Quote:
Originally Posted by philepistemer
Edit: wow my intuitions were totally off here. If the opener is opening like 15% of hands and continues with 3.5% and the short stack takes this line with [AA-55, AK-AT, KQ-KJ, QJ], JJ is only +$5.6 as a cib/fold and TT loses like $29. This is a fold.
Glad you ran the maths on this. I'm surprised but not flabbergasted that CiB/f loses money with TT given those assumptions. I'd expect the short-stacker's range to be weighted a bit against the bottom of the range you gave him, but I'd also expect V1 to find a fold with AK/QQ a decent percentage of the time, so without running any numbers myself, I'd imagine they hover vaguely around where you have them.
I certainly would not do this with 88, though 99 seems closer to me than your math suggests. I would also be inclined to flat/fold AQo as I think this hand's EV improves with more callers, and our position isn't going to be much of a disadvantage with the dry side.