Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
Well, the pot was $180, if I bet $130 to put Cutoff all in and he calls, the SB needs 23% equity to call with a FD. She has about 20% so shes barely making a mistake to call and wont be making a mistake at all if she hits the flush and I pay her off.
When I bet $200, she needs 28% equity to call with the FD. Im not saying $200 is correct by any means, but that was my logic. I think I like just jamming it all in better because I do think she would call with a FD at least half the time.
It was too complicated to assess all 3 ranges in their entirety in pokerstove, but from what I got, it was around 15-17% so calling $130 is still a huge mistake. I would have personally bet $140 but not a huge difference.
You're not taking into account that the other caller often has NFD/2NFD and combo draws as well and thus blocks her outs, and thus her call is extremely terrible and a huge mistake with anything but a non NFD even if you bet $130. Her equity given that CO calls drops quite a lot. ie conditional probability. I mean if CO folds and she calls your bet, she's not making that big of a mistake but I'm going off your assumption that your bet puts CO AI > he calls > she ........
$140 or OB all-in as others have stated make more sense than $200 imo.
Last edited by Minatorr; 02-12-2019 at 09:55 PM.