2/5 Villian is 30’s wg, ABC grinder. Has bluffs in his range but for the most part plays straight forward. V has ~$650 and is effective stack.

Limp UTG, V limps UTG +3, limp, I raise to $35 with AJo on the button. Sb cold calls and V calls.

Flop AJ5 rainbow. ($115)

Check check and I bet 55.
Call call.

Turn is a blank ($280) (for some reason this is a crazy block in my memory)
Sb checks and V bets 100.

This is crazy warning bells for me. I consider raising but not sure I want to commit myself.

I call and SB folds.

River Q ($480)

V shoves $470
Hero?

Ouch. That sucks. How does he see you? Vs. a good, ABC grinder who plays straightforward, I think you are toast or chopping. When all else fails, follow your gut. (Seriously.)

Now, if he thinks you are a LAG, etc., it might be a different story.

Why can't Villain be value betting worse? Whatever the turn card was could have easily given him 2 pair.

If you're folding here you are only calling sets OTR? He could just put you on AK and want to get max value. You only have to be right like 30-35% of the time. I'm calling.

You are also more likely to chop (4 combos of AJo) then run into a set (3 combos of 55).

Sorry the guy next to me just said it was a 2 on the turn.

It’s orobably a tie between V and me for tightest perceived image at the table.

The problem with threads like this is the reads given and different peoples interpretations of them. IMO there is no "ABC grinder" that limp/calls $35 with A5 or A2. That violates the definition of an ABC grinder.....so if hes really an ABC grinder, then fold. If he could really have A5s or A2s then call.

That's why you just default to GTO unless you have a bunch of history with someone. We are too high up in our range to fold.

I didnt say I would fold. I said if this villain is really an ABC grinder then I would fold. OP says hes an ABC grinder, so OP apparently has enough hours with the guy to use his read. If the guy shows up with A2s or A5s, he needs to work on his reads which is a major problem for most people who are normally staring at their phones more than the game when they aren't in a hand.

An actual "ABC grinder" is many times more likely to have 55 here.

How often would you say this guy is bluffing here. 0%-5% of the time? Or just 0%?

This is hard for me to wrap my head around, but you guys have way more live experience then me. It's just crazy that we can narrow down an opponents range to literally one specific hand. I guess players are that face up?

Now I am talking myself into making an exploitative fold, even though it is beyond awful in theory. I guess if he is playing exploitative (.i.e. never bluff in this spot) then we can make exploitative plays too.

It’s a 0% chance he limps with the idea to create a 3 Street bluff on a tight regular showing strength on every street. And OOP at that.

And he racked up and moved tables shortly after.
And he watches movies on his iPad.

He has 55.....or I guess he could have AJs.

Okay what suits do you have and what Ace and Jack suits are on the flop. I need to see if AJs is even possible.

If you were about to leave you could fold and show. That would be amazing.

This is a line I've started taking much more often live. Donking the turn, bombing the river. The donk usually comes when I pick up equity on the turn or when I believe pre-flop raiser can be capped. Also very opponent-dependent.

It is actually INSANE how often it works, because this spot is severely underbluffed, especially when the bdfd doesn't actually come in.

Let's assign some suits to OP's example:

Hero AJ
Villain 45

Board AJ52Q

Now if I'm villain...overlimp/call pre with 4s5s is questionable but not awful. Flop call is fine. Now...lead turn when you pick up a gutshot and fd with the intention of following through on (nearly) all rivers. Hero is somewhat capped here (has very few flushes and K10). Puts hero in a tough spot.

It's a great play because you should be well balanced as well, because you'll also be leading turn for value some % of the time, and you'll also get there on the river some % as well.

Not saying villain in OP is doing this...in fact almost no one is...but it's something I've had good results with

I like that line and I think it will work pretty well against a lot of people (if you know who to use it against) but a guy watching a movie on his ipad all day isn't doing that.

Even if he isn't bluffing, he could be overplaying a weaker two pair so I think its a call. GTO isn't really applicable in most of these spots but this may be one of them.

The preflop raiser isn’t capped though which is what makes this such a weird play. I would expect this turn donk to be pretty value heavy when a tight player opens over limps pre, and bets an A high dry board multiway. If he’s really an ABC reg this is probably just 55 all day that worries you would check back some aces on the turn. I suppose he could have turned two pair with A2s but the river shove would be really bizarre with that hand. On a brick river he can shove A2 but now he just beats AK/AT and a few suited aces that you squeezed.

Against an unknown I probably just call though since we can beat overplayed A2/A5. On a brick river I wouldn’t even say those hands are being overplayed. This is just too strong to fold without reads.

Make sure to make a mental note that he has a lead range here in a spot where he really shouldn’t have much of one and take advantage of it.

I question your read based on your flop sizing and villain turn sizing

I agree with the majority consensus that you’re up against 55 or at best chopping here. Given your description of V and given his line, I think laying this down isn’t actually that terrible. Sometimes going with your intuition is the best move even when it seems counterintuitive.
Badreg makes some good points above about noting this lead range. Pay attention to how he plays these spots with huge hands against other people too. Most V’s don’t change up their play as much as they should in general, and against different players they’ll play hands the same way regardless of opponents tendencies.

What is your read?
What could V realistically have here that we beat except for A-5 suited specifically of which there are only 2 exact combos.