1-3NLH Wynn/Encore 9 handed table
Hero EP(1100) sat down recently raised one hand AK everyone folded I showed
Villain CO (1200) Asian Lady has played several hands since I sat down


Hero opens $15 with TT Villain 3bets to $40 Hero calls. I did not feel that it would be appropriate to 4bet since she will only continue with a range that has me crushed.
Pot($80) Flop JT6 Hero checks, I did not want to scare her off a smaller pair and let her feel confident with QQ-AA.
Villain bets $50, at this point she can have a lot in her range (JJ-AA,66,AJ-QJ, KQ and less likely but possible 77-99,AQ and AK). Since a lot will contiue to a raise and I do not want to give any free cards I decide to raise to $130. Villain looks back at her cards and pretty quickly puts in the call
Pot($340) Turn 4 Hero($930) leads out 2 black chips ($200), Villain tank calls. I am fairly confident she does not have JJ as she would have raised turn, she should not have AQ or AK unless she has the flush draw as well.
River A Pot($740) Hero leads out $300 trying to get value from my set as there are very few hands that beat me now and Villain pretty quickly announces "all-in" the pot is now ~$2,000 and it is my remaining $630 to call giving me a little better than 3:1, Hero?

I would have bet into the raiser on the flop. First, if V had a hand, you're looking fit her to raise, so you can reraise all in. Second, there's a possible straight showing ... I would play this fast.

At this point, you're basically committed. Call and get ready to reload.

Raise more on the flop. Stacks should have gone in on the river. More on the turn and river.

Your weak sizing sets up a gross spot on the river. Villain reps AA. She only needs one worse combo to make calling correct. Maybe she overvalue AK. She could have KQ, but most low stakes players don't 3! KQ. Call.

This is tough.

I think unless we have any other info, we have to assume a tight 3 bet range - AA-QQ, AK, and we also have to assume that a river raise is strong.

This smells like AA that got there on the river. Is there enough overplayed AK, or bluffs or random stuff? Could she have 3-bet KQ?

Any other reads? Old/Young? How she might view you?

I think I probably lean towards a fold, but it's close.

She is a middle aged Asian lady with several pieces of jewelry and what looks like an expensive watch. She has played more than her share of hands but I have only been at the table for about 2 orbits

She is capable of 3betting more than the standard AK, JJ+, smaller pairs AQ KQ are all possible for her to 3bet from CO since she can squeeze out the button and get position.

I should have probably raised more OTF push out anything that might be a draw AK, AQ, and KQ, but I did not want to scare off Top Pair AJ-QJ.

Wow - this seems way more sophisticated than the average 1-3 person. I've been reading a lot of Miller's book recently, and the Bayesian inference piece is really interesting. He uses the case example of the pool of players who 3-bet wide at 1-2 is 5% or less, and given no/few observations you should assume tight 3-bet range.

Has she 3-bet several times in those orbits? What makes us think she's 3 betting things like KQ and small PPs?

I hear people post on 2+2 a lot that in 1-2 and 1-3 players only 3bet AK, JJ+, but I would argue that might be true for a novice/inexperienced player but players with a reasonable amount of experience are willing to 3bet a wider range than the standard AK, JJ+. These days in Vegas there are many players who are capable of making wider 3bets, not everybody but I can not just auto eliminate everything TT, AQ or less.

You are thinking about this incorrectly.

Flop raise needs to be bigger so you can get stacks in on the river.

Stop worrying about draws.
Stop thinking you need to charge draws.
Start getting excited when you have the nuts and only think about how you are getting all of the money in the middle.

Stacks don't seem to add up. Hero has $930 on the turn, bets $200 on turn and bets $300 river. Should have $430 remaining? Giving much better odds.

I think we need to size (all streets) but especially our turn and river accordingly and with a plan. Meaning we should bet turn with a plan on what cards we are jamming with on the river, what cards we might check on the river (if any) etc. if we decide we want to bet/fold to a jam on he river then we must size our river bet accordingly.

As played think we gotta just call it off. Think we're beat a ton obviously but given odds we gotta call it off (I'm assuming we have $400 remaining and not $630).

But we really need to be considering future turn/river run outs on prior streets especially when super deep

You are correct I had closer to 400 OTR giving me closer to 5:1
My plan was not to have a one pair hand fold so I kept the bet sizing down.
Pretty sure I'm beat OTR but I'm not good enough to fold

I suck at deepstack, but...

Preflop is mehish, imo. We ended up paying $40 to see a flop HU OOP. Ya, we're getting very good implied odds. But unless we're playing against morons, being HU OOP without initiative is unlikely to be profitable.

SPR is about 13ish. I would have simply hoped her 3bet is turning her hand face up as a big overpair and just donk/donk/donked for PSBs on each street to play for stacks by the river.

As played, I think the turn bet is too small as it leaves us with a very large PSB left for the river; at this point we could bet a lot more to have her more easily commited by the river.

Other than the A , this is literally the worst river. KQ got there. AA got there. JJ was already there. We only beat KK/QQ and now those hands are trying to figure out what they are beating. I guess AJ improved, and an unlikely combo-wise AT. Overall, I would be betting fairly small here to entice the most likely poorish hands like KK/QQ to call. I think a bet << 1/2 PSB is a decent sizing. I would sigh fold to the raise. We beat AJ/AT, and unless she is ******ed, she doesn't have that.

GsucksatdeepstackG

Sizing sucks. Bigger everywhere except as played I'd b/f less on the river.

AP, you better ask yourself what can she be shoving for value worse than 3rd set...and fold..and bet less otr...and don't ck-r flop...try leading 3 streets or ck-r turn huge..and then ask yourself again what hands can she be shoving for value worse than 3rd set...and then fold again. You just gave that woman $650 on the stone worst river where you only might get value from exactly two hands only sometimes ...that should make you sick.

ya B/F is pretty bad vs described villain as she doesnt do this with worse for value and doubt shes bluffing.

C/R Bigger and bet bigger OTT though.

Is it appropriate to add, under the circumstances (i.e. thread: solved, over, etc.), I love it when the asian ladies run hot...

River is the nut low for you - even if you aren't behind, it's going to hurt how much you can get value. But I wouldn't play the river much differently - perhaps B/f like 230. Folding would be super hard. But KQ is definitely in your range, so its scary to see villain shoving.

Like others said, bet more on earlier streets, especially on that c/r OOP

Aside from AJ she really doesn't jam worse on this river and she has no reason to considering the strength you've shown.. She jams AK here? unlikely. Trust the visual reads you picked up, her checking her cards otf and tank calling turn. Her play screams KQ