yeah thats what i was saying, pretty sure most ppl say bet solely for that reason. But if you think about it River doesnt get much easier

Ya not a great spot but I don't hate how u played it, as long as it isn't you going into auto pilot. If you are really seen as nit firing a second barrel when the A hits has got to be good for you a lot if the time. So what if he folds his small pp and random pairs + gut shots, it beats having the pot possibly stolen from you on the turn. I think a lot of the time he is checking back the river
The check raise idea seemed terrible given stack sizes, the check call line isn't horrible but why not lead instead and set ur own price for show down. I think the trick is to make sure u are mixing up the lines you take and not play scared poker on the off chance villian called 3/4 pot bet to float you with random Ax hands that you are representing yourself.

not sure why ppl saying only value he has is floated Ax. the Ax gives him a lot of 2pair combos a ton actually since he likely plays Axo and he has sets + straights.

just saw this. I decided to c/f because i wasnt sure what he does with his SDV hands. The problem is should i be assuming by DEFAULT that ppl would turn some SDV into bluffs here? because if he does turn weak 6x 77 type hands into bluffs its snapple

or do i adjust only once i see it.

i guess your saying waiting for reads is better right?

I just think people who bet worse in this spot stand out because they are so rare. If you haven't noticed anything out of ordinary from this gut yet I juat don't think he has enough hands you beat to continue.

People are checking back showdown value here sooooooooo often, that I am fine giving up when they bet.

This is obv super exploitable by anybody good who you play with a lot but there are not many of them about.

So it is not "we can't call without reads/wait for a better spot etc bull**** logic. It is that my experience of the player pool is that it is a bad call! Of course this is a bluff some %, just too infrequently.

I mean I think we have the best hand on the turn a whole bunch obv but not when more money goes in the pot that changes totally, IME.

I'd expect a barrel to be profitable with air BTW, cause he is just folding so much of his range on this turn

I like your line. Considering villain sees you as somewhat nitty reg, he going to have you on overs a good portion of the time. To me this screams villain floated with an Ax type hand and hit his turn.

I think that you don't forfeit much value with the c/f line, as most pp's will check through behind you. After all this is 1/2 live, and unless you have a read on villain as being super aggressive/bluffing, I think its a safe fold.

As for Grindhog's advice of check-raise? LOL! No way you can stack of into his random Ax two pair!

A lot of overanalyzing going on here.

Don't worry about balancing, take that out of the equation. 1/2 players don't notice those intricate details. Also, that turn card sucks, it mashed his range, so check folding is okay. If he had a hand like 88 he would check it back. When he bets we are beat 90% of the time and we should fold.

Only thing that changes the above thought process would be a solid read on Villain after a nice chunk of hands played together.

NH WP

Ok welll I wish there were such simple minded players where I play but it happens to be filled with sold regs that pounce on weakness. If the V is capable of floating with A highs how is he not capable of betting the turn with air and other weak hands he knows are beat when he sinces weakness. Maybe he is able to put you on exactly what you have after you check the turn... A pp scared of the ace. After all the A is a great card to bluff.