into a flush and value-own yourself but you can still draw to the full house but most of the time you will have the better hand and stack this guy as he feels committed to calling the river once the pot gets so big. Checking lets villain get away from the hand too cheap IMO.
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09-13-2018 , 06:00 PM
Mrdestiny:

So you're advocating a depolarised betting range on this turn or more generally? I know depolarised is supposed to be better/tougher to play against.

Alternative to including sets/2-pairs with your flushes/straights in your turn betting range is to continue betting your own top-pair+FD and some bare FDs (if you can have them). Would this count as polarised or partially depolarised given the presence of strong top pair?

Certainly continuing to bet with nut-flush blocker is v important if you want to be able to bluff river (and have nuts on 4-flush rivers).

I find this stuff difficult to get my head around away from the table let alone at the table but consider it worth persisting with...
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09-13-2018 , 06:58 PM
how are we interpreting his flop sizing into 4 players
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09-13-2018 , 07:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ragequit99
Mrdestiny:

So you're advocating a depolarised betting range on this turn or more generally? I know depolarised is supposed to be better/tougher to play against.

Alternative to including sets/2-pairs with your flushes/straights in your turn betting range is to continue betting your own top-pair+FD and some bare FDs (if you can have them). Would this count as polarised or partially depolarised given the presence of strong top pair?

Certainly continuing to bet with nut-flush blocker is v important if you want to be able to bluff river (and have nuts on 4-flush rivers).

I find this stuff difficult to get my head around away from the table let alone at the table but consider it worth persisting with...
You should be betting for thin value is what I'm advocating. It will make you much tougher to play as your value range will be wider and thus you can bluff a lot more. You can get away with some extremely thin bets as people are almost never going to punish you for it by x/r rivers as bluffs. The only downfall is that sometimes you value-own yourself.

My turn betting range would include sets and 2 pairs as well as flushes but no top pairs with flush draws as I would not raise them on the flop and probably will be 3-betting most of my strong aces. Tbh I wouldn't have too many bluffs on the turn as I am not the initial raiser and called from CO (but who needs to be balanced in live poker anyways). Maybe some QJhh, KJhh but I would probably just float with these.

If I had a strong pair with a flushdraw I would check these hands back to have some nut/2nd nut flushes on the river when I check turn. Offsuit broadways I would be double barreling all day.
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09-13-2018 , 07:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 8o8
how are we interpreting his flop sizing into 4 players
we don't have any reads on him so we can't use bet sizing tells to narrow his range. People will do that with the nuts or people will do that with bottom pair

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
This is not correct.

If you bet $110 and he shoves, the pot is $667. You need to call $215 more. To calculate the equity you need you have to add your $215 to the pot

$667 +$215 = $882

Then divide your $215 into the $882

$215/$882 = 24.3%

24.3% is the equity you need to call.
24.3% and 32% are like statistically the same in live low stakes recreational poker. We don't need to depend on a 7.7% accuracy rate to win when other reads and factors are also used to make decisions, some with a higher degree of reliability and influence than others.
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09-13-2018 , 10:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Playbig2000
we don't have any reads on him so we can't use bet sizing tells to narrow his range. People will do that with the nuts or people will do that with bottom pair



24.3% and 32% are like statistically the same in live low stakes recreational poker. We don't need to depend on a 7.7% accuracy rate to win when other reads and factors are also used to make decisions, some with a higher degree of reliability and influence than others.
Well I would strenuously disagree with that but either way, he needs to be able to do the math correctly in general....and Im not even the math guy at all.
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09-14-2018 , 09:24 AM
Thanks Mike you are right. For some reason yesterday I was brain farting everywhere by not adding my call to pot size. Maybe I didn't feel like I deserved to get it back???
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09-14-2018 , 10:11 AM
Shoving turn is mistake in most circumstances, however it's a mistake IMO to check this turn. With an Ace on board, top pair is very possible either with a two pair type over card to this board (AQ, AJ) or now a gutshot on the turn (A3 or A4). He can also have an Ace with a backdoor club redraw, possible even a Ten with a Kc or Qc that has decent equity and will call a turn bet.

Ranging V only on made hands beating you at this point is a mistake. I for sure like a bet and on a blank river (non-club) I'm probably ripping river if he checks. Probably getting a cry call out of two pair from Villian
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09-14-2018 , 12:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jtm1208
Shoving turn is mistake in most circumstances, however it's a mistake IMO to check this turn. With an Ace on board, top pair is very possible either with a two pair type over card to this board (AQ, AJ) or now a gutshot on the turn (A3 or A4). He can also have an Ace with a backdoor club redraw, possible even a Ten with a Kc or Qc that has decent equity and will call a turn bet.

Ranging V only on made hands beating you at this point is a mistake. I for sure like a bet and on a blank river (non-club) I'm probably ripping river if he checks. Probably getting a cry call out of two pair from Villian
What is the bet size for the turn? We have an awkward stack size and it really really sucks to face a turn reraise. Checking the turn can also invite bluffs on the river.
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